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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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Just now, FroYoBro said:

D**n, my current job has me driving all over the westside through the day. Friday may not be very fun. 

NAM paints a Crippling and destructive ice storm for Yamhill, western Clackamas, western Marion, Polk, Tillamook counties.

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7 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

Agreed. Euro appears to be the outlier so far. Will be interesting to see if it plays catchup or holds steady this afternoon.

I think the other models will catch up to the Euro by tonight. Hope I’m wrong though. I want snow. 

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7 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I can't believe what I just read Mr. Mark Nelsen say in his latest blog post.  When he is this emphatic then you know something amazing is about to occur.  He actually said 15-30" in the gorge possibly, in mid-February.  Holy hell.

So he's disregarding the EURO?  Doesn't seem like his usual conservative response.  I'm a little puzzled with this forecast.  He's not infallible.  He busted when the EURO had us getting buried a couple years ago and the GFS won the battle.  We got zip and Wa got all the snow.  He's still the best but I'm scratching my head on this one.

 

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I think it will start as freezing rain in PDX and transition to sleet then snow as precip rates increase and this transition will progress west and southwest from troutdale.  The speed of transition will be quickest North of the Columbia River, with snow from the very start probably north of a line from Washougal to Ridgefield.

Freezing rain probably will extend pretty far south.  Some ugly icing amounts expected.

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1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

So he's disregarding the EURO?  Doesn't seem like his usual conservative response.  I'm a little puzzled with this forecast.  He's not infallible.  He busted when the EURO had us getting buried a couple years ago and the GFS won the battle.  We got zip and Wa got all the snow. 

Read his post.  He is almost certain Portland, especially north and east counties are getting nuked.

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4 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Remember if your power goes out, do NOT call 911 to report it. You would be shocked at just how many people think that calling the police will turn their power back on. Call your power company to report.

Ignorant people just can't help themselves, they are the same one's that overreact witnessing a fender bender. 

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Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Read his post.  He is almost certain Portland, especially north and east counties are getting nuked.

I read it.  That's why I'm scratching my head.  That seems like a fairly small area when you're talking PDX Metro.  Many of us are SE Metro, S Metro, SW Metro or transitioning out of the Metro towards OC, Oswego, etc.  I understand you can't forecast microclimates very well.  If we're just talking east county like Gresham and Troutdale and maybe west towards Forest Grove, I see that as pretty localized.  Just my take on it. 

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5 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

So he's disregarding the EURO?  Doesn't seem like his usual conservative response.  I'm a little puzzled with this forecast.  He's not infallible.  He busted when the EURO had us getting buried a couple years ago and the GFS won the battle.  We got zip and Wa got all the snow.  He's still the best but I'm scratching my head on this one.

 

The Euro still shows 3-5" of snow (a bit more north and near the gorge) for much of the Portland metro with close to an inch of ice. It would be a very significant winter storm, albeit a fairly short lived one as Saturday is a south wind blast.

Obviously the other models show a lot more snow, but at this point the entire Portland metro looks safely in the winter storm warning verification zone.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

The Euro still shows 3-5" of snow (a bit more north and near the gorge) for much of the Portland metro with close to an inch of ice. It would be a very significant winter storm, albeit a fairly short lived one as Saturday is a south wind blast.

Obviously the other models show a lot more snow, but at this point the entire Portland metro looks safely in the winter storm warning verification zone.

Do you think euro will hold course? Other models come in to better agreement with euro?

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

I read it.  That's why I'm scratching my head.  That seems like a fairly small area when you're talking PDX Metro.  Many of us are SE Metro, S Metro, SW Metro or transitioning out of the Metro towards OC, Oswego, etc.  I understand you can't forecast microclimates very well.  If we're just talking east county like Gresham and Troutdale and maybe west towards Forest Grove, I see that as pretty localized.  Just my take on it. 

Well, he did forecast 2-12" so he covered his butt somewhat.  He botched Jan 10, 2017 real bad as well, as all meteos did.  I remember him saying that the westside would get the most snow and then that convective band just nuked N. Portland and points east.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

The Euro still shows 3-5" of snow (a bit more north and near the gorge) for much of the Portland metro with close to an inch of ice. It would be a very significant winter storm, albeit a fairly short lived one as Saturday is a south wind blast.

Obviously the other models show a lot more snow, but at this point the entire Portland metro looks safely in the winter storm warning verification zone.

I guess I'm splitting hairs between snow and ice.  Ice certainly is a highly impactful event.  I agree with that.  I was looking at it from a snow perspective.  That's probably not fair for me to do that. 

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1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Well, he did forecast 2-12" so he covered his butt somewhat.  He botched Jan 10, 2017 real bad as well, as all meteos did.  I remember him saying that the westside would get the most snow and then that convective band just nuked N. Portland and points east.

