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Arctic cold/LES


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I'm baffled by the absolute love/desire for way below zero temps and even lower windchills. What's neat about having -20 temps and -50 below zero windchills that cause so many problems (dead cars, frozen pipes, insane heating bills, hypothermia and death) and that you can't really enjoy being out in anyway?

To each their own, but it's always been a head scratcher for me when I see people getting stoked for..... really cold weather. Where nothing is going on action wise, except it's really cold outside....

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19 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I'm baffled by the absolute love/desire for way below zero temps and even lower windchills. What's neat about having -20 temps and -50 below zero windchills that cause so many problems (dead cars, frozen pipes, insane heating bills, hypothermia and death) and that you can't really enjoy being out in anyway?

To each their own, but it's always been a head scratcher for me when I see people getting stoked for..... really cold weather. Where nothing is going on action wise, except it's really cold outside....

It’s a rare weather anomaly to have the Polar Vortex dislodged so far south into the mid latitudes.  Some folks don’t mind the cold (like me and many others on here). Just to experience something of that magnitude is a memory one will never forget.  Same goes for Heat...why do some people like 115F+ heat?  I had to deal with that type of Heat last summer for days on end in Arizona.  

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

It’s a rare weather anomaly to have the Polar Vortex dislodged so far south into the mid latitudes.  Some folks don’t mind the cold (like me and many others on here). Just to experience something of that magnitude is a memory one will never forget.  Same goes for Heat...why do some people like 115F+ heat?  I had to deal with that type of Heat last summer for days on end in Arizona.  

104° in 2012 is the highest temperature I’ve recorded here since 1996, but of course it’s probably much more of a humid heat than in Phoenix and therefore just as bad! The argument I usually make is I could easily survive sitting out under a shade tree for awhile at 100°+, but doing the same with heavy outerwear in below 0°f would freeze me to death before long, especially if windy. In pioneer times I sure would not have wanted to live in Iowa in winter! Back then they sometimes struggled to survive. Bitter cold can also be very unhandy for a livestock farmer depending on the setup.

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I'm baffled by the absolute love/desire for way below zero temps and even lower windchills. What's neat about having -20 temps and -50 below zero windchills that cause so many problems (dead cars, frozen pipes, insane heating bills, hypothermia and death) and that you can't really enjoy being out in anyway?

To each their own, but it's always been a head scratcher for me when I see people getting stoked for..... really cold weather. Where nothing is going on action wise, except it's really cold outside....

Grew up in Minny. Ice Fishing, winter camping ALL of it.Nothing was ever to cold, just not correct gear.  I've slept outside in -40F - made snow forts in the Boundary Waters on 4 night winter trips in middle of FEB. I guess its' in my blood. But the biggest reason I love extreme cold is I heat my home with 2 wood burners and have been heating with wood every place I have lived outside college etc.... It's challenge when it's -20F out not to flip a switch and get heat but rather do it the olde fashioned way. Something in my blood, I guess, my wife thinks I'am odd but shes the first to gather around a stoked wood stove coming in from the cold. And btw-  extreme Heat kills more and does way more damage than  extreme cold. And yeah- I got make run to the wood shed-

PXL_20210204_212125471.jpg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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7 minutes ago, Sparky said:

104° in 2012 is the highest temperature I’ve recorded here since 1996, but of course it’s probably much more of a humid heat than in Phoenix and therefore just as bad! The argument I usually make is I could easily survive sitting out under a shade tree for awhile at 100°+, but doing the same with heavy outerwear in below 0°f would freeze me to death before long, especially if windy. In pioneer times I sure would not have wanted to live in Iowa in winter! Back then they sometimes struggled to survive. Bitter cold can also be very unhandy for a livestock farmer depending on the setup.

