mlgamer Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 24 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: If you tried to get information from NWS Hastings about any snow in the future, keep looking. They don't seem at all interested in snowfall chances the next few days. It is almost like they are gloating about the maps being wrong about a big blizzard. It is really odd. They also put out a disco this morning that was basically what you would hear on the 6 PM news. I want more detailed information. Just my 2 cents. NWS Topeka was also unimpressed in their morning disco. Only a 30% chance Saturday and a 20% chance Sunday night and Monday morning. Dry forecast otherwise. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z GFS 12z ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 The GFS has removed all the snow here this weekend, and has weakened the Monday system to a light event. The v16 doesn't even have anything Monday. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z GFS through 108 hours. Impressive if verifies. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z GFS v16 through 120 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Canadian from Sunday noon to Monday noon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Canadian from Sunday noon to Monday noon come on canadian!! just a little big stronger and further south please 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Modeling has backed off a little from yesterday showing massive amounts of snow but it really isn't that bad. Still a ways out but a decent shot of accumulating snow for the next several days and possibly warning type. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Local met. from our ABC station. Not sure if NWS Hastings hasn't looked at models or what the heck is going on. You talk about downplaying snow. No more than 20% over the next few days in any time frame. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z Ukie next 7 days 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Guidance is all over the place for these events. To be expected with Arctic Front nearby. The Euro seems to be the most consistent, though it has a few changes also. Total Qpf through HR 120. Some in Eastern Sections is from on going system 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z Euro 84hr 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 I don't get it; mostly all models show a really decent chance of upcoming snow and nobody is really talking about it! Hastings didn't say much of anything in this mornings discussion. Will be interesting to see what happens with this afternoons update. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, gabel23 said: I don't get it; mostly all models show a really decent chance of upcoming snow and nobody is really talking about it! Hastings didn't say much of anything in this mornings discussion. Will be interesting to see what happens with this afternoons update. It is bizarre. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: It is bizarre. Here is another one for you.......my grid has a 40% chance of snow on saturday yet 1-3" on the day to day?! Saturday A 40 percent chance of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 18. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z ICON finally fully loaded its maps. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albiahawk Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 With these waves coming through over the next 5-6 days, is there going to be much wind involved. Are these true clippers with wind and reinforcing shots of cold? Our ditches in south central Iowa are full, if there is wind involved with these, the impact to county paved and gravel roads is going to be tough to deal with. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 18z NWS Blend 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 18z RGEM really upped amounts in Nebraska. It is still snowing at 84 hours. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Going to be away from my computer for little bit. I coach 7th grade boys basketball and we have a game today at 4:30 PM. I'll check the models when I get home after 6 PM. Good afternoon of runs so far. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 18z ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 DMX's take- The big challenge for the weekend into early next week as baroclinicity above the cold dome occurs along with the passage of numerous short waves. There likely will be 2 to 3 rounds of light snow with the potential moderate snowfall in some areas. Light snow with a few inches possible is expected over southern Iowa, mainly south of Interstate 80 on Saturday. Breezy winds over 20 mph will cause some blowing snow in these areas. The system on Sunday will have a deep dendritic layer in the cold air which may lead to high snow ratios and bring 1 to 3 inches of snow. The Monday system may have a bigger impact on Iowa with stronger forcing and more moisture available. Breezy northeast winds would also cause blowing snow in rural areas. Wind chill headlines are also expected, Saturday night and again Sunday night with wind chills approaching 30 below over northern Iowa. Possible will need winter weather advisories for the snow at times and mixing and matching with wind chill headlines may be needed. More focus on this active winter weather pattern will occur beginning with tonights forecast as we get past the current weather. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 OAX seems unimpressed but I'm seeing 2-3" likely. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 18z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z GFS I'm sorry but this is unacceptable. Time to move onto the 0z model runs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 NWS Topeka thinking 1-3" event Saturday for the forecast area. