Clinton Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 NFD holding steady Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 First flakes starting to fall at 10:20 pm. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 RAP showing signs of moving N big time (especially 2nd wave)-- and very high qpf in IA. 7 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: RAP showing signs of moving N big time (especially 2nd wave)-- and very high qpf in IA. Nice little sliver of 12+ crossing right through my area! Just continue to spread the wealth models; it's always crazy how sharp the cut offs usually are with clippers. I'm usually on the southern end of these types of systems. I can't remember the last time Nebraska was in the center of clipper central. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Really coming down. 1/2 visibility and the streets are already covered. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Going off now cast either the band of heavy snow will be wider or further up to the north and east. North Platte expanded the warning up in that direction! Bodes well for us down stream I would think! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED National Weather Service North Platte NE 1044 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY... NEZ024-025-036-037-061500- /O.UPG.KLBF.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210206T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KLBF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210206T1500Z/ Hooker-Thomas-McPherson-Logan- Including the cities of Mullen, Thedford, Halsey, Tryon, Ringgold, and Stapleton 1044 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 /944 PM MST Fri Feb 5 2021/ ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Hooker, Thomas, McPherson and Logan Counties. * WHEN...Until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chill values of zero to 10 below zero are expected Saturday morning. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, gabel23 said: Going off now cast either the band of heavy snow will be wider or further up to the north and east. North Platte expanded the warning up in that direction! Bodes well for us down stream I would think! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED National Weather Service North Platte NE 1044 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY... NEZ024-025-036-037-061500- /O.UPG.KLBF.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210206T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KLBF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210206T1500Z/ Hooker-Thomas-McPherson-Logan- Including the cities of Mullen, Thedford, Halsey, Tryon, Ringgold, and Stapleton 1044 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 /944 PM MST Fri Feb 5 2021/ ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Hooker, Thomas, McPherson and Logan Counties. * WHEN...Until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chill values of zero to 10 below zero are expected Saturday morning. Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service North Platte NE 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 Radar and the short term models suggest a band of heavy snow is, and will set up across parts of the central Sandhills overnight. A few counties have been added to the Winter Storm Warning in effect across Custer county. The model blended forecast suggests 4 to 7 inches within the Winter Storm warning area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: First flakes starting to fall at 10:20 pm. Have fun out there! Radar looks like its lining up for you and the models certainly are in general agreement that your area could very well be the jackzone. I've seen these type of set ups deliver quite a bit of snow with such cold temps. The fluff factor will def aid in snow accumulations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z Euro through 72 hours. Probably more realistic for amounts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 05z RAP. The band is back south again. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Folks - I'am weenie as most on here . But several things- Kuchera on Pivotal is much more accurate than on WXbell/ #2- when you go out past 12-15 hrs on either HRRR or RAP- your likely running the table to get accurate amounts if close. Coverage is better- esp the RAP. The NWS has this down and is reflected in their forecasts. We should give them some wiggle room as they usually do A D**n good job. They also forecast such things not seen on Kuchera ie.--- dendrite size and hence in these extreme ratios sometimes the QPF must be thrown out. This is not lake effect in the plains but extreme dry air being wringed out to the max. Expect much lower totals than 90% of guidance says. Esp in clipper - dry air - situations. My point is- expect dry air and or dendrite physical size to make a big difference in actual accumulations compared to actual qpf, which almost always seems to be overdone on all forms guidance. The NWS is usually pretty D**n good this close , so those upper end totals are exactly that-- probably top 10% of happening. ESPECIALLY true in a clipper again. Most people outside Centrak NEB will see 2-4" through 96 hours. Just my .02 and remember the met's forecasting this stuff are highly trained. I know several. Give them the respect even though we see such and such model's showing this. They are highly skilled in what they do and why we are here. In the end- they usually (not always) win out agst these higher totals we see on operational runs. 6 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 ORD SREF mean up to 3.5" through Sunday...not bad at 10:1... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Isn't this what makes part of the fun of being part of this forum? Always that possibility of epic snow storms, awesome sledding or building a fort in 40" of snow. Good times because we all probably like analyzing data in here whether we know little or a lot. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Great disco by Hastings. As I thought last night, the initial band was farther south than they thought. It sat from North Platte to Lexington to Holdrege. Met said they probably should have had a couple more counties in WSW. Thinks the northeastern counties won’t be as high as initially forecasted for wave 1. They think some in this band will be over 6” when it ends later this morning. I haven’t measured yet, so I report back later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Got to give the ICON some love. It had always had the heaviest band farther southwest than many of the models for days. GFS was also good as was Canadian. ICON has wave 2 tonight farther southwest than Hastings is predicting. Got to give credit where credit is due. ICON is typically questioned by many, including myself. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Snow continues, heavy at times. Photo as of 6:22 am from Viaero cam in Holdrege 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Interstate 80, Holdrege exit. Low visibility as of 6:30 am. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Snow continues, heavy at times. Photo as of 6:22 am from Viaero cam in Holdrege Looks amazing! Congrats looks like a fun week ahead. Radar is looking good as it heads my way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: Looks amazing! Congrats looks like a fun week ahead. Radar is looking good as it heads my way. We are quickly approaching 6” if not there already as heavy snow continues. Too cold and windy to go out yet. Just ball parking a guess. High ratio means any forecast in the coming days can over achieve. Hopefully this holds together and moves southeast towards KC area. Next wave looks to be hot its heels this evening. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 NDFD for the next 3 days at 10:1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: NDFD for the next 3 days at 10:1 I would say that looks about right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 As I’ve studied all the models for days, the one that performed the worst for Wave 1 was the NAM imo. Let’s see which one hits Wave 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 I will post this here and maybe in the February discussion as well. Yesterdays official snow fall total at GR of 7.9” broke the days snow fall record. It should be noted that historically by February in most years the lake effect is shut down by there being too much ice on the great lakes but this year that is not the case. Here at my house, I now have a total of 12 inches of snow on the ground. At the current time there is light snow falling and the temperature is 14. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Nice refresher snow currently in Omaha, maybe about an inch of fluffy snow in my backyard so far this morning and it’s coming down at fairly heavy rate. Radar looks good for a couple more hours of moderate to heavy snow. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 I just measured 6.3”” and it’s still snowing. There is quite a bit of blowing so might be off a little. Have heard reports of 6-7” from North Platte and East of there to the southeast towards Central Nebraska. I might get to 7” if we can get snow to keep reforming. NWS Hastings had me in 2-4”. Always thought that was too low. They admitted in their disco that the band was farther south than they had thought. Will see if I can over achieve tonight into Sunday. 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 12z HRW NMMB from hour 24 to hour 48 of the model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looks like ICON is south of the NAM again for Wave 2 just like it was for Wave 1. Interesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Radar shows a heavy band over Lincoln at the moment. It appears 1" is about the best I can expect from today's wave. I may not get anything from Sunday's wave. I'm hoping Monday's wave can lift far enough north to drop a couple inches. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 12z ICON through 75 hours. Waves 2 and 3. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Had to take my wife to the pharmacy. The F-150 is in 4 wheel drive. Streets are a mess. Low visibility with snow and blowing snow continuing. Piles are getting high in many places from previous storms and now this storm. Our school said they may have to contract to have people come in and haul the snow away as there is no place else to pile it around our school campus. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 12z RGEM. Take out a couple of inches from this total in the south and east as that is included from the end of Wave 1. Everything else is Waves 2 and 3. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Snowing pretty good here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 The weekend wave train is derailing for Cedar Rapids. This morning's ICON pushed the Monday wave south and now the GFS is going mostly south as well. I may do well to get 2" out of the entire wave train. I suppose that shouldn't be a surprise considering arctic air is dropping into the area. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Okay well OAX was off. Pretty sure we are at 3 and probably pushing 4. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 15z RAP model looks to take the same path with Wave 2 that Wave 1 did. I’ll monitor this today for adjustments. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 The radar here in Lawrence says it been snowing for about 2 hours but no flakes are hitting the ground. Looks like i can take off a inch from accumulations since it’s still dry out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: The radar here in Lawrence says it been snowing for about 2 hours but no flakes are hitting the ground. Looks like i can take off a inch from accumulations since it’s still dry out That is not a great sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 Haven’t measured because I’m lazy but the snow is over my knees. Excited for the 2-4” snow boost tonight. Light lake effect snow continues to fall off and on. Been snowing nonstop now for 42 hours. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 6, 2021 Report Share Posted February 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: That is not a great sign. Starting to see some flurries now 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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