I'd trade 115F dry heat vs 104F heat with high humidity any day of the week.  I agree with you that bitter cold can be more dangerous than heat if your NOT prepared.  NOAA says heat kills more people than cold does.  Regarding this upcoming cold spell, the duration of it is concerning and may cause more implications.  In recent PV visits, it came and went in 2 days top, but this coming cold spell could last almost a week long caused by all the blocking we have ongoing.  It'll be cold, no doubt about it, but at the same time, it's going to be a memorable experience.

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5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Grew up in Minny. Ice Fishing, winter camping ALL of it.Nothing was ever to cold, just not correct gear.  I've slept outside in -40F - made snow forts in the Boundary Waters on 4 night winter trips in middle of FEB. I guess its' in my blood. But the biggest reason I love extreme cold is I heat my home with 2 wood burners and have been heating with wood every place I have lived outside college etc.... It's challenge when it's -20F out not to flip a switch and get heat but rather do it the olde fashioned way. Something in my blood, I guess, my wife thinks I'am odd but shes the first to gather around a stoked wood stove coming in from the cold.

PXL_20210204_212125471.jpg

Even with part of your face exposed? Breathing bitter cold air almost freezes my nostrils, or it feels funny! Lol

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6 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Even with part of your face exposed? Breathing bitter cold air almost freezes my nostrils, or it feels funny! Lol

Usually right around the zero mark my nose hairs start freezing and it's not painful but just uncomfortable enough to notice lol. Only thing I don't like about temps like that. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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OAX seems impressed with the cold coming. 

 

Temperatures throughout this forecast might be the bigger story
than snow. Today marks the beginning of a long stretch of cold
air. By Saturday 850mb temperatures crash into the teens below
zero. There is no end in sight, and in fact it only gets worse.
Longer-range guidance shows 850mb temperatures falling,
potentially, to 25 to 30 below zero by next Friday and Saturday
with an impressive surface high pressure area of 1051 mb. Looking
back at past weather balloon data for our office shows we`ve
never recorded an 850mb temperature of -30C or colder in February.
Even if we don`t see that dramatic of cold air, it`ll still be
well-below normal through the middle part of month and will
likely continue thereafter. For what it is worth, -30C at 850mb
would translate to daytime highs below zero, or colder.
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Extreme cold could harm my bushes and trees, which it did a couple years ago when Cedar Rapids hit -30º.  The rhododendron failed to bloom that spring and the serviceberry trees failed to produce berries.  I don't want that to happen again.  However, as a weather geek extreme cold is interesting.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18 minutes ago, Tom said:

Pound Town!  @Stacshis near there also so he must be getting hit pretty hard also.

Pic doesn’t do it justice.  Off and on heavy squalls.  Banding setting up right over my neighborhood, then fluctuating 5 miles north/south.   Really adding up.  18.4 degrees.  Haven’t measured.  But our stone wall that’s about 3ft high is drifted over.  I think we hit 12” by Sunday.  Probably 8-10” depth.  

2DE6DFE9-13F3-475F-B183-AEBE3D34F845.jpeg

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Models are still trying to figure out what will happen with the heart of the PV cold, if/when it will drop down through our region.  The 12z GFS once again drops the motherlode down through the midwest.  It has -36ºC at 850 mb, and record-tying cold at the surface, over Iowa Saturday morning.  That's still a week out, though.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Pic doesn’t do it justice.  Off and on heavy squalls.  Banding setting up right over my neighborhood, then fluctuating 5 miles north/south.   Really adding up.  18.4 degrees.  Haven’t measured.  But our stone wall that’s about 3ft high is drifted over.  I think we hit 12” by Sunday.  Probably 8-10” depth.  

2DE6DFE9-13F3-475F-B183-AEBE3D34F845.jpeg

What is your location???

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Arctic cold is arriving as the CF has rolled on through. Teens outta do it for high temps and lows in the S.D's. Even colder air possible by late next week.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

Posted above 

I know your are in West Mi, but what county??