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, mlgamer said: NWS Topeka thinking 1-3" event Saturday for the forecast area. Seems on point KC office says dusting to 1 inch in the metro. We shall see but I will guess they will have change that forecast. But baby steps for them, today they figured out it's going to get cold next week. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 316 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 .Discussion... Issued at 316 PM CST THU FEB 4 2021 Key Messages... 1. Light snow is expected on Saturday, Amounts will range from one to two inches across the northern half of Missouri. Snow will begin in the morning and taper off West to East through the afternoon and evening. Expect a dusting to an inch across the KC Metro. 2. A brief burst of snow may sweep across northern Missouri on Sunday, with a dusting to a half inch possible, but better chances will exist early Monday through the day. As of now, upwards of one to two inches is possible Monday across the northern half of Missouri, including the KC Metro. Up to three inches is possible in north central Missouri. 3. Dangerously cold conditions are still expected to develop over the weekend and continue through all of next week. Highs are not expected to climb above freezing for most places across central and northern Missouri, with cold really taking hold on Sunday and persisting through next Friday. Morning lows will dip into the single digits Tuesday morning through the end of the week, with lows in northern missouri below zero. Detailed Discussion... Quite a bit to discuss this afternoon. The narrow swath of moderate to dense snow has weakened, but continues to push into eastern Missouri through 2 PM CDT. Behind this activity, breezy and much colder conditions have settled in, with temperatures holding steady in the lower 30s to upper 20s in northern Missouri. Overnight, the 500mb trough will continue to dig, pivoting northeastward towards the Great Lakes through early Friday. Short range guidance continues to suggest a weak short wave traversing across western Missouri around midnight. Forecast soundings suggest a near saturated dendritic growth zone. Any dendrites that develop will struggle through drier boundary layer conditions, but if development persists and enough support is present, as the HRRR and NAMnest suggest, I cannot rule out some flurries across the KC Metro for a few hours tonight. Morning lows, Friday, will dip into the mid 20s, for areas that saw upwards of 2 inches of snow today in northern MO, temps will dip into the teens. Afternoon highs will climb into the 40s south of the Missouri River with temps dropping off quickly to the north, with locations in northern MO not reaching above freezing. The weekend forecast remains, for lack of a better phrase, a mess. With a large scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay, the Plains and Midwest are left open to subsequent short waves dropping from the northwest. On Saturday, a stout short wave digging southeast will bring ample moisture and support for a quick hit of modest snowfall and rain. Expect light to moderate snowfall to develop into northwest and northeastern Kansas through the Morning. Precipitation will continue to spread eastward with time, with afternoon temps in the mid 30s along the Ozark Plateau resulting in rain and or a rain snow mix across the Lakes region, for a few hours. Expect one to two inches of snow across northern Missouri, with a dusting to an inch along the Missouri River Valley and KC Metro. Sunday, a shallower short wave will bring a quick burst of light snow across northern Missouri. This will proceed a more prominent short wave that will cross the area on Monday. Early projections are for one to two inches along the Missouri River valley to two to three inches in north central Missouri. The big impact this coming week is the cold. It cannot be stressed enough the impact of multiple below freezing temperature days. As discussed in the key messages above, the region is looking at multiple days in a row next week of single digit low temperatures, along with negative single digits across northern Missouri. Over the next seven days, there`s no break in bitter cold temperatures on the horizon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 The long range RAP 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 NWS Hastings disco, not sure what models they look at. 1-2” this weekend and squeezing out some other flurries. I shake my head. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 39 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: NWS Hastings disco, not sure what models they look at. 1-2” this weekend and squeezing out some other flurries. I shake my head. They are looking at the Euro. It's an outlier on amounts and even it's track but it's still the Euro, I think you'll do much better than 1-2. 18z Euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z HRRR 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z NWS blend 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Updated OAX graphic 2 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks more solid for the Sunday wave as well, just a little weaker. Two 2-4" events just 24 hours apart could be relatively signficant, especially as we're going in a cold wave. 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 From KLKN: If my forecast verifies this will be the coldest February 7-14 since 1936. The average temperature will run 26.5° below normal, and this would rank as the 3rd coldest February 7-14 since 1887. Coldest Average Temperature: -3.6° 1899 -1.5° 1936 0.5° 2021 0.6° 1905 edit: Oops meant to put this in the cold snap thread 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z RGEM 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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