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Super Bowl Weekend Multiple Waves


Tom

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Which met?

Pretty sure it was Lezak. On facebook he had a GFS map showing much of northern MO with 8-13" by mon/tue and a Euro map showing less like 3-6" for the KC area. He was going to say which he thought was more likely...but I don't know what he decided.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Nice write up from the KC office tonight.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
558 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 227 PM CST WED FEB 3 2021

Key messages:

- A cold front will move through the area tomorrow morning, dropping
temperatures and bringing a brief period of wintry weather.

- Another front will move through Friday night/Saturday morning with
arctic air settling into the region by Sunday morning.

- Accumulating snow is looking more likely for Saturday
afternoon/evening.

Detailed discussion...

Water vapor imagery shows the next upper-level shortwave trough
moving through the Great Basin and northern Rockies this afternoon.
This wave will move into the Plains late tonight into early Thursday
morning and help push a strong cold front southeastward through the
area. A well mixed boundary layer overnight will keep temperatures
relatively mild overnight. With the timing of the front moving
through in the morning, temperatures are expected to fall throughout
the day. Ascent ahead of the front and upper wave should lead to
areas of drizzle or light rain. Temperatures then quickly cool
off behind the front, at the surface and aloft, and that will lead
to period of snow during the later part of the morning into the
afternoon. For now, it`s looking like a 2-4 hour block when snow
looks most likely behind the front as the whole system quickly
tracks east.

Models warm the region back up into the lower 40s for Friday as
winds shift to the west. This may be a bit overdone, especially if
there`s a little snow cover from Thursday`s system. The NAM, being
weaker with the Thursday system, is the warmest for Friday and
likely an outlier. A secondary cold front moves through Friday night
with winds switching to the north and colder air spilling south into
the area. The NAM is also weaker with this surge of colder air and
that has a pronounced effect with the next system that comes in
Saturday afternoon and evening. The NAM never really moves the front
through Friday night and then develops a stronger surface low in
response the next upper shortwave. This results in Saturday
temperatures warming into the 40s ahead of the shortwave. The GFS
and the Canadian, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF are all cooler
and as a result produce more snow for Saturday afternoon and
evening. Our forecast is closer to the colder ECMWF/Canadian/GFS
blend and that leads to more snow in our forecast. Feel that with
the area likely to be under broad cyclonic flow aloft, a colder
solution is preferred. With that said, have increased PoPs to
likely for Saturday and increased snow ratios to the 15-18 range.
The colder solution and higher snow ratios result in several
inches of snow for the area with this system.

Arctic air then settles into the region and by Sunday morning, lows
could be in the minus single digits in our north and single digits
above zero elsewhere. Broad troughing over northern North America
will result in nearly zonal flow aloft for the first half of next
week. Models show several embedded shortwaves moving through the
fast upper flow aloft resulting in several periods of small chances
for wintry weather. Also, once we go below freezing Friday
evening/night, it doesn`t look like we`ll see above freezing
temperatures through at least the middle of next week and likely
through next weekend.

 

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00z NAM for Saturday's wave - The NAM is getting weaker with each run today, which makes sense considering other models are generally weak.

snku_024h.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like my next legit chance of snow is probably 2 weeks from now. That's what temps in the -20s will do, I guess.

Average seasonal snow totals actually go down the further North you go into Saskatchewan, and this is why.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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  • Tom changed the title to Super Bowl Weekend Multiple Waves

I edited the title of this thread to cover the multiple waves both on Sat & Sun that appears more likely to happen.  The storm that I initially thought would transpire for the weekend is delayed a day or two for early next week.  I'll prob fire up a thread for the Mon/Tue system on Friday.  At the moment, I think we have enough storm threads for now.  In the meantime, it looks like these waves will be fun to track along the arctic boundary.  I haven't really experienced one of these very high ratios snows since Feb '15 or at the very least back in '13-'14.  

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00z EPS is suggesting a ribbon of .25-.30 of qpf along the I-80 corridor for the weekend waves.  That's a pretty solid weekend event given the higher ratios.  I'm really getting excited about this entirety of this pattern.  What more could you ask for on Super Bowl weekend???  Watching America's #1 sport and tracking snow!

 

 

 

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@Clinton

The formation of the storm forecasted on the NAM looks like a summer time MCS rolling out of Nebraska. Could really get after it on the snowfall rates but be a short duration of snowfall. 

Glad to see the NAM finally show this solution as up until this 12Z run, it had 40's on Saturday and no snow.

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Just now, MIKEKC said:

@Clinton

The formation of the storm forecasted on the NAM looks like a summer time MCS rolling out of Nebraska. Could really get after it on the snowfall rates but be a short duration of snowfall. 

Glad to see the NAM finally show this solution as up until this 12Z run, it had 40's on Saturday and no snow.

Your exactly right on it looking like a MCS in the summer.  Let's hope we get some of these this summer cause it's going to be warm and dry imo.

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If you tried to get information from NWS Hastings about any snow in the future, keep looking.  They don't seem at all interested in snowfall chances the next few days.  It is almost like they are gloating about the maps being wrong about a big blizzard.  It is really odd.  They also put out a disco this morning that was basically what you would hear on the 6 PM news.  I want more detailed information.  Just my 2 cents.

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@Clinton

I'm not so sure on that dry outlook, I think this pattern is much more active then what Lezak thought it was going to be. After today and Saturday's event, I will be above average on moisture for the entire winter's total with 7 weeks to go.  

Since Dec. 29th, this pattern has been super wet around our area with storm after storm. It appears we have more storms to come. 

You might be right, we'll see.

BTW, snowing its butt off here in KC right now,  already coated the grass. We were at 45 degrees 1.5 hours ago and now it is 31 and snowing heavily. This band won't last long, but it is certainly getting after it.

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28 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

If you tried to get information from NWS Hastings about any snow in the future, keep looking.  They don't seem at all interested in snowfall chances the next few days.  It is almost like they are gloating about the maps being wrong about a big blizzard.  It is really odd.  They also put out a disco this morning that was basically what you would hear on the 6 PM news.  I want more detailed information.  Just my 2 cents.

They completely whiffed on this small system. We don't have school today because of the blowing and drifting that is going on. I had 1.5" of snow but man it's crazy out there. They said the snow would be wet in nature and therefore no blowing. They nailed the amount for my area but underestimated the snow ratio. 

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