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Don't think if seen 474 thickness levels that far S in mid FEB. Only 1996 and that was Feb 2nd 3rd. The stratosphere is literally about 1/2 to 2/3rds  closer than in the summer. Unreal when you think about. prateptype_cat.conus.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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This is from TOP AFD this afternoon. I agree it has been some time since we last had a long lasting cold snap with highs generally in the teens for days. Possibly back to the early 1980s though I guess I could be forgetting something since then.

"...Beyond Sunday, little change in the pattern is expected with continued bitter cold and periods of snow chances. Wind chill values are expected to range from -10 to -20 each morning next week. This magnitude and duration of bitter cold has not been seen in eastern KS for quite some time. Now is the time to take those precautions to ensure your home/vehicle has been properly winterized along with extra blankets/coats in your vehicle."

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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DMX actually mentions the word "historic" in length of brutal cold-

Higher confidence that the Arctic high center will drop south over
Iowa on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures may crash Tuesday
night if prime radiational cooling conditions do develop considering
the deep snow pack. This is the time period where going overnight
low temperatures may be too "warm" and may need to be lowered if
trends persist. Another system looks favored to move across Iowa
again late Wed/Thu with more light snow chances followed by the
Arctic high forcing south into Iowa once again to end the week.
Temperatures Sunday through next week will feature high temperatures
in above/below zero north and low teens south with overnight lows
well below zero. While any individual night may not have record
cold, the length of these temperatures at forecast levels may
approach historic levels. Stay tuned and bundle up!
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 hours ago, mlgamer said:

This is from TOP AFD this afternoon. I agree it has been some time since we last had  a long lasting cold snap with highs generally in the teens for days. Possibly back to the early 1980s though I guess I could be forgetting something since then.

 

Around here December of 1983 is historic. I don’t think this cold will match that, but the length is comparable. 

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DMX talking Polar Vortex!

The forecast the next 7 days is dealing with the prolong Arctic cold
and the numerous snow chances. The polar vortex is essentially
dropping straight south from the Arctic north and will hang out over
Canada into the Northern Plains with several waves dropping the cold
air into Iowa. Begin to have wind chills drop at or below wind chill
criteria (-20) over far northern Iowa tonight with little
improvement during the day Saturday before falling further and
approaching warning criteria (-30) Saturday night. Will issue a Wind
Chill Advisory for that area tonight through Sunday morning. The
plan is to expand the areal coverage of the advisory for Sat night
with later forecasts and potential upgrade a portion to warning.
Additional wind chill headlines possible into next week. The deep
snow pack should slow frost depth penetration but water pipes
under snow free surfaces could freeze or break. Ice depths on
rivers and streams will increase and may increase the ice jam risk
in March.
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I went below 0 a few hours ago. My nws point forecast doesn't get back to 0 until next Friday.

It doesn't look like any extreme over night lows thanks to the wind. But I would take a calm -40 over a windy -20f.  In fact the coldest feeling stretch of weather I can recall was actually mid December 2013 where the wind howled for days but the temp never dropped below -20.

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48 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

I went below 0 a few hours ago. My nws point forecast doesn't get back to 0 until next Friday.

It doesn't look like any extreme over night lows thanks to the wind. But I would take a calm -40 over a windy -20f.  In fact the coldest feeling stretch of weather I can recall was actually mid December 2013 where the wind howled for days but the temp never dropped below -20.

Temps will probably get colder than forecasted where you are because of snowpack, same for most of Western MN. 

We traded extreme once-in-five-years cold, for sustained moderately below normal temps with NW flow and a tight pressure gradient. That's gonna literally blow. I'm surprised FGF turned the warning into an advisory as North as they did.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Tonight's 00z Euro is much less cold through the run.  This run never does bring the PV down into the US.  Past runs suggested we could go double-digits below zero every morning next week.  The new run has us well below zero Sunday morning, but then actually above zero for much of the rest of the run.  The high temp gets back into the teens, or even 20º, later in the week.

Meanwhile, the GFS is brutally cold following the Thursday wave.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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