Jump to content

Valentines Weekend Snow


Tony

Recommended Posts

  • Tom pinned this topic
20 minutes ago, Tony said:

Never started a topic before and models seem to have some sort of system or a series of waves around this time period. Hope I don't jinx it for us but here we go.

 

GDPS.png

UKMET.png

Looking like this could be a long duration event around here with some added lake enhancement.  I like the potential with this set up.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like the potential as well. Fingers crossed!

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Iowa really needs the PV lobe to hold nw a bit more.  Otherwise, the snow band streaks east across northern Missouri and then only lifts northeast once to our east.

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro has inched back nw the last few runs.  Today's 12z would drop a few inches around here.  It's a shame there is very little moisture available.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IWX

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

Medium range models coming into reasonable agreement on re-
enforcing arctic intrusion for this weekend. Latest deterministic
runs have closed low vortex rotating down toward the US/Canadian
border to begin the weekend then swinging eastward across the
northern Great Lakes region. GEFS members showing good clustering
with low level thermal fields as 850mb thermal low drops down into
the northern plains/Upper MS valley Saturday night/Sunday
morning...then becoming more dispersive as the thermal trough
shifts eastward over the Great Lakes. Biggest impact for arctic
airmass will be realized Monday morning...despite 15F spread
within the NBM, ensemble solutions trending toward sub-zero
lows...-5 to -10F...with -15 to -20 wind chills. Plenty of
uncertainty with respect to snowfall potential this weekend as
models showing coastal low development but GFS/GEM both having
secondary wave development over the Appalacians which could
enhance snow potential for our area...something to keep an eye on
for now as NBM still carrying just low chance POPs Saturday.
  • Like 4

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS Hastings disco snow potential

“Temperatures this cold also guarantee high snow ratios. This means that even very light QPF amounts can lead to a few inches of snowfall. Given the amount of snowpack that is already on the ground, it will be important to pay attention to potential snowband locations for the multiple rounds this weekend. Snow totals would easily add up if the same areas end up under a band multiple times over the weekend.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro is not bad at all.  It does not sag the PV lobe southward as much as other models, so a band of decent snow (probably double this with a good ratio) is able to streak across Iowa.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

  • Like 4

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z EPS and Control...this is starting to look like a long duration event across the I-80 corridor but as you get closer to the lake around these parts there is growing consensus that there will be LEHS.  Both the EPS/EC are definitely picking up on this potential.  A nearly perfectly placed Arctic HP centered to the NW of here allowing for a long duration N/NE Flow off the wide open lake.  Could this finally be the winning ticket for us snow geese in Chicagoland and MKE area???  As much as I am digging this look inside 5 days, we know much can change wrt to the LEHS parameters.  Needless to say, the trends are looking up and not down.

 

3.png

4.png

 

Some of the snow in the map below for NE is coming from the next storm we will likely be tracking for President's Day....

 

5.png

 

 

2.png

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro looking good for I-80 folks.

1613260800-5rxrAzSv3T0.png

Does that only go out to 90 hours?  Hastings is mentioning the storm Sunday into Monday that will move from western to central Nebraska then off to the southeast.  They said that one might give us another decent amount.  Thanks for all your help on the board.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Does that only go out to 90 hours?  Hastings is mentioning the storm Sunday into Monday that will move from western to central Nebraska then off to the southeast.  They said that one might give us another decent amount.  Thanks for all your help on the board.

Here is the Euro Control for the full 144.  I only have 10:1 available.

1613455200-wBdgZSrlNAI.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...