Yea that was the one he blew.  Rod Hill nailed that one from the get go. He sat on the GFS all the way.   Rod has Friday being rather benign but possible snowstorm for Saturday.  We'll see who's right on this one. 

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Lot's to catch up on since 9pm...

Wow, what on Earth is going to happen? Crazy that we are around 24 hours from the first storm and I still have no idea if I am stuck at home for 3 days or if I have to try to make a snowman with a dusting. 

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1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Lot's to catch up on since 9pm...

Wow, what on Earth is going to happen? Crazy that we are around 24 hours from the first storm and I still have no idea if I am stuck at home for 3 days or if I have to try to make a snowman with a dusting. 

We might be carving ice sculptures here.  Maybe a Lou Pinella?

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1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

Yea that was the one he blew.  Rod Hill nailed that one from the get go. He sat on the GFS all the way.   Rod has Friday being rather benign but possible snowstorm for Saturday.  We'll see who's right on this one. 

I'm pretty sure Rod is banking on the first storm cranking out a lot of marginal precip.  Once the low passes it will draw more cold air in and set the stage for the next wave.  That is kind of my thoughts as well but it is all a totally different animal over here, it'll be more about precip instead of temp.

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I think the EURO would have most of us at 40 and rain on Saturday.  That would seriously cut into the huge snow forecasts up and down the I 5.  Tim pointed those out this morning.  Thanks Tim!

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9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Do you think euro will hold course? Other models come in to better agreement with euro?

Other models will probably cut back on the 20"+ stuff and move further towards the Euro, but the first storm going way north doesn't really have support at this point, so I think the Euro will stray a bit from the Raymond, WA idea. Not sure what the 06z did exactly there with the track.

 It could also be understating the depth of the cold a little. I'm reminded of February 2014 in Eugene, which seems pretty comparable to what Portland is going to see here. I think the Euro was pretty insistent they would be all ZR with that but the 0c line held firm and they saw a pretty significant amount of snow before the transition. In these rare dynamic cooling + low level CAA situations I think the model maybe overstates the prominence of thin warm layers somewhat. Either way, I think Portland sees a fairly mixed bag of precip types.

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1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I'm pretty sure Rod is banking on the first storm cranking out a lot of marginal precip.  Once the low passes it will draw more cold air in and set the stage for the next wave.  That is kind of my thoughts as well but it is all a totally different animal over here, it'll be more about precip instead of temp.

You'll have a deep pool of cold air in place.  You just need precip.  That's exactly what Rod is thinnking.  Probably reasonable but the atmosphere is so difficult to nail down right now it's impossible to really handle who wins, cold or warm until we're right there. 

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Dropped to 24.8F this morning. Now at 28. NWS says no snow up here until the transition to rain so that's exciting! Could be hard to stay colder than yesterday, but maybe clouds and winds will keep temps down.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Other models will probably cut back on the 20"+ stuff and move further towards the Euro, but the first storm going way north doesn't really have support at this point, so I think the Euro will stray a bit from the Raymond, WA idea. Not sure what the 06z did exactly there with the track.

 It could also be understating the depth of the cold a little. I'm reminded of February 2014 in Eugene, which seems pretty comparable to what Portland is going to see here. I think the Euro was pretty insistent they would be all ZR with that but the 0c line held firm and they saw a pretty significant amount of snow before the transition. In these rare dynamic cooling + low level CAA situations I think the model maybe overstates the prominence of thin warm layers somewhat. Either way, I think Portland sees a fairly mixed bag of precip types.

worse than the low placement is the amount of warming the euro wants to shove ahead of the low, which seems really unmatched by any other model. 

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26 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

I guess I'm splitting hairs between snow and ice.  Ice certainly is a highly impactful event.  I agree with that.  I was looking at it from a snow perspective.  That's probably not fair for me to do that. 

We'd all prefer the former, but from a sheer impact standpoint the latter is probably even more significant. And it's been quite a long time since most of the metro area has seen the ice accumulations that are going to be possible here. 

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Below freezing here despite being cloudy this morning... snow is crunchy.

20210210_071425.jpg

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Clouded up and up to 27 currently. DP 25.

had a low of 24 which is the coldest of the season!! 
 

What’s the warmest seasonal low temperature you’ve recorded at your location?

It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

You'll have a deep pool of cold air in place.  You just need precip.  That's exactly what Rod is thinnking.  Probably reasonable but the atmosphere is so difficult to nail down right now it's impossible to really handle who wins, cold or warm until we're right there. 

Actually going to be some warm nosing SW of Bend per the AFD...lol.  We do get it over here as well.  I am lucky to be far enough north that it won't happen this go around.  It is all going to depend on where that boundary sets up with the frontogenesis, and that other thing they always talk about, dendritic growth zone.

