Tony Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Never started a topic before and models seem to have some sort of system or a series of waves around this time period. Hope I don't jinx it for us but here we go. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Bud posted the Nam earlier and it is shaping up to be a nice hit for many. Ratios should also be fairly high. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 20 minutes ago, Tony said: Never started a topic before and models seem to have some sort of system or a series of waves around this time period. Hope I don't jinx it for us but here we go. Looking like this could be a long duration event around here with some added lake enhancement. I like the potential with this set up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I like the potential as well. Fingers crossed! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Iowa really needs the PV lobe to hold nw a bit more. Otherwise, the snow band streaks east across northern Missouri and then only lifts northeast once to our east. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 The Euro has inched back nw the last few runs. Today's 12z would drop a few inches around here. It's a shame there is very little moisture available. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z Euro through 156 hours 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12z Euro through 156 hours im not buying this run. it looks like it hits a straight wall from central nebraska straight down to texas lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z GFS Mean 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z Euro Mean 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro Mean There are some nice hits on these. Hoping for each model run to increase totals. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro Mean I notice these are at 10:1 ratios. I would think we will be quite a bit higher than that with these waves and these very cold conditions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 The early NAM runs are farther nw than the other globals. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 The GFSv16 is back and it's south with the weekend snow. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 My office says nothing snow wise coming. So just cold and boring. Not sure where these totals are coming from for Michigan? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 18z GFS for this storm. 10:1 ratio is all that's available for this map so adjust your ratios. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 IWX && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021 Medium range models coming into reasonable agreement on re- enforcing arctic intrusion for this weekend. Latest deterministic runs have closed low vortex rotating down toward the US/Canadian border to begin the weekend then swinging eastward across the northern Great Lakes region. GEFS members showing good clustering with low level thermal fields as 850mb thermal low drops down into the northern plains/Upper MS valley Saturday night/Sunday morning...then becoming more dispersive as the thermal trough shifts eastward over the Great Lakes. Biggest impact for arctic airmass will be realized Monday morning...despite 15F spread within the NBM, ensemble solutions trending toward sub-zero lows...-5 to -10F...with -15 to -20 wind chills. Plenty of uncertainty with respect to snowfall potential this weekend as models showing coastal low development but GFS/GEM both having secondary wave development over the Appalacians which could enhance snow potential for our area...something to keep an eye on for now as NBM still carrying just low chance POPs Saturday. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 NWS Hastings disco snow potential “Temperatures this cold also guarantee high snow ratios. This means that even very light QPF amounts can lead to a few inches of snowfall. Given the amount of snowpack that is already on the ground, it will be important to pay attention to potential snowband locations for the multiple rounds this weekend. Snow totals would easily add up if the same areas end up under a band multiple times over the weekend.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 18Z Euo through HR 90- 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 The 00z NAM still has a good look for many of us. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The 00z NAM still has a good look for many of us. Looks really juiced up. Could be a really snowy weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 00z ICON is south, 00z GFS is south Both have nothing at all here. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 0z GFS looking like the 12z Euro. Rats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 0z GFS v16 through 126 hours. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Uk appears S and drier compared to 12Z Pivotal not loading precip maps but 2M RH levels are and it's clearly S and drier (at least in IA). Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 The NAM is on its own. Everything else is going south and dry. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 The Euro is not bad at all. It does not sag the PV lobe southward as much as other models, so a band of decent snow (probably double this with a good ratio) is able to streak across Iowa. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Some in W.NE is a different system- but this is totals through HR 102 Euro KUchera 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 00z EPS and Control...this is starting to look like a long duration event across the I-80 corridor but as you get closer to the lake around these parts there is growing consensus that there will be LEHS. Both the EPS/EC are definitely picking up on this potential. A nearly perfectly placed Arctic HP centered to the NW of here allowing for a long duration N/NE Flow off the wide open lake. Could this finally be the winning ticket for us snow geese in Chicagoland and MKE area??? As much as I am digging this look inside 5 days, we know much can change wrt to the LEHS parameters. Needless to say, the trends are looking up and not down. Some of the snow in the map below for NE is coming from the next storm we will likely be tracking for President's Day.... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 06z NAM...looking impressive through Sat.... 06z RDPS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 6z Euro looking good for I-80 folks. 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 6z Euro looking good for I-80 folks. Does that only go out to 90 hours? Hastings is mentioning the storm Sunday into Monday that will move from western to central Nebraska then off to the southeast. They said that one might give us another decent amount. Thanks for all your help on the board. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 51 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Does that only go out to 90 hours? Hastings is mentioning the storm Sunday into Monday that will move from western to central Nebraska then off to the southeast. They said that one might give us another decent amount. Thanks for all your help on the board. Here is the Euro Control for the full 144. I only have 10:1 available. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, Clinton said: Here is the Euro Control for the full 144. I only have 10:1 available. Thanks Clinton. Hastings seems to think that storm will bring more snow to my region than the Friday system. They look similar to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 18 minutes ago, Clinton said: Here is the Euro Control for the full 144. I only have 10:1 available. Hastings is mentioning 20:1 ratios and says that this looks like another decent storm. Obviously that would up the amounts from a 10:1 ratio. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z NAM. This would not include the Saturday night through Sunday night storm that might come on the heels of this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z RGEM through noon on Saturday. Interesting to see where the heaviest of this Friday storm falls. Will it be more north or south? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 12Z NWS Blend through 144 hours. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 CentralNeb, you posted the 06z NAM and RDPS, not the 12z. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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