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I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Taking a closer look at the 00z GFS, it actually shows more snow than the Euro now for out on the eastside. Nice!

If both of them are right, it's getting closer to showtime for out here.

gfs-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-3260800 (2).png

No doubt we will be well above 10:1 ratios tonight.  The Kuchera may be closer to the truth.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Very harsh gradient as promised— south metro I see lots of reports of heavy ice glazing. Meanwhile north of here should do well. Still sleet but I see snow start to mix in... fascinating nonetheless.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, Lynnwoodweather said:

Another longtime lurker, first time poster here. This storm is bringing out everyone who ever wanted to post! Looking forward to a long night watching the streetlights here in south Snohomish county! 

Don't be strangers.  Stick around!!

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Not too smart with these things but am I already seeing the little wind effect thing over me where the precip is all sucked away? Hole looks awfully similar to the low amounts dome in some of the models. Maybe I’m wrong though 

DB8F30F8-6053-4146-B512-8C78BBB75948.jpeg

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My dad was a little salty he hasn’t seen much snow in Port Townsend yet (just a trace so far) compared to down here. I think he’s on team north :angry:

Good news is it sounded like it started snowing at a good clip there as we were talking.

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Just now, Jesse said:

My dad was a little salty he hasn’t seen much snow in Port Townsend yet (just a trace so far) compared to down here. I think he’s on team north :angry:

Good news is it sounded like it started snowing at a good clip there as we were talking.

Snowing here mostly now

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt we will be well above 10:1 ratios tonight.  The Kuchera may be closer to the truth.

Practically every met that I've seen post maps on Twitter has used the Kuchera ratio. Seems to be what most are thinking will be closest to actual ratios so I've stuck with it, even though it feels artificially pretty.

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, Lynnwoodweather said:

Another longtime lurker, first time poster here. This storm is bringing out everyone who ever wanted to post! Looking forward to a long night watching the streetlights here in south Snohomish county! 

Lived in south Everett most of my life until 2014. The convergence zone is what got me so into weather. Fascinated me everytime we had a crazy snow event. Spent many nights looking out side trying to spot flakes in the street lights

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1 minute ago, Shawn344 said:

Not too smart with these things but am I already seeing the little wind effect thing over me where the precip is all sucked away? Hole looks awfully similar to the low amounts dome in some of the models. Maybe I’m wrong though 

DB8F30F8-6053-4146-B512-8C78BBB75948.jpeg

Also watching that on the radar, was curious about this as well. 

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5 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Heavy snow and 23 in Battle Ground.  Probably the heaviest stratiform snow I've seen.  I'd love some thundersnow!

Hopefully my forecast of 18-24” N or Washougal - Ridgefield line is even half right...there’s hope

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Listen. I understand why the local Seattle Mets are being conservative about those east winds, especially those on TV. But some are saying things like 1-3 inches for Issaquah. Which is obviously possible.

But the Nam, GFS, and Euro are all saying 7, 8, 9+ ... it seems a bit odd that every major forecasting tool (except maybe the WRF) is saying big big numbers and they are hedging SO low. I would understand if there was some major split in the models, but there’s nothing.

I know like two hours ago I defended the NWS for being cautious. But with the most recent Nam and GFS and the 18z Euro, I’m a bit perplexed. You can tell Morgan Palmer wants to increase his forecast. He’s itching too, but they’re all being so cautious.

Which is fine I guess. I’m not losing any sleep over it :) I just think, at what point would they follow the tools they’ve been given.

we know what’s going on. We are smart and make an effort. But 98% of people have no clue and if things pan out like the professional tools say they will, some people could be very much caught off guard. 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

My dad was a little salty he hasn’t seen much snow in Port Townsend yet (just a trace so far) compared to down here. I think he’s on team north :angry:

Good news is it sounded like it started snowing at a good clip there as we were talking.

Seeing more snow down your way yet? Easily the heaviest snow of the event so far right now here.

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Just now, jakerepp said:

Wait, thunder snow??

Transformers blowing up, likely.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Wet snow/sleet mix now. Rooting for you guys, get those snow totals up!

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I hope the 00z WRF is wrong about this. 1 AM sounding for PDX looks gross. That would be straight ZR. 

kpdx.09.0000.snd.gif

Eventually goes back to a snow sounding though and still decent precip going

kpdx.12.0000.snd.gif

 

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4 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Listen. I understand why the local Seattle Mets are being conservative about those east winds, especially those on TV. But some are saying things like 1-3 inches for Issaquah. Which is obviously possible.

But the Nam, GFS, and Euro are all saying 7, 8, 9+ ... it seems a bit odd that every major forecasting tool (except maybe the WRF) is saying big big numbers and they are hedging SO low. I would understand if there was some major split in the models, but there’s nothing.

I know like two hours ago I defended the NWS for being cautious. But with the most recent Nam and GFS and the 18z Euro, I’m a bit perplexed. You can tell Morgan Palmer wants to increase his forecast. He’s itching too, but they’re all being so cautious.

Which is fine I guess. I’m not losing any sleep over it :) I just think, at what point would they follow the tools they’ve been given.

we know what’s going on. We are smart and make an effort. But 98% of people have no clue and if things pan out like the professional tools say they will, some people could be very much caught off guard. 

Its a weekend now... and things shut down here for 2 inches of snow anyways.    Does it really matter if there is 3 inches or 6 inches in Issaquah tomorrow?    It will be very wintry either way and that is what the average person needs to know.   And by noon tomorrow this debate will be over... that is not long to wait!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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