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Valentines Weekend Snow


Tony

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End of NAM has snow well into IOWA from 2nd wave- which I believe will become a biggie. This  just screams potential.....Wheres the DGEX when you need it. Lolref1km_ptype.conus.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I'd pay some serious jing to witness -13F (-33 wci )  in DSM with accumulating snow falling- I believe that would be a record for KDSM for coldest accumulating snowfall. The -50F near Rugby,ND would be a bonus---- btw- the wind chill map is literally off the charts for colors--- it only  goes down to -60F. sfctapp.us_nc.pngsfct.us_nc.png

prateptype.us_nc.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The UK has finally come north and lays down a few inches through Iowa.  The GFS is now a dry outlier.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro trending much better and for a lot of us across the I-80 corridor and into the GL's.  Looks like the snow shield is more broad and covers a lot more real estate compared to previous runs.  Solid 3-6" snowfall area wide with additional LES across SE WI/NE IL.  The global models don't necessarily pick up the banding this far out compared to the CAM's.  The Euro does, however, show the LES/LEHS signal 

 

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The trend is for the best snow today to be over northern Iowa and then tomorrow/Saturday over southern Iowa.  Hopefully, the NAMs are correct that the waves will combine to produce 4+" here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NWS Hastings is saying 1-5" tomorrow, generally more north, but models this morning still have bands in different places.  They haven't put out specifics yet for the Saturday night - Monday morning storm, but that one looks more impressive for my area.  They say the heaviest will be southwest of the Kearney area towards NW, NC Kansas.  I could see that being a 4"+ storm for our area.  I'll look at the other models that are just coming in now.

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9 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

as much as i want the GFS to be right for my area this week it has been completely wrong. On Monday it was saying we should have 8 inches of snow by now and we have only received maybe half a inch. 

No matter how bad it is we still all look at it and post maps from it. If it shows something hot then its our model to go to but unfortunately it hardly ever pans out. 

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Now that I've looked at all the models, except the 12z Euro, here's my prediction.  I think my area may get 2", maybe 2.5" if we snow a little earlier or it lasts longer on Friday.  I think the 2nd wave (Saturday night-Sunday night) will be a good snow producer for my area and southwest.  I think we could hit 4-6" if everything lines up.  If we could get 6" or a little more this weekend, I'd be happy.  We'll see if I'm close or not.

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30 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GDPS shows 3.3" in Cedar Rapids today... 🤔  Forecast is less than an inch.  

I think it will depend on how far south the snow band gets.  Some models keep it mostly north, just grazing Cedar Rapids.  The GDPS sags it farther south.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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