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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

PDX High Temp 21 Friday

sfct.us_nw.png

Totally ridiculous. I get some kind of mid level warm layer and get crushed with ZR on this run (and 10” of snow) the ZR map would be appreciated, I bet it’s going to be ugly for me. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Totally ridiculous. I get some kind of mid level warm layer and get crushed with ZR on this run (and 10” of snow) the ZR map would be appreciated, I bet it’s going to be ugly for me. 

 

fram_acc.us_state_or.png

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

 

fram_acc.us_state_or.png

Thanks! 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Glad to see there are more questions than answers with each runs. Thursday is tomorrow right? Yup. 

GFS ensembles have pretty much converged too...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6z GEFS for PDX shows another new wrinkle. Now 850mb mean temp cools again Saturday into Sunday back to -6.2c. Hmmm... Friday also much colder mean high temp 22 F. PDX and Seattle both also barely warm to 32 briefly Sunday before dropping into the upper 20s going into Monday not moderating like previous runs.
 
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I believe the euro 00z was northern outlier.  Still believe the first system is non event south of Olympia and Portland will be bullseye . On way to get my plow truck at my cabin and my gut tells me I will barely need it at home the coming days.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Deeper arctic air is now surging over the Canadian border into north central and northeast Washington. 850s of -19c are seen over southern British Columbia with -15c nearing Oroville(north of Omak). RAP 4hr trends shows the air mass moving south about 150 miles over that period of time. That's pretty decent. Additionally, the YKA(Kamloops) to OMK(Omak) gradient is now up to +9.1mb with good pressure rises over southern British Columbia. Watching Mesoanalysis 925/850mb temp charts and the OMK(Omak) to (PDT) Pendleton gradient will be very useful to track the progress of the frigid air mass into the Columbia Basin. No pressure rises just yet at Omak which will signal the secondary arctic front sliding south towards Moses Lake. Let's see how well this progresses by this evening. The sooner the better!
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I fell asleep at 9 p.m. so I am up early... too many late nights I guess.

Here is the 06Z ECMWF through Saturday afternoon.    And somehow it now shows temps into the 40s with a fairly strong south wind through the Sound by Saturday. Seems like it was showing 20s that day last time at checked.   The over-aggressive cold in the models will stand out as one of the more remarkable aspects of this pattern... it has been comically bad.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3260800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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To illustrate the huge changes for Saturday... the 12Z run from yesterday on top and the new 06Z run on the bottom for Saturday afternoon.     Unbelievable.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-3260800 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-3260800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Side note... the Saturday system is now a Friday night system on the 06Z ECMWF.   The main precip shield is moving east of the I-5 corridor by early Saturday morning.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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06Z EPS still looks very snowy... more snow for the northern people than the 00Z EPS.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-total_snow_10to1-3347200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Totally ridiculous. I get some kind of mid level warm layer and get crushed with ZR on this run (and 10” of snow) the ZR map would be appreciated, I bet it’s going to be ugly for me. 

How far north do you see the ZR line going before back to snow on this model run?  Molalla?  Estacada?  I'm talking foothills.

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NWS Seattle updated the WSW and is now calling for totals anywhere from 2-13 inches. In other words, they have no idea what will happen.

Pretty crazy that we are about 24 hours out from an event starting and we don't know whether it will amount to your more run of the mill snow and drop 2 inches, or if it will be a major snowstorm dropping 13 inches.

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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12Z NAM looks great for Portland... much like the 00Z run.    And there is sharp cutoff in precip just south of King County through Friday with the first system.  

And we are now in range of the HRRR!    Here is 4 a.m. tomorrow morning...

 

1ref_t1sfc_f24.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

How far north do you see the ZR line going before back to snow on this model run?  Molalla?  Estacada?  I'm talking foothills.

Here is total freezing rain per the 06Z ECMWF through Saturday afternoon...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-frzr_total-3260800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is total freezing rain per the 06Z ECMWF through Saturday afternoon...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-frzr_total-3260800.png

An 1"+ in area/s like Beaverton, Cedar Mills, Aloha, Newburg, Tigard, and further to the SW

Not good

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The 12Z NAM looks similar to its 00Z run with the low position on Saturday... and is very likely going to be wrong based on recent ECMWF trends.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Andrew M said:

BOOM!!

 

 

B2A23380-FEF5-4142-80C5-AD2046E56FF0.jpeg

Boom Shaka Laka! 🥶

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Just now, Timmy said:

Some models are gonna look pretty foolish in the next couple days

Agreed. Euro appears to be the outlier so far. Will be interesting to see if it plays catchup or holds steady this afternoon.

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I can't believe what I just read Mr. Mark Nelsen say in his latest blog post.  When he is this emphatic then you know something amazing is about to occur.  He actually said 15-30" in the gorge possibly, in mid-February.  Holy hell.

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is total freezing rain per the 06Z ECMWF through Saturday afternoon...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-frzr_total-3260800.png

D**n, my current job has me driving all over the westside through the day. Friday may not be very fun. 

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