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The -50F has been confirmed. It was at a lodge on Snowbank Lake- an entry point to the great Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness.

Lincoln got down to -31 this morning, the second coldest ever recorded there! -30 degrees was common in South Central Nebraska. My weather station had -25 for the min this morning. 

We didn't get the extreme cold lows, but Cedar Rapids officially spent 108 consecutive hours below zero, ending midday today.  That's the most since 1996.

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Models are pushing the coldest day to Monday now, euro still warmer than GFS though. School cancellations (including UNL) would be more of a possbility. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Shift towards bottoming out early week instead is apparent on 12z models. Even if it moderates a bit, it's just prolonging >5 degree temps. 

1612958400-H7YkHlj3rOQ.png

1612958400-MDlH3JfaWLY.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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2 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Models are pushing the coldest day to Monday now, euro still warmer than GFS though. School cancellations (including UNL) would be more of a possbility. 

Already talking around here of no school on Monday if these temps and wind chills verify. Principal mentioned in our school announcements this morning to dress warmly and be prepared for possible school activities being postponed or cancelled in the coming days. 

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4 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Models are pushing the coldest day to Monday now, euro still warmer than GFS though. School cancellations (including UNL) would be more of a possbility. 

It is interesting to note the continued pushback of the brutal cold. At one point it looked like this Thursday thru Saturday nights would be the worst. Then it pushed back to Saturday/Sunday. Now it's the beginning of next week.

I wouldn't mind avoiding sub -20 temperatures

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High was 13 today, looks like we'll likely stay below 10 for at least a week now. Basically going to be almost 2 weeks with highs in single digits or lower, barely above one day. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Anybody watching what looks to transpire in TX? Holy smokes!!   Looks like FEB 1899.  INSANE-- where did that troll go???  snku_acc.us_sc.pngsfct.us_sc.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Anybody watching what looks to transpire in TX? Holy smokes!!   Looks like FEB 1899.  INSANE-- where did that troll go???  snku_acc.us_sc.pngsfct.us_sc.png

That would shut down the state.  They don't have the equipment to deal with that.

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GFS pushing it even further back. -17 Mon morning and then -27! Tues morning. Definitely going to get bitter cold but -20s numbers are getting less beliveable as we can't even get them within day 5. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Another shot late next week?  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

GFS now showing sub zero lows for many next Thursday/Fri- the 18-19th. Just like the graphic shows.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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After a "mild" morning, KLNK is at -1 before midnight. It's going be a long streak of consecutive sub zero lows. Not sure what the record is. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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59 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

GFS pushing it even further back. -17 Mon morning and then -27! Tues morning. Definitely going to get bitter cold but -20s numbers are getting less beliveable as we can't even get them within day 5. 

Yep always 5 days away... now has lows “only” in the negative single digits this weekend.

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6 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep always 5 days away... now has lows “only” in the negative single digits this weekend.

Even if we don't get -20s, the duration of the cold snap will be historic if nothing else. Not complaining, it'd be cool to experience, but frostbite pontential within 10 minutes is a little scary.  

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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2 hours ago, Madtown said:

well news said last night's  low was -27 again. sitting at -19atm let's go for 30 tonight!!!

Febrrrrruary....fresh snow cover, light winds and Arctic HP working its magic...

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In the following graphic you can see the extreme cold in N.MN. If you look to the NW you will see Baudette,MN (KBDE). The missing dewpoint is not an error. It's because it's an ASOS site (likely more accurate than an AWOS site) and dewpoints at ASOS sites -40 and greater are NILL. That's because the technology in the sensor in obtaining a wet bulb (and hence dewpoint) past -40F is nearly impossible when one understands the actual physics going on. Ever whip a sling psychromter around dampened at the end to obtain the true wet bulb at -10F? It's basically impossible. Even modern technology struggles at this and a reason to question temps/dew points at or below -40F. This is a reason why many low temps (though I mildly disagree) get thrown out when coming from AWOS sites--- and why human mercury/alchol therms are the best in extreme temps. Automation - while great- loses info at the extremes. Put a human observer ( properly trained )  at KBDE and the dewpoint would likely be -42 to -44F.  Just an FYI.  How do you think they got DEw points like they did before automation - it was manual. Wet wick whipped on the bottom of thermometer. I'am old school- I get it, but these old school techniques and even thought are getting lost in automation which hasn't a clue when it thinks it does.  image.thumb.png.a1451eb28e5ff8d6bc068bc63ef02f06.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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-30 last night on the weather station guessing the official will be a few degrees colder as has been the case through this whole thing.

 

Balmy -27.9 currently. Its a dry cold though so doesn't feel as cold😀🤣🤣🤣🤣

16130535510298504724868900835551.jpg

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One thing I've noticed is the 12z GFS Mon morning -17 in Lincoln is with cloudy skies. Not windy, but a 5-10 mph breeze as well. So I guess it's relying purely on cold air advection which is very impressive. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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18 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Euro colder again. But above freezing by the 20th? 🌴

Most arctic air cold spells here in northern minnesota end with the coldest temps in the calm of the high pressure center the morning before it moves south and east.  The result is a return flow from the south over the next 36-48 hours that can warm temps 30-40-50 degrees in some cases.  The classic example is Feb 1996 when Tower MN set the state record low of -60.  Within a few days it was in the +40s for a temperature difference around 100 degrees. 