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2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

worse than the low placement is the amount of warming the euro wants to shove ahead of the low, which seems really unmatched by any other model. 

My guess is that PDX gets impactful amounts of both. They typically do, in major winter storms.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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12 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Yea that was the one he blew.  Rod Hill nailed that one from the get go. He sat on the GFS all the way.   Rod has Friday being rather benign but possible snowstorm for Saturday.  We'll see who's right on this one. 

Rod Hill has up to 15 inches in his forecast for sea level Portland. He is calling for up to 4 inches tomorrow night then an additional 1-3 inches on Friday, then up to 8 inches Saturday.

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Just now, Andrew M said:

Rod Hill has up to 15 inches in his forecast for sea level Portland. He is calling for up to 4 inches tomorrow night then an additional 1-3 inches on Friday, then up to 8 inches Saturday.

I agree with him.  Friday overnight and Saturday are looking real juicy!!!

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12Z ICON shows rain for Portland tomorrow...

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_11.png

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

We'd all prefer the latter, but from a sheer impact standpoint the former is probably even more significant. And it's been quite a long time since most of the metro area has seen the ice accumulations that are going to be possible here. 

'08 was my last ice event but it was sandwiched in between a 6" and a 8" snowfall.  It was about 22f and raining leaving my 6" with a solid 1/4" of ice before the air column cooled off again.  Didn't have the same impact of just pure ice coating streets and lines.  Still made for difficult driving but that was more because of the sheer amount of snow on the roads.  That was a great event. 

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Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said:

You never fail to amaze!!!

 

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ICON shows rain for Portland tomorrow...

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_11.png

Probably a ribbon of ZR and sleet in that snow/rain line.

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3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Actually going to be some warm nosing SW of Bend per the AFD...lol.  We do get it over here as well.  I am lucky to be far enough north that it won't happen this go around.  It is all going to depend on where that boundary sets up with the frontogenesis, and that other thing they always talk about, dendritic growth zone.

I have good friends in Eagle Crest.  They seem to do pretty well there.  They get some upsloping that helps.  They had about 3' when you all got smacked last. 

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1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

I have good friends in Eagle Crest.  They seem to do pretty well there.  They get some upsloping that helps.  They had about 3' when you all got smacked last. 

Ya, looks like we got some seriously packed isobars as the brunt of the moisture comes ashore.  They usually underdo the totals not taking into account potential upslope enhancement.

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7 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

worse than the low placement is the amount of warming the euro wants to shove ahead of the low, which seems really unmatched by any other model. 

History tells us that models overwhelmingly kill the gorge too quickly as well. Again, haven't seen the low placement on the 06z Euro for Saturday but for now I am skeptical that a weakish low that never moves fully inland would do much to thaw us out. Weak southerly gradients aloft aren't going to kill the outflow and low level cold in place by then.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

History tells us that models overwhelmingly kill the gorge too quickly as well. Again, haven't seen the low placement on the 06z Euro for Saturday but for now I am skeptical that a weakish low that never moves fully inland would do much to thaw us out. Weak southerly gradients aloft aren't going to kill the outflow and low level cold in place by then.

the trick is thinking that the EURO could be wrong in this situation. Reputation carries a lot of weight.

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5 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

Rod Hill has up to 15 inches in his forecast for sea level Portland. He is calling for up to 4 inches tomorrow night then an additional 1-3 inches on Friday, then up to 8 inches Saturday.

I'm south and east of PDX.  Closer to Estacada.  I tend to get warm nosed there a lot.  I don't know what to expect where I'm at.  I can only go from past similar set ups.  That's a bold forecast for him to make.  Between he and Mark it's going to be interesting to see this play out.  Rod likes the GFS typically.  Mark leans more on the EURO but all bets are off on this one.  Steve Pierce does a decent job but he gets excited and early on.  A bit of sensationalism sometimes.  It's good for eyeballs but it's not always good for his resume. 

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1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

I'm south and east of PDX.  Closer to Estacada.  I tend to get warm nosed there a lot.  I don't know what to expect where I'm at.  I can only go from past similar set ups.  That's a bold forecast for him to make.  Between he and Mark it's going to be interesting to see this play out.  Rod likes the GFS typically.  Mark leans more on the EURO but all bets are off on this one.  Steve Pierce does a decent job but he gets excited and early on.  A bit of sensationalism sometimes.  It's good for eyeballs but it's not always good for his resume. 

I'm in a somewhat similar boat. I don't think i'll get much of warm nose in the hills here, but i could be right on the dividing line between snow and sleet potentially for a good chunk of it at first. Or my elevation may end up playing a big role here too, time will tell.

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10 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

You never fail to amaze!!!

Seriously?   We are looking at every model run right now.    It's information.   The ICON is probably clueless... but its a new model run.   You say nothing when I post snowy maps.  

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