Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said: the local met here in Kansas City just said that between saturday and monday system 8-13 inches is possible. fingers crossed! Which met? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Which met? Pretty sure it was Lezak. On facebook he had a GFS map showing much of northern MO with 8-13" by mon/tue and a Euro map showing less like 3-6" for the KC area. He was going to say which he thought was more likely...but I don't know what he decided. 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Nice write up from the KC office tonight. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 558 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 .Discussion... Issued at 227 PM CST WED FEB 3 2021 Key messages: - A cold front will move through the area tomorrow morning, dropping temperatures and bringing a brief period of wintry weather. - Another front will move through Friday night/Saturday morning with arctic air settling into the region by Sunday morning. - Accumulating snow is looking more likely for Saturday afternoon/evening. Detailed discussion... Water vapor imagery shows the next upper-level shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin and northern Rockies this afternoon. This wave will move into the Plains late tonight into early Thursday morning and help push a strong cold front southeastward through the area. A well mixed boundary layer overnight will keep temperatures relatively mild overnight. With the timing of the front moving through in the morning, temperatures are expected to fall throughout the day. Ascent ahead of the front and upper wave should lead to areas of drizzle or light rain. Temperatures then quickly cool off behind the front, at the surface and aloft, and that will lead to period of snow during the later part of the morning into the afternoon. For now, it`s looking like a 2-4 hour block when snow looks most likely behind the front as the whole system quickly tracks east. Models warm the region back up into the lower 40s for Friday as winds shift to the west. This may be a bit overdone, especially if there`s a little snow cover from Thursday`s system. The NAM, being weaker with the Thursday system, is the warmest for Friday and likely an outlier. A secondary cold front moves through Friday night with winds switching to the north and colder air spilling south into the area. The NAM is also weaker with this surge of colder air and that has a pronounced effect with the next system that comes in Saturday afternoon and evening. The NAM never really moves the front through Friday night and then develops a stronger surface low in response the next upper shortwave. This results in Saturday temperatures warming into the 40s ahead of the shortwave. The GFS and the Canadian, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF are all cooler and as a result produce more snow for Saturday afternoon and evening. Our forecast is closer to the colder ECMWF/Canadian/GFS blend and that leads to more snow in our forecast. Feel that with the area likely to be under broad cyclonic flow aloft, a colder solution is preferred. With that said, have increased PoPs to likely for Saturday and increased snow ratios to the 15-18 range. The colder solution and higher snow ratios result in several inches of snow for the area with this system. Arctic air then settles into the region and by Sunday morning, lows could be in the minus single digits in our north and single digits above zero elsewhere. Broad troughing over northern North America will result in nearly zonal flow aloft for the first half of next week. Models show several embedded shortwaves moving through the fast upper flow aloft resulting in several periods of small chances for wintry weather. Also, once we go below freezing Friday evening/night, it doesn`t look like we`ll see above freezing temperatures through at least the middle of next week and likely through next weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z NAM for Saturday's wave - The NAM is getting weaker with each run today, which makes sense considering other models are generally weak. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Makes sense as I can’t really imagine much snow so soon after a major arctic blast. 10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 00z NAM for Saturday's wave - The NAM is getting weaker with each run today, which makes sense considering other models are generally weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Looks like my next legit chance of snow is probably 2 weeks from now. That's what temps in the -20s will do, I guess. Average seasonal snow totals actually go down the further North you go into Saskatchewan, and this is why. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 0z GFS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z GFS Have you seen the ICON? Wow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Some high ratio stuff on the GFS for the Tuesday/Wednesday system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Have you seen the ICON? Wow Yes it really gets your area. Hope it pans out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 0z GFS to hour 123 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 GFS has .2-.3 QPF in Iowa/IL for that system but kuchera is showing 7-8 inches of snow. Temps in the single digits 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 UK Met Sat wave-- 10:1 (not) = Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Sunday - Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z Euro Saturday Sunday 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 SAT wave- (Kuchera) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Sun- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Totals- including todays/Friday ssytem- 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Euro has shifted southeast Monday. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: Totals- including todays/Friday ssytem- That's the epitome of an I-80 special.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 I edited the title of this thread to cover the multiple waves both on Sat & Sun that appears more likely to happen. The storm that I initially thought would transpire for the weekend is delayed a day or two for early next week. I'll prob fire up a thread for the Mon/Tue system on Friday. At the moment, I think we have enough storm threads for now. In the meantime, it looks like these waves will be fun to track along the arctic boundary. I haven't really experienced one of these very high ratios snows since Feb '15 or at the very least back in '13-'14. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 06Z NAM coming in hot............... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 SAT 06Z NAM- 24 hour period- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 06Z 3km NAM-- only half of sat's wave- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z EPS is suggesting a ribbon of .25-.30 of qpf along the I-80 corridor for the weekend waves. That's a pretty solid weekend event given the higher ratios. I'm really getting excited about this entirety of this pattern. What more could you ask for on Super Bowl weekend??? Watching America's #1 sport and tracking snow! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 06Z RDPS- SAT - Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 6z GFS Mean through Sunday. Ensembles really expanding precip coverage, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 06Z Euro through Sunday6pm -- totals through 90 hrs- 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 06z ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 6z Euro coming further south and stronger with the weekend snow. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 06z GFS through 117 hours. Take out a few inches from this total in some places from this morning's storm. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z NAM thru the Sunday morning 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z NAM thru the Sunday morning nam finally starting to fall in line with the GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: nam finally starting to fall in line with the GFS I'm thinking a solid 2-4 for our area on Saturday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 3km NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 @Clinton The formation of the storm forecasted on the NAM looks like a summer time MCS rolling out of Nebraska. Could really get after it on the snowfall rates but be a short duration of snowfall. Glad to see the NAM finally show this solution as up until this 12Z run, it had 40's on Saturday and no snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, MIKEKC said: @Clinton The formation of the storm forecasted on the NAM looks like a summer time MCS rolling out of Nebraska. Could really get after it on the snowfall rates but be a short duration of snowfall. Glad to see the NAM finally show this solution as up until this 12Z run, it had 40's on Saturday and no snow. Your exactly right on it looking like a MCS in the summer. Let's hope we get some of these this summer cause it's going to be warm and dry imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 If you tried to get information from NWS Hastings about any snow in the future, keep looking. They don't seem at all interested in snowfall chances the next few days. It is almost like they are gloating about the maps being wrong about a big blizzard. It is really odd. They also put out a disco this morning that was basically what you would hear on the 6 PM news. I want more detailed information. Just my 2 cents. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 @Clinton I'm not so sure on that dry outlook, I think this pattern is much more active then what Lezak thought it was going to be. After today and Saturday's event, I will be above average on moisture for the entire winter's total with 7 weeks to go. Since Dec. 29th, this pattern has been super wet around our area with storm after storm. It appears we have more storms to come. You might be right, we'll see. BTW, snowing its butt off here in KC right now, already coated the grass. We were at 45 degrees 1.5 hours ago and now it is 31 and snowing heavily. This band won't last long, but it is certainly getting after it. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: If you tried to get information from NWS Hastings about any snow in the future, keep looking. They don't seem at all interested in snowfall chances the next few days. It is almost like they are gloating about the maps being wrong about a big blizzard. It is really odd. They also put out a disco this morning that was basically what you would hear on the 6 PM news. I want more detailed information. Just my 2 cents. They completely whiffed on this small system. We don't have school today because of the blowing and drifting that is going on. I had 1.5" of snow but man it's crazy out there. They said the snow would be wet in nature and therefore no blowing. They nailed the amount for my area but underestimated the snow ratio. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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