Niko Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Very detailed explanation from NOAA in regards to the weekend snow....... Models show a primary lobe of planetary vorticity swinging into the western Great Lakes Saturday evening. Absolute vorticity charts do qualitatively show a very good setup with shortwave energy digging right into Lower Michigan. The most uncertain aspect of the Saturday evening forecast centers on the integrity of a low to midlevel thetae axis as its forecasted to be directed right into southeast Michigan. If this feature is in fact coherent, moisture and saturation will be very good for system relative isentropic ascent to act upon to generate snow. One can go hunting and find some solutions that are quite bullish on QPF with perhaps a 0.25 inch or more. In contrast, the ECMWF (including the d(prog)/dt of ECMWF), virtual all of the 5.00Z EPS, and the RGEM are extremely lean on QPF amounts. There are both good things and bad things about the setup. The good...1. Potential for an outstanding frontal surface at 7.5 kft agl (750mb) with very low static stability above it. 2. Very good microphysics potential with crosshairs through the DGZ and cold near surface profile. Liquid to snow ratios could be north of 15:1. The not-so good...1. Less than spectacular, broad and diffuse upper level jet dynamics. 2. An attendant shortwave that passes through Arkansas/Tennessee. What this does to the aforementioned thetae ribbon of interest is uncertain. 3. System relative flow trajectories do remain veered. Bottom line is the potential exists for an accumulating snow event Saturday evening. A lot of uncertainty from the authors perspective on how this will go. If the moisture verifies could see a quick hitting overachiever, if the moisture does not make it here then could see lackluster snow. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z GFS thru hr 36. Very strange to see totals increase for the KC area this close to the event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z GFS through 90 hours. Crazy totals. Goodness. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 My afternoon AFD Key messages: - Light snow is expected to overspread the region from NW to SE tomorrow morning and persist through the late afternoon or evening hours. - Several weaker systems will bring additional rounds of light snow to the area Sunday and Monday. - A long duration and dangerously cold stretch of weather will commence Saturday. Temperatures may not climb back above freezing until the middle of not next week, but the following week. Detailed discussion... Water vapor imagery shows multiple embedded shortwaves within the upper flow. One, located over Idaho/Wyoming/Utah will continue to dive southeast and pass mostly to our south. Another wave appears to be moving along the Canadian Rockies, diving southeast as well. The bulk of this wave may pass to our north but the combined vorticity advection and strong ascent between the two waves will help develop an area of snow over central to western Nebraska that tracks to the southeast through our area. This will bring a quick but somewhat intense period of snowfall to the region. Snow is expected to spread into NW Missouri around sunrise and then spread across the rest of the forecast area through the morning hours. The main change with this forecast package was to increase snow-to-liquid water ratios. Increasing SLR into the upper teens across northern Missouri brought snow totals into the 3-5 inch range there with generally 1 to 3 inch amounts elsewhere. It`s possible ratios could be higher, in the 20 to 25 range, as forecast soundings show the dendritic growth region from the surface to about 15000 ft AGL. This would increase snow amounts, especially for northern Missouri. Regardless, given forecasted snowfall amounts, have issued winter weather advisory for the entire forecast area with the northwestern portion segmented to mention the 3-5" amounts. Snow will quickly end from west to east as the upper shortwave moves by and the associated ascent wanes. Several other embedded shortwaves will quickly move through the upper flow. The first wave moves through Sunday, bringing light snow to mainly the northern tier or two of counties in the forecast area. Amounts look less than an inch but with high snow-to-liquid water ratios, wouldn`t be surprised if some area sees more. A similar scenario plays out Monday though it looks to affect the entire forecast area. Snow amounts again look to be less than an inch but with high ratios, there could be some higher amounts. The bigger and likely more dangerous aspect with this forecast is the start of a prolonged and dangerously cold run of temperatures. The coldest stretch of time looks like next work week where highs are expected to only be in the teens across the area. The coldest part of that stretch looks like Thursday into Friday with highs in the low teens for the KC area and single digits above zero across northern Missouri. Low temperatures next Friday morning look below zero for the entire forecast area with minus teens possible in northern MO. Looking at long range temperature anomaly plots, it may not be until the middle of the week after next week that we warm back up above freezing. It`s likely that wind chill advisories or warnings will be needed at some point or multiple points next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 18z GFS through 90 hours. Crazy totals. Goodness. You are golden my friend...enjoy the snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z GFS thru Tues. 2 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Tony said: You are golden my friend...enjoy the snow! Thanks for the kind words. I’d take half of these totals and be happy with the cold that is coming. Any more is icing on the cake. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 The difference on Kuchera between Pivotal and WxBell is very substantial. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z GFS thru Tues. i need this to drop another 100 miles south pleaseeee 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Clinton said: 18z GFS thru Tues. That is a bullseye over Central Nebraska. Someone gets buried. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: The difference on Kuchera between Pivotal and WxBell is very substantial. I thought the same thing. Is there a different ratio used? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: The difference on Kuchera between Pivotal and WxBell is very substantial. I like pivotal better but just wanted to show the whole area. WxBell is really cranking it up most likely to much. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 21z RAP through 28 hours. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 21Z RAP through 51 hours- it's amazing how these long range CAM's dry up as you get closer to the event. Almost always. Oh well, it's better than nothing. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: WWA issued here. Might as well just keep it going all week. Congrats ...hope you get some appreciable snows. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, Niko said: Congrats ...hope you get some appreciable snows. Thanks. Looks like you will do quite well also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: Thanks. Looks like you will do quite well also. Appreciate it amigo. Yes, finally Winter has arrived! It looks so wonderful outside now. For i.e., I was looking out my window previously, right b4 sunset and I gotta tell ya, those mean looking clouds, along w a full snowcover, biting wind howling, frigid temps and also hearing those late evening snowblowers in full force in the far distance reaaaaalllllly makes up for some of the loss we had thus far this Winter season. Ma Nature is getting ready pound a lot of us and this is just the beginning. The extended looks marvelous. Enjoy ur evening bud....."Happy Tracking" 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Accuweather has been calling for 3-6” from tonight through tomorrow morning since Tuesday. They might turn out to be spot on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 KC office has updated it's snowfall forecast, I like how the put a little finger on that 3-4 to include me 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 06Z Euro First wave through HR 30- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Grizzcoat said: 06Z Euro First wave through HR 30- Do you mean 18z? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: 06Z Euro First wave through HR 30- This sure shows this heavy band has shifted south even more. Has me at a solid 5-6”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 90 HRs of 18Z EUro- 5 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yeah my bad. 18Z Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Yeah my bad. 18Z No problem. I zoomed in and saw it. Thanks for sharing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 NDFD 10:1 Looks like the model my office is using for their forecast. Maybe I can beat the 10:1 ratio. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: NDFD 10:1 Looks like the model my office is using for their forecast. Maybe I can beat the 10:1 ratio. I would say much higher than 10:1. Add several inches to these totals imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, Clinton said: NDFD 10:1 Looks like the model my office is using for their forecast. Maybe I can beat the 10:1 ratio. This looks like a reverse Nike swoosh. Mother Nature got jokes. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: 21z RAP through 28 hours. Rap actually preforming better here. I like that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 SEMI looking good w this one....6"+ 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 NAM and 3km NAM wave one through hr 30 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 NAMs trending a little N tonight and better for C.IA. More QPF for all of Southern.C.IA -- Totals for ROund 1 and 2- 12km NAM 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z NAM to 66 hours 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z HRW NMMB 48 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z HRW WRF ARW 48 hours 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z RGEM full 84 hours. Holy cow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 High ratio snows are the best 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z GFS through 75 hours. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 0z GFS through 75 hours. Ok but 19" in Broken bow from a couple clippers Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 OAX forecasting 3-5" tonight and another 2-3" tomorrow night on top of 5" OTG. I want to try to wake up early tomorrow because last year I would've killed for a 3-5" event in Feb lol but we'll see. 7 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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