Super Bowl Weekend Multiple Waves

[clintbeed1993]

NWS is downplaying this thing BIG TIME..which is really dumb. With snow ratios as high as they will be..not a good time to downplay totals. They seem to go against all logic. Even Jim Flowers doesn't seem interested.  Thinking we'll see a big change in tone by tomorrow afternoon. Amounts will start creeping up if the models keep looking this juiced.

[snowstorm83]

6.85" SREF mean for Lincoln through Saturday. QPF mean is only 0.26" though so that would be very high ratios, around 1:35. I feel like that's a little ridiculous. 

[snowstorm83]

GFS still south 

[CentralNebWeather]

0z GFS through 105 hours. Yes please. 

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Canadian through 96 hours. 

[Clinton]

RAP

 

[centralweather44]

Wondering what the local mets are seeing and thinking. Caught weather tonight and most calling for 1-2” per wave. Don’t seem all that impressed. Hoping we can cash in on some of these with at least 2”+ from each 

[clintbeed1993]

4 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

Wondering what the local mets are seeing and thinking. Caught weather tonight and most calling for 1-2” per wave. Don’t seem all that impressed. Hoping we can cash in on some of these with at least 2”+ from each 

Heavier band seems to be wanting to set up further West if you're in Lincoln. Still, even Hastings is being SUPER conservative with this. I expect them to bump up totals by tomorrow

[Tom]

00z Euro through Super Bowl weekend...

 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

RAP

 

The RAP really digs this system and tries to take it neg tilt while the global models are more positively tilted and flatter.  Hoping the RAP is sniffing out this wave being more amped like the globals were showing a few days ago.

 

 

[Tom]

The LR HRRR is also amping up the Sat wave and is showing some encouraging signs to lay down a rather sig swath of snow...

 

[Tom]

Hmmm, the 06z NAM is also showing this potent wave on Saturday....its showing 20:1 to 22:1 snow ratios...

 

06z NAM 3km...

 

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS through 96 hrs

[Grizzcoat]

09Z RAP-

[Grizzcoat]

RDPS-

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings has finally arrived at the party, 2 days behind most of us. There disco this morning was amazing. Too long to post, so go there if interested. Summary, brutal stretch of cold. They aren’t exactly sure where the heaviest bands will set up, so amounts will likely change and probably will be increased. Says they are looking at all models. GFS and NAM are far apart which will make huge differences in amounts at certain locations. Also, high snow ratios will probably lead to higher amounts. Basically it could snow at any time in the next week. 
 

I’ve had my issues with them lately, but this is what I want in a disco. Gives all scenarios, science behind decisions, and potential problems with the forecast. 

[CentralNebWeather]

06z RGEM  This heavy snow area is what Hastings says could shift over the next few days and have drastic differences in amounts.  Some models move it East, and some have it further Southwest  

[Grizzcoat]

06Z Euro totals Kuchera 90 hrs   (tick N in IA)

[Clinton]

Forecast from KC office. Seems reasonable

[Hawkeye]

There is quite a difference for my area, Saturday, between the globals and CAMs.

[Grizzcoat]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Forecast from KC office. Seems reasonable

^^ KC's graphic doesn't line up well with OMA and DMX's graphics.  Someone's going to be wrong.

[westMJim]

I did several snow fall measurements around the yard and averaged 4" of new snow and now have 6" on the ground. The snow has kind of a crunchy fell to it so there is some moisture in it.  At the current time light snow is falling with a temperature of 20. All in all not as bad as I thought it would be this morning.

[CentralNebWeather]

47 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^ KC's graphic doesn't line up well with OMA and DMX's graphics.  Someone's going to be wrong.

I will be tracking the NWS closely.  I saw they really missed with amounts on the low end in Iowa yesterday.  I think they are way to conservative in my area of Nebraska.  We'll see who is right.

[Grizzcoat]

HRRR through HR 40 (so not to overlap with wave 2 coming into E.NE)--

[Clinton]

12z NAM with good coverage this run.

[CentralNebWeather]

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z NAM with good coverage this run.

The band has moved southwest more from the last 2 runs.  It is the one model that is bad for me.  I hope it doesn't verify, but can't throw it out.  The Canadian, RGEM, GFS, ICON and the HRW models have been much better.

[Clinton]

12z NAMS

[CentralNebWeather]

12z HRW NMMB model.  An example of how important this band will be for who gets the heaviest snow.  This is totally different than the NAM location for Central Nebraska.

[Clinton]

9z SREF only 10:1 available

 

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

9z SREF only 10:1 available

 

I think these bands will be nowcast events.  Any fluctuation will have huge impacts.  Plus the cold temps could really add up the totals with high ratios.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z HRW NMMB model.  An example of how important this band will be for who gets the heaviest snow.  This is totally different than the NAM location for Central Nebraska.

It's going to be a watch the radar type of week ahead.  Not much agreement though the 3km NAM almost looks like a good compromise.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, Clinton said:

It's going to be a watch the radar type of week ahead.  Not much agreement though the 3km NAM almost looks like a good compromise.

Good point.  Will be home tonight, can't wait to track it.

[Clinton]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

I think these bands will be nowcast events.  Any fluctuation will have huge impacts.  Plus the cold temps could really add up the totals with high ratios.

Completely agree.

[Clinton]

12z NAMs full run

[CentralNebWeather]

Got to say, I love the look of the 3 HRW models that go to 48 hours.  Wouldn't mind a slight shift south on a couple, but still look good.  Radar tonight will tell the tale on where and how extensive the band will be.  Ultimately, NWS North Platte said they think the arctic front will be farther southwest so they believe the bands will be southwest of Euro and NAM.  They are following the GFS saying it has been more consistent.  That would be something if GFS knocked King Euro off his perch.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z WRF-ARW2 model 10:1 ratio to 48 hours.  2nd wave just starting to snow.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12z RGEM.  This model has come southwest from previous runs.  Hope this continues.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12z ICON to 93 hours 

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z ICON to 93 hours 

The ICON is starting to build on the Mon-Tues storm.  That and a storm around Valetines Day were the only 2 storms I had pegged for the first half of Feb.  I guess I missed a few waves lol.

[Clinton]

12z GFS