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Super Bowl Weekend Multiple Waves


Tom

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It's been an interesting few days tracking this potential system as the models initially were flashing a wound up storm cutting NW and delivering a major storm but then lost it Day 5-7.   Suddenly, the models are now sniffing it back again in the medium range.  Over the years of tracking systems when a major pattern flip is under way, esp when we are dealing with the real deal surge of Arctic Air, the models have a difficult time figuring out waves along the thermal gradient.  With that being said, overnight guidance per the latest EPS has grown that a S stream energy will track along this arctic front up into the S MW/OHV.  This system has eyes for our KC/MO members into the Lower Lakes region and even possibly for our NE/IA members.  Let's discuss...

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00z Euro Control...

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Just now, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control continues to trend well.  More coverage this run.  I only have 10:1 available with this map.

1612764000-YeJiX3gwNQA.png

I’m glad to see the models are trending towards the original idea.  This one has that look to become a Big Dog.  Like you said, we finally have a real storm/Arctic connection in play.  I always enjoy powdery storms with wind.  Hope these trends continue!

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UKIE....12Z

 

Still likes KC somewhat....

3 inches of snow on this run

We just need a strong enough disturbance, won't need much moisture in 10-15 degree air to produce a good 2-4 inch snow. 

I really feel KC needs to score here in the next 2-3 weeks with all this cold air in the pattern. COME ON BABY!

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22 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

GFSv16...12Z

 

This model is my best friend right now. Beautiful snow totals for KC and other areas. 

Where are you seeing the GFSv16 12z run? It hasn't loaded on Pivotal Weather and isn't on Tropical Tidbits.

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Can I not be fringed? All I ask for. Just one time don't fringe me

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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47 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

GFSv16 12Z has not run yet and I'm on upgraded Pivotal Weather.  Must be some data issue, but I haven't gotten any updates.

Yeah, I was thinking @MIKEKC may have been referring to the 06z run.  And it was a wonder to behold so he was right there! 🙂

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro at 10:1 for weekend storm

1612720800-lM58UVtBS34.png

I didn't realize another thread had been fired up, so I  posted this in another one, but this would be a very high ratio event for many locations, so 10:1 will not do it justice most likely.  On Saturday night, the Euro has snow falling in areas with temps in the single digits to teens.  

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32 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Yeah, I was thinking @MIKEKC may have been referring to the 06z run.  And it was a wonder to behold so he was right there! 🙂

I've done that before.  I went back and checked a minute ago and it still says 06Z so I'm assuming we won't be getting the 12z.  Hopefully it loads for the 18z and 0z.

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29 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I didn't realize another thread had been fired up, so I  posted this in another one, but this would be a very high ratio event for many locations, so 10:1 will not do it justice most likely.  On Saturday night, the Euro has snow falling in areas with temps in the single digits to teens.  

I agree ratios will be much higher, I just don't have Kuchera available for The Euro Control.

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NOAA on board so far:

Model data continues to show a lobe of planetary vorticity, large
wavelength trough, swinging through the Great Lakes on Sunday. Recent
ECMWF runs show a direct hit with deeper synoptic moisture and
accumulating snow. Most noteworthy item for the time period is the
brutal arctic cold being advertised from Sunday through the middle
of next week.

Note: I just hope the EC does not steal the show.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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