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6 hours ago, Madtown said:

Screenshot_20210211-104632_Facebook.jpg

Cotton is relatively new COOP site. It's very low, in a spruce bog. Most think it would have been colder than Tower in Feb 1996 when it got to -60F. Winter Campers measured -70F in spruce bog on FEB 3rd 1996. No joke.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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My area could fall to -5 to -10  at the hard of this "Arctic Air" mass by Monday nite. I dont think it will get as frigid as it did back in the Winter of 2013-14, when my temp here in Macomb dipped to a smashing -18F, but still frigid enough.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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DMX has my county staying  below zero from Saturday  5 pm through  Tuesday  noon.  If pans out it will no doubt be the longest  period  below  zero of my life.  My home has dropped  below zero 7 of the past 8 nights. 11 below being the lowest. 

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-36f this morning, coldest yet this arctic outbreak.  It was eerily calm out and actually pretty comfortable to be outside for brief times.  

If you have ever had a bad chest cold and start coughing just from taking a deep breath.  That is what breathing in deep at -30 or colder feels like when you first step outside.  

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May be an image of text that says 'FIRST ALERT STORMTEAM LOWEST WIND CHILLS TODAY LANGDON WALES -60° -56° EDMORE -52° CANDO CAVALIER -54° -50 MUNICH ROSEAU -53° ADAMS DEVILS LAKE -53° DONALDSON -48°'

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Some long standing records are going to be broke over the next several days.

.Climate...
Issued at 430 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2021

We will be watching for the potential for record low temperatures
each morning February 14 through February 16. The records for
Kansas City (since 1888) for that stretch are:

(2/14) -4 (1936)
(2/15) -6 (1936)
(2/16) -8 (1979)

Each day is forecast to either drop below those minimums or come
very close. Aside from record lows, we will also come close to breaking record
low max temperature records for all the above dates.

At St Joseph (since 1908) the respective records for February
13-16 are:

(2/14) -10 (1936)
(2/15) -9 (1936)
(2/16) -13 (1979)

Again, each day is expected to meet or drop below these record
lows. Aside from record lows, we will also come close to breaking record
low max temperature records for all the above dates.
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^ DSM just missed -2F was high - record is -4F 1905. But still D**n cold being measured at an airport compared to a river valley. Forecast high was 1F at late as noon.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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-7/-22 today at KFAR. Tomorrow will be the coldest day of the season.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Some long standing records are going to be broke over the next several days.


.Climate...
Issued at 430 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2021

We will be watching for the potential for record low temperatures
each morning February 14 through February 16. The records for
Kansas City (since 1888) for that stretch are:

(2/14) -4 (1936)
(2/15) -6 (1936)
(2/16) -8 (1979)

Each day is forecast to either drop below those minimums or come
very close. Aside from record lows, we will also come close to breaking record
low max temperature records for all the above dates.

At St Joseph (since 1908) the respective records for February
13-16 are:

(2/14) -10 (1936)
(2/15) -9 (1936)
(2/16) -13 (1979)

Again, each day is expected to meet or drop below these record
lows. Aside from record lows, we will also come close to breaking record
low max temperature records for all the above dates.

Making winter great again. :)

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27F and sunny this pm for a few hours. Toasty Mitt madness..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like a better morning for excellent radiaitional cooling across the Northland.  ( God's Country ) I'd expect similar temps - if not colder - than what MADTOWN posted 2 days ago. This I know- somewhere in N.MN (more likely-- esp Arrowheard) , or even Wisky is going to post a sub -50F temp in this stretch. The 10% chance is -55F.  I see no chance at any all time records because of the relative lack of snow depth compared to avgs.  add another foot and some fresh fallen, then you talking. Take a visit once to the Arrowhead of N.MN- it's alot like Oregon's W Coast- just different in Midwest stats. Hell of a place to grow up.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX nice write up with some humor:

So how is everyone`s February going other than cold, snow, snow,
cold, snow, cold, cold, cold, snow? Not much good news on the cold
as Arctic high pressure centered over Manitoba (yeah, it is not even
here yet), will settle south into the Dakotas late today/tonight,
then into northwest Iowa and Minnesota by Sunday night then linger
through Tuesday. What this means is even colder Arctic air will be
plunging south into Iowa and with a long wave trough carved out
across the Central and Northern Plains. With the lack of warm
advection, any warming will be reliant on a slowly modifying Arctic
air mass that will be extremely tedious. Yes, just referenced slow
twice in the same sentence. It is not many times that the
temperature at 10 kft is around 20 degrees warmer than at the
surface, amazing! Several record low max high temperatures are
likely to be broken through Monday and may touch a few record lows
but the amount of clouds and wind will prevent that tonight though
as high pressure nears Sunday night, there is some chance that clear
skies reach northwest Iowa with light winds and prime radiational
cooling conditions which could send temperatures plunging towards
-30 there.
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Good prediction grizzcoat. At least one prelim -50. Would not be surprised to see a few more from this am.

It's funny how ifalls has the reputation of icebox of the nation but there are actually much better locations for radiational cooling than where the airport is. Ifalls airport is a big flat area that's relatively open without much tall trees to block wind and allow the cold air to sink down. As opposed to the infamous Embarras area that sits in a low swamp surrounded by heavily forrester higher terrain that allows the dense cold air to sink into it.

 

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Full sun, -17°F. Light North wind will keep both wind chills and temps down. 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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***PRELIMINARY*** We may have set a new daily state record low temp for Feb 13 of -50 °F this morning at our COOP station, 25E Ely. We have several other stations in northern MN with low temps colder than -40!

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