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Super Bowl Weekend Multiple Waves


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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Thanks. Looks like you will do quite well also.

Appreciate it amigo. Yes, finally Winter has arrived! It looks so wonderful outside now. For i.e., I was looking out my window previously, right b4 sunset and I gotta tell ya, those mean looking clouds, along w a full snowcover, biting wind howling, frigid temps and also hearing those late evening snowblowers in full force in the far distance reaaaaalllllly makes up for some of  the loss we had thus far this Winter season. Ma Nature is getting ready pound a lot of us and this is just the beginning. The extended looks marvelous.

Enjoy ur evening bud....."Happy Tracking" 😉

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Probably 1.5 to 2" of squeaky cotton. 6F and the sounds and sights are surely a winter lovers delight!!!

One of our church lot piles. These are everywhere around town. Some even higher. Oh, it is snowing again. 

I just measured 6.3”” and it’s still snowing. There is quite a bit of blowing so might be off a little. Have heard reports of 6-7” from North Platte and East of there to the southeast towards Central

Posted Images

NAMs trending a little N tonight and better for C.IA. More QPF for all of Southern.C.IA --

Totals for ROund 1 and 2-   12km NAMsnku_acc.us_mw.pngsnku_acc.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z GFS through 75 hours. image.thumb.png.a17099c9bdb6b220f8b26f33ac737c21.png

Ok but 19" in Broken bow from a couple clippers ☠️😆

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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OAX forecasting 3-5" tonight and another 2-3" tomorrow night on top of 5" OTG. I want to try to wake up early tomorrow because last year I would've killed for a 3-5" event in Feb lol but we'll see. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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RAP showing signs of moving N big time (especially 2nd wave)-- and very high qpf in IA. snku_acc.conus.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

RAP showing signs of moving N big time (especially 2nd wave)-- and very high qpf in IA. snku_acc.conus.png

Nice little sliver of 12+ crossing right through my area! Just continue to spread the wealth models; it's always crazy how sharp the cut offs usually are with clippers. I'm usually on the southern end of these types of systems. I can't remember the last time Nebraska was in the center of clipper central. 

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Going off now cast either the band of heavy snow will be wider or further up to the north and east. North Platte expanded the warning up in that direction! Bodes well for us down stream I would think! 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1044 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

NEZ024-025-036-037-061500-
/O.UPG.KLBF.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210206T1500Z/
/O.EXA.KLBF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210206T1500Z/
Hooker-Thomas-McPherson-Logan-
Including the cities of Mullen, Thedford, Halsey, Tryon,
Ringgold, and Stapleton
1044 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 /944 PM MST Fri Feb 5 2021/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches.

* WHERE...Hooker, Thomas, McPherson and Logan Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chill values of zero to 10 below
  zero are expected Saturday morning.
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1 minute ago, gabel23 said:

Going off now cast either the band of heavy snow will be wider or further up to the north and east. North Platte expanded the warning up in that direction! Bodes well for us down stream I would think! 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1044 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

NEZ024-025-036-037-061500-
/O.UPG.KLBF.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210206T1500Z/
/O.EXA.KLBF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210206T1500Z/
Hooker-Thomas-McPherson-Logan-
Including the cities of Mullen, Thedford, Halsey, Tryon,
Ringgold, and Stapleton
1044 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 /944 PM MST Fri Feb 5 2021/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches.

* WHERE...Hooker, Thomas, McPherson and Logan Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chill values of zero to 10 below
  zero are expected Saturday morning.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1117 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

Radar and the short term models suggest a band of heavy snow is,
and will set up across parts of the central Sandhills overnight. A
few counties have been added to the Winter Storm Warning in effect
across Custer county. The model blended forecast suggests 4 to 7
inches within the Winter Storm warning area.
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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

First flakes starting to fall at 10:20 pm. 

