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Arctic cold/LES


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44 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Full sun. -13°F, wind chill -38°F.

Yes, Full sun! Makes such a difference and what makes Feb arctic air so much more tolerable than Nov-Mid January when it doesn't get fully light til 9am and by 3pm the shadows are already long. Sun today was fully up by 8am and stays light til 4:30pm before the shadows get long.

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1 minute ago, Beltrami Island said:

Yes, Full sun! Makes such a difference and what makes Feb arctic air so much more tolerable than Nov-Mid January when it doesn't get fully light til 9am and by 3pm the shadows are already long. Sun today was fully up by 8am and stays light til 4:30pm before the shadows get long.

The wind kinda cancels out any potential benefit the sun would have lol. It's like being in the shade on a summer day with a DP of 75.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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GFS with 3rd run in a row of having -28F at DSM next Sunday Morning. Not likely with current placement of temp sensor (at airport) as even in the Great Cold of early FEB 96' it got to -26F while -47 in NE IOWA and -60F in Minny and I believe -fifty something in WI (All - ALL TIME records for states)

DSM coldest low ever was -30F on JAN 5th 1884, measured in a river valley at Fort Des Moines. And people wonder why so many cold records are held from the 1800's?  Check sensor placement- it's not apples to apples.-- or even measured the same way. Rant over..

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Not a single positive temp in my grid.

Quote
Overnight
Mostly clear, with a low around -21. Wind chill values as low as -40. North northwest wind around 10 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -8. Wind chill values as low as -40. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -19. Wind chill values as low as -35. West northwest wind around 9 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near -3. Wind chill values as low as -35. West wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around -15. West wind 10 to 13 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near -1. West wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -14. West northwest wind around 10 mph.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near -3. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -18. Northwest wind around 11 mph.
Thursday
Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -5. Northwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -19. Northwest wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Friday
Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -7. Northwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -20. Northwest wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near -1. Northwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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22 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Not a single positive temp in my grid.

 

Well, you planned on living up near Fargo for a winter season and now your getting a taste of what you came for.  While your lacking in the snow dept, your certainly getting a taste of the "Nanook From the North"!  How's the experience been so far?  I stepped outside not long ago and got a taste of my 1st sub-zero reading of -1F.  

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The low was -20*F here. Could have gotten much lower if it weren't for the wind. It was -28*F where @Beltrami Islandlives. -30 in Park Rapids which is a normal cold spot.

Atm, it's -11*F owing to greater than expected sunlight. 

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Euro looking quite balmy on Sun/Mon. Haha. At least compared to the GFS which has a high of -6 on Sunday. Trade off is that Euro has more snow around that time frame. Still model madness for next weekend. 

1612699200-m3T6S3Ipq5I.png

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

The low was -20*F here. Could have gotten much lower if it weren't for the wind. It was -28*F where @Beltrami Islandlives. -30 in Park Rapids which is a normal cold spot.

Atm, it's -11*F owing to greater than expected sunlight. 

I think -30 is about the floor for temps until the winds calm down for me.

The sun has warmed my home  thermometer to -7.  

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This cold wave might rival Dec. of 1983 when it is finally over.  Both had deep snowpacks.  Both will be long in nature.   Dec. 1983 happened when the amount of daylight hours is the shortest, and sun angle is at a minimum.  I will have to find information on wind chills from 1983.  Temps this coming weekend will rival the lowest temps of that cold wave for sure, Central Nebraska wise.

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This cold wave might rival Dec. of 1983 when it is finally over.  Both had deep snowpacks.  Both will be long in nature.   Dec. 1983 happened when the amount of daylight hours is the shortest, and sun angle is at a minimum.  I will have to find information on wind chills from 1983.  Temps this coming weekend will rival the lowest temps of that cold wave for sure, Central Nebraska wise.

Was thinking the same thing. That by far is the gold standard when it comes to bitter cold. There was a week straight leading up to x-mas where temps never rose above zero. I remember a stretch in Jan. of 1996 that was pretty bad but not as long in duration as this event. Pretty amazing seeing what the models are forecasting for this coming weekend with temps. 

 

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This cold wave might rival Dec. of 1983 when it is finally over.  Both had deep snowpacks.  Both will be long in nature.   Dec. 1983 happened when the amount of daylight hours is the shortest, and sun angle is at a minimum.  I will have to find information on wind chills from 1983.  Temps this coming weekend will rival the lowest temps of that cold wave for sure, Central Nebraska wise.

Snow pack looks like Dec 83 for sure. Lincoln spent a week straight below zero and clocked in a -27 reading. I think in terms of cold in may be more similar to Dec 89/Feb 96 even though snow depth was lower. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I agree with everyone comparing this stretch of weather to December 1983. If nothing else, it certainly reminds me of winters in the 1970s, early 1980s where we regularly had very cold spells in these parts. Pretty amazing.

 

 

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Record breaking cold for KC this weekend.

Climate...
Issued at 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2021

Record breaking cold is forecast for this coming Valentines
weekend. The maximum temperature forecast for Kansas City
International on Saturday February 13th is 5 F. This would tie the
daily cold maximum record set in 1905. Sunday morning, February
14th, Valentines Day, the low is forecast to reach -12 F, if this
forecast holds, it will break the record low temperature or -4 F
set in 1936. Additionally, the forecast high on Valentine`s day is
currently 4 F, this would set a new cold maximum record, breaking
the previous cold max of 7 F set in 1936.
 

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NWS Hastings and North Platte have already issued Wind Chill Advisories for tomorrow morning.  WC of -25 will be common.  They mention more advisories and WC warnings are likely later in the week.  I believe when it gets to WC Warning, schools are closed, as they don't want to take a chance at kids standing at bus stops or if you car has problems.  

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59 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Record breaking cold for KC this weekend.

Topeka has not gotten down to -10 in 20 years (Jan 2, 2001) and is currently not forecast to but it is not out of the question.  The brutal cold everywhere is even more remarkable considering how warm the winter has been, since early November really.

Edit: My NWS point forecast now shows -11 for Sunday morning.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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You know it's a cold week when 13 is the mild day. OAX is usually conservative with mid range temps and they already have it pretty low.

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -9. Wind chill values as low as -17. North northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Tuesday
Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 8. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 6 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 6. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 13. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. North northeast wind around 7 mph.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 8.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6.
Friday
A chance of snow, mainly after noon. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 2.
Friday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -10.
Saturday
A slight chance of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -17.
Sunday
Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 1.
Sunday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8.
Washington's Birthday
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 11.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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This would be new to me. I have never experienced two or more consecutive days of below zero temps. 

Friday
A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 0.
Friday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -12.
Saturday
A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -3.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -19.
Sunday
Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -1.
Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -9.
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11 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Amazing that the model is picking up on the snow that’s on the ground vs bare ground. Montana, North Dakota down to the south east through the central part of South Dakota have brown grass.....

F0FA2E1A-7407-4FAF-9315-02895D4A2BF6.jpeg

Ironically, even though it accounts for the bare ground over the dakotas pretty well. It treats lake winnepig as open water, moderating temps over it, even though the lake is long frozen over.

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