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Super Bowl Weekend Multiple Waves


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Probably 1.5 to 2" of squeaky cotton. 6F and the sounds and sights are surely a winter lovers delight!!!

One of our church lot piles. These are everywhere around town. Some even higher. Oh, it is snowing again. 

I just measured 6.3”” and it’s still snowing. There is quite a bit of blowing so might be off a little. Have heard reports of 6-7” from North Platte and East of there to the southeast towards Central

Posted Images

06Z Euro through  Sunday6pm -- totals through 90 hrs-

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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@Clinton

The formation of the storm forecasted on the NAM looks like a summer time MCS rolling out of Nebraska. Could really get after it on the snowfall rates but be a short duration of snowfall. 

Glad to see the NAM finally show this solution as up until this 12Z run, it had 40's on Saturday and no snow.

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Just now, MIKEKC said:

@Clinton

The formation of the storm forecasted on the NAM looks like a summer time MCS rolling out of Nebraska. Could really get after it on the snowfall rates but be a short duration of snowfall. 

Glad to see the NAM finally show this solution as up until this 12Z run, it had 40's on Saturday and no snow.

Your exactly right on it looking like a MCS in the summer.  Let's hope we get some of these this summer cause it's going to be warm and dry imo.

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If you tried to get information from NWS Hastings about any snow in the future, keep looking.  They don't seem at all interested in snowfall chances the next few days.  It is almost like they are gloating about the maps being wrong about a big blizzard.  It is really odd.  They also put out a disco this morning that was basically what you would hear on the 6 PM news.  I want more detailed information.  Just my 2 cents.

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@Clinton

I'm not so sure on that dry outlook, I think this pattern is much more active then what Lezak thought it was going to be. After today and Saturday's event, I will be above average on moisture for the entire winter's total with 7 weeks to go.  

Since Dec. 29th, this pattern has been super wet around our area with storm after storm. It appears we have more storms to come. 

You might be right, we'll see.

BTW, snowing its butt off here in KC right now,  already coated the grass. We were at 45 degrees 1.5 hours ago and now it is 31 and snowing heavily. This band won't last long, but it is certainly getting after it.

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28 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

If you tried to get information from NWS Hastings about any snow in the future, keep looking.  They don't seem at all interested in snowfall chances the next few days.  It is almost like they are gloating about the maps being wrong about a big blizzard.  It is really odd.  They also put out a disco this morning that was basically what you would hear on the 6 PM news.  I want more detailed information.  Just my 2 cents.

They completely whiffed on this small system. We don't have school today because of the blowing and drifting that is going on. I had 1.5" of snow but man it's crazy out there. They said the snow would be wet in nature and therefore no blowing. They nailed the amount for my area but underestimated the snow ratio. 

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24 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

If you tried to get information from NWS Hastings about any snow in the future, keep looking.  They don't seem at all interested in snowfall chances the next few days.  It is almost like they are gloating about the maps being wrong about a big blizzard.  It is really odd.  They also put out a disco this morning that was basically what you would hear on the 6 PM news.  I want more detailed information.  Just my 2 cents.

NWS Topeka was also unimpressed in their morning disco. Only a 30% chance Saturday and a 20% chance Sunday night and Monday morning. Dry forecast otherwise.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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The GFS has removed all the snow here this weekend, and has weakened the Monday system to a light event.  The v16 doesn't even have anything Monday.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Modeling has backed off a little from yesterday showing massive amounts of snow but it really isn't that bad. Still a ways out but a decent shot of accumulating snow for the next several days and possibly warning type.

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Guidance is all over the place for these events. To be expected with Arctic Front nearby. The Euro seems to be the most consistent, though it has a few changes also.  Total Qpf through HR 120. Some in Eastern Sections is from on going system image.thumb.png.917dcf8284e6fffac207dea35c6dd7ed.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I don't get it; mostly all models show a really decent chance of upcoming snow and nobody is really talking about it! Hastings didn't say much of anything in this mornings discussion. Will be interesting to see what happens with this afternoons update. 

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6 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I don't get it; mostly all models show a really decent chance of upcoming snow and nobody is really talking about it! Hastings didn't say much of anything in this mornings discussion. Will be interesting to see what happens with this afternoons update. 

It is bizarre. 

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11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is bizarre. 

Here is another one for you.......my grid has a 40% chance of snow on saturday yet 1-3" on the day to day?! 

 

Saturday
A 40 percent chance of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 18. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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With these waves coming through over the next 5-6 days, is there going to be much wind involved. Are these true clippers with wind and reinforcing shots of cold? Our ditches in south central Iowa are full, if there is wind involved with these, the impact to county paved and gravel roads is going to be tough to deal with.

