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Super Bowl Weekend Multiple Waves


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Probably 1.5 to 2" of squeaky cotton. 6F and the sounds and sights are surely a winter lovers delight!!!

One of our church lot piles. These are everywhere around town. Some even higher. Oh, it is snowing again. 

I just measured 6.3”” and it’s still snowing. There is quite a bit of blowing so might be off a little. Have heard reports of 6-7” from North Platte and East of there to the southeast towards Central

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You roll with ICON--- you usually die with the iCON - it's an inferior model. Go with others.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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9 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

You roll with ICON--- you usually die with the iCON - it's an inferior model. Go with others.

Yeah.  But they're all inferior.  The NAM has teased me all winter.  Someone told me not to trust it a couple of weeks ago.   I'll admit that putting the GFS and Icon up against the Euro and Canadian doesn't give me confidence.  But at this range, I'd say its about even money.  Won't surprise me if Iowa continues hoarding the snow, but I wouldn't base that on any of the models at this point.   

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That escalated quickly.  Two runs ago the GFS had nothing at all in the region Monday.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_20.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFSv16 is a bit stronger with the Sunday wave than the GFS, but then much flatter and weaker Monday.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS has added another storm Tuesday LOL😂

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS has added another storm Tuesday LOL😂

snku_acc.us_c.png

Probably shouldn't even post this on actual storm thread lmao 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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If this storm happens, it will be fantastic w all of that "Arctic Air" around. I like powdery snows and high drifts, along w low wcf's, windy conditions and blowing snow. Hopefully, this is the case w this one.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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What in the actual **** is this GFS run lol.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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This is fun to fantasize about, but reality will probably be no more than 30% of that.  The v16 has a very weak Monday wave and nothing at all Tuesday.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Which met?

Pretty sure it was Lezak. On facebook he had a GFS map showing much of northern MO with 8-13" by mon/tue and a Euro map showing less like 3-6" for the KC area. He was going to say which he thought was more likely...but I don't know what he decided.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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Nice write up from the KC office tonight.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
558 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 227 PM CST WED FEB 3 2021

Key messages:

- A cold front will move through the area tomorrow morning, dropping
temperatures and bringing a brief period of wintry weather.

- Another front will move through Friday night/Saturday morning with
arctic air settling into the region by Sunday morning.

- Accumulating snow is looking more likely for Saturday
afternoon/evening.

Detailed discussion...

Water vapor imagery shows the next upper-level shortwave trough
moving through the Great Basin and northern Rockies this afternoon.
This wave will move into the Plains late tonight into early Thursday
morning and help push a strong cold front southeastward through the
area. A well mixed boundary layer overnight will keep temperatures
relatively mild overnight. With the timing of the front moving
through in the morning, temperatures are expected to fall throughout
the day. Ascent ahead of the front and upper wave should lead to
areas of drizzle or light rain. Temperatures then quickly cool
off behind the front, at the surface and aloft, and that will lead
to period of snow during the later part of the morning into the
afternoon. For now, it`s looking like a 2-4 hour block when snow
looks most likely behind the front as the whole system quickly
tracks east.

Models warm the region back up into the lower 40s for Friday as
winds shift to the west. This may be a bit overdone, especially if
there`s a little snow cover from Thursday`s system. The NAM, being
weaker with the Thursday system, is the warmest for Friday and
likely an outlier. A secondary cold front moves through Friday night
with winds switching to the north and colder air spilling south into
the area. The NAM is also weaker with this surge of colder air and
that has a pronounced effect with the next system that comes in
Saturday afternoon and evening. The NAM never really moves the front
through Friday night and then develops a stronger surface low in
response the next upper shortwave. This results in Saturday
temperatures warming into the 40s ahead of the shortwave. The GFS
and the Canadian, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF are all cooler
and as a result produce more snow for Saturday afternoon and
evening. Our forecast is closer to the colder ECMWF/Canadian/GFS
blend and that leads to more snow in our forecast. Feel that with
the area likely to be under broad cyclonic flow aloft, a colder
solution is preferred. With that said, have increased PoPs to
likely for Saturday and increased snow ratios to the 15-18 range.
The colder solution and higher snow ratios result in several
inches of snow for the area with this system.

Arctic air then settles into the region and by Sunday morning, lows
could be in the minus single digits in our north and single digits
above zero elsewhere. Broad troughing over northern North America
will result in nearly zonal flow aloft for the first half of next
week. Models show several embedded shortwaves moving through the
fast upper flow aloft resulting in several periods of small chances
for wintry weather. Also, once we go below freezing Friday
evening/night, it doesn`t look like we`ll see above freezing
temperatures through at least the middle of next week and likely
through next weekend.

 

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00z NAM for Saturday's wave - The NAM is getting weaker with each run today, which makes sense considering other models are generally weak.

snku_024h.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Makes sense as I can’t really imagine much snow so soon after a major arctic blast.

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

00z NAM for Saturday's wave - The NAM is getting weaker with each run today, which makes sense considering other models are generally weak.

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Looks like my next legit chance of snow is probably 2 weeks from now. That's what temps in the -20s will do, I guess.

Average seasonal snow totals actually go down the further North you go into Saskatchewan, and this is why.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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00z Euro

Saturday

qpf_024h.us_mw.png

Sunday

qpf_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro has shifted southeast Monday.

qpf_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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  • Tom changed the title to Super Bowl Weekend Multiple Waves

I edited the title of this thread to cover the multiple waves both on Sat & Sun that appears more likely to happen.  The storm that I initially thought would transpire for the weekend is delayed a day or two for early next week.  I'll prob fire up a thread for the Mon/Tue system on Friday.  At the moment, I think we have enough storm threads for now.  In the meantime, it looks like these waves will be fun to track along the arctic boundary.  I haven't really experienced one of these very high ratios snows since Feb '15 or at the very least back in '13-'14.  

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00z EPS is suggesting a ribbon of .25-.30 of qpf along the I-80 corridor for the weekend waves.  That's a pretty solid weekend event given the higher ratios.  I'm really getting excited about this entirety of this pattern.  What more could you ask for on Super Bowl weekend???  Watching America's #1 sport and tracking snow!

 

 

 

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