Have fun out there!  Radar looks like its lining up for you and the models certainly are in general agreement that your area could very well be the jackzone.  I've seen these type of set ups deliver quite a bit of snow with such cold temps.  The fluff factor will def aid in snow accumulations.

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Folks - I'am weenie as most on here . But several things- Kuchera on Pivotal is much more accurate than on WXbell/

#2- when you go out past 12-15 hrs on either HRRR or RAP- your likely running the table to get accurate amounts if close. Coverage is better- esp  the RAP. The NWS has this down and is reflected in their forecasts. We should give them some wiggle room as they usually do A D**n good job. They also forecast such things not seen on Kuchera  ie.--- dendrite size and hence in these extreme ratios sometimes the QPF must be thrown out. This is not lake effect in the plains but extreme dry air being wringed out to the max. Expect much lower totals than 90% of guidance says. Esp in clipper - dry air - situations. My point is- expect dry air and or dendrite physical size to make a big difference in actual accumulations compared to actual qpf, which almost always seems to be overdone on all forms guidance. The NWS is usually pretty D**n good this close , so those upper end totals are exactly that-- probably top 10% of happening.  ESPECIALLY true in a clipper again. Most people outside Centrak NEB will see 2-4" through 96 hours. Just my .02 and remember the met's forecasting this stuff are highly trained. I know several. Give them the respect even though we see such and such model's showing this. They are highly skilled in what they do and why we are here. In the end- they usually (not always) win out agst these higher totals we see on operational runs.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Isn't this what makes part of the fun of being part of this forum?  Always that possibility of epic snow storms, awesome sledding or building a fort in 40" of snow. Good times because we all probably like analyzing data in here whether we know little or a lot. :) 

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Great disco by Hastings. As I thought last night, the initial band was farther south than they thought. It sat from North Platte to Lexington to Holdrege. Met said they probably should have had a couple more counties in WSW. Thinks the northeastern counties won’t be as high as initially forecasted for wave 1. They think some in this band will be over 6” when it ends later this morning. I haven’t measured yet, so I report back later. 

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Got to give the ICON some love. It had always had the heaviest band farther southwest than many of the models for days. GFS was also good as was Canadian. ICON has wave 2 tonight farther southwest than Hastings is predicting. Got to give credit where credit is due. ICON is typically questioned by many, including myself. 

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16 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Snow continues, heavy at times. Photo as of 6:22 am from Viaero cam in Holdrege 

39C53F0C-2402-4402-9A11-2D88C1248AE0.png

Looks amazing!  Congrats looks like a fun week ahead.  Radar is looking good as it heads my way.

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks amazing!  Congrats looks like a fun week ahead.  Radar is looking good as it heads my way.

We are quickly approaching 6” if not there already as heavy snow continues. Too cold and windy to go out yet. Just ball parking a guess. High ratio means any forecast in the coming days can over achieve. Hopefully this holds together and moves southeast towards KC area. Next wave looks to be hot its heels this evening. 

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I will post this here and maybe in the February discussion as well.

Yesterdays official snow fall total at GR of 7.9” broke the days snow fall record. It should be noted that historically by February in most years the lake effect is shut down by there being too much ice on the great lakes but this year that is not the case.

Here at my house, I now have a total of 12 inches of snow on the ground. At the current time there is light snow falling and the temperature is 14.

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Nice refresher snow currently in Omaha, maybe about an inch of fluffy snow in my backyard so far this morning and it’s coming down at fairly heavy rate.

Radar looks good for a couple more hours of moderate to heavy snow.

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I just measured 6.3”” and it’s still snowing. There is quite a bit of blowing so might be off a little. Have heard reports of 6-7” from North Platte and East of there to the southeast towards Central Nebraska. I might get to 7” if we can get snow to keep reforming. NWS Hastings had me in 2-4”. Always thought that was too low. They admitted in their disco that the band was farther south than they had thought. Will see if I can over achieve tonight into Sunday. 

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