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DMX's take-

The big challenge for the weekend into early next week as
baroclinicity above the cold dome occurs along with the passage
of numerous short waves. There likely will be 2 to 3 rounds of
light snow with the potential moderate snowfall in some areas.
Light snow with a few inches possible is expected over southern
Iowa, mainly south of Interstate 80 on Saturday. Breezy winds over
20 mph will cause some blowing snow in these areas. The system on
Sunday will have a deep dendritic layer in the cold air which may
lead to high snow ratios and bring 1 to 3 inches of snow. The
Monday system may have a bigger impact on Iowa with stronger
forcing and more moisture available. Breezy northeast winds would
also cause blowing snow in rural areas. Wind chill headlines are
also expected, Saturday night and again Sunday night with wind
chills approaching 30 below over northern Iowa. Possible will need
winter weather advisories for the snow at times and mixing and
matching with wind chill headlines may be needed. More focus on
this active winter weather pattern will occur beginning with
tonights forecast as we get past the current weather.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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NWS Topeka thinking 1-3" event Saturday for the forecast area.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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4 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

NWS Topeka thinking 1-3" event Saturday for the forecast area.

Seems on point KC office says dusting to 1 inch in the metro.  We shall see but I will guess they will have change that forecast.  But baby steps for them, today they figured out it's going to get cold next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
316 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU FEB 4 2021

Key Messages...

1. Light snow is expected on Saturday, Amounts will range from one
to two inches across the northern half of Missouri. Snow will begin
in the morning and taper off West to East through the afternoon and
evening. Expect a dusting to an inch across the KC Metro.

2. A brief burst of snow may sweep across northern Missouri on
Sunday, with a dusting to a half inch possible, but better chances
will exist early Monday through the day. As of now, upwards of one
to two inches is possible Monday across the northern half of
Missouri, including the KC Metro. Up to three inches is possible in
north central Missouri.

3. Dangerously cold conditions are still expected to develop over
the weekend and continue through all of next week. Highs are not
expected to climb above freezing for most places across central and
northern Missouri, with cold really taking hold on Sunday and
persisting through next Friday. Morning lows will dip into the
single digits Tuesday morning through the end of the week, with lows
in northern missouri below zero.

Detailed Discussion...

Quite a bit to discuss this afternoon. The narrow swath of moderate
to dense snow has weakened, but continues to push into eastern
Missouri through 2 PM CDT. Behind this activity, breezy and much
colder conditions have settled in, with temperatures holding steady
in the lower 30s to upper 20s in northern Missouri. Overnight, the
500mb trough will continue to dig, pivoting northeastward towards
the Great Lakes through early Friday. Short range guidance continues
to suggest a weak short wave traversing across western Missouri
around midnight. Forecast soundings suggest a near saturated
dendritic growth zone. Any dendrites that develop will struggle
through drier boundary layer conditions, but if development persists
and enough support is present, as the HRRR and NAMnest suggest, I
cannot rule out some flurries across the KC Metro for a few hours
tonight. Morning lows, Friday, will dip into the mid 20s, for areas
that saw upwards of 2 inches of snow today in northern MO, temps
will dip into the teens. Afternoon highs will climb into the 40s
south of the Missouri River with temps dropping off quickly to the
north, with locations in northern MO not reaching above freezing.

The weekend forecast remains, for lack of a better phrase, a mess.
With a large scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay, the Plains
and Midwest are left open to subsequent short waves dropping from
the northwest. On Saturday, a stout short wave digging southeast
will bring ample moisture and support for a quick hit of modest
snowfall and rain. Expect light to moderate snowfall to develop into
northwest and northeastern Kansas through the Morning. Precipitation
will continue to spread eastward with time, with afternoon temps
in the mid 30s along the Ozark Plateau resulting in rain and or a
rain snow mix across the Lakes region, for a few hours. Expect one
to two inches of snow across northern Missouri, with a dusting to
an inch along the Missouri River Valley and KC Metro.

Sunday, a shallower short wave will bring a quick burst of light
snow across northern Missouri. This will proceed a more prominent
short wave that will cross the area on Monday. Early projections
are for one to two inches along the Missouri River valley to two
to three inches in north central Missouri.

The big impact this coming week is the cold. It cannot be stressed
enough the impact of multiple below freezing temperature days. As
discussed in the key messages above, the region is looking at
multiple days in a row next week of single digit low temperatures,
along with negative single digits across northern Missouri. Over the
next seven days, there`s no break in bitter cold temperatures on the
horizon.
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39 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings disco, not sure what models they look at. 1-2” this weekend and squeezing out some other flurries. I shake my head. 

They are looking at the Euro.  It's an outlier on amounts and even it's track but it's still the Euro, I think you'll do much better than 1-2.

18z Euro

1612666800-vYGJR5OQaMU.png

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