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I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The parallel GFS also brings the low in much further South . . .

 

prateptype_cat.us_nw (1).png

sn10_acc.us_nw (38).png

Watching the surface pressure loop of the ECMWF and the GFS... the discrepancies appear to be related to a main low up near Vancouver Island and some smaller low centers floating around.    

The 18Z ECMWF did have a little low pop up and disappear a couple hours later early Monday morning rotating around the main low.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-mslp_anom-3394000.png

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Retrograding -NAO was the driver this time. Without it, this period likely wouldn’t have amounted to anything. 

And, just as 2018-19 did, this winter yet again demonstrates the importance of the stratosphere and its teleconnective relationship with the tropics in modulating the (sub)seasonal pattern evolution.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching the surface pressure loop of the ECMWF and the GFS... the issue appears to be a main low up near Vancouver Island and some smaller low centers around.    

The 18Z did have a little low pop up and disappear a couple hours later early Monday morning rotating around the main low.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-mslp_anom-3394000.png

That's exactly what we need to track. A secondary low like that would be enough to significantly change the surface pressure orientation across Western Washington and keep frozen precipitation going much longer.

One thing is clear. There is an unusually large range of possibilities over the next 36 hours. We will likely be dealing with a large amount of precipitation that will falling while temperatures are between about 31 and 36 degrees. A 2-3 degree swing in either direction will make the difference between brief snow followed by rain, significant snow, or snow followed by sleet or ZR. Fascinating stuff.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The parallel GFS also brings the low in much further South and shows significant snowfall . .

 

prateptype_cat.us_nw (1).png

 

sn10_acc.us_nw (39).png

Funny we go from rooting for things to shift north to rooting for them to shift south. If that does happen there's still plenty of cold air to tap into. Whistler is still only 15F and Lytton is 11F. The Fraser Valley has warmed (albeit still in the 28~32F range with low dewpoints). The BC interior is still bitter cold with rising pressure readings again.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I really think someone should be the designated downplayer of any potential tomorrow/Monday, any ideas?

I am trying to understand it as well.    And now a little concerned about the potential for a major ice storm.

I posted many snow maps pumping up the potential for tomorrow.     Maybe you can join the discussion and not pick personal battles again?   Thanks Chris.

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4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I really think someone should be the designated downplayer of any potential tomorrow/Monday, any ideas?

I’m probably going to limit their connection speed so they can’t post anything but short snippets of text.

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

I’m probably going to limit their connection speed so they can’t post anything but short snippets of text.

Thanks Fred.

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1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Funny we go from rooting for things to shift north to rooting for them to shift south. If that does happen there's still plenty of cold air to tap into. Whistler is still only 15F and Lytton is 11F. The Fraser Valley has warmed (albeit still in the 28~32F range with low dewpoints). The BC interior is still bitter cold with rising pressure readings again.

 

 

Was listening to 1130 and EC was convinced that the snow and cold were over for the lower mainland with the thaw starting before sunrise.

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4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

That's exactly what we need to track. A secondary low like that would be enough to significantly change the surface pressure orientation across Western Washington and keep frozen precipitation going much longer.

One thing is clear. There is an unusually large range of possibilities over the next 36 hours. We will likely be dealing with a large amount of precipitation that will falling while temperatures are between about 31 and 36 degrees. A 2-3 degree swing in either direction will make the difference between brief snow followed by rain, significant snow, or snow followed by sleet or ZR. Fascinating stuff.

Yes... like you said on facebook these transitions are notoriously messy.    

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am trying to understand it as well.    And now a little concerned about the potential for a major ice storm.

I posted many snow maps pumping up the potential for tomorrow.     Maybe you can join the discussion and not pick personal battles again?   Thanks Chris.

You need to lighten up, have some fun, take a joke etc etc..🤣

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I've had a feeling about this Sunday Monday storm for here.  I'm expecting to get hammered with heavy snow. 

Agreed... that area is almost always the last to scour out regardless of the situation.

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13 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I really think someone should be the designated downplayer of any potential tomorrow/Monday, any ideas?

I could remind y’all that it could always be worse...that should help. 😉

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I could remind y’all that it could always be worse...that should help. 😉

I am just glad you did not have a destructive ice storm down there.   I think Andrew had it worst of all in this round.

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Just now, Shawn344 said:

Are we talking like Hail Mary odds here to have this shift to another snow event instead of transition to rain or what? Sorry just trying to catch up lol p

Its not really a hail mary... its just a very complex situation between now and Monday afternoon.

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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

And, just as 2018-19 did, this winter yet again demonstrates the importance of the stratosphere and its teleconnective relationship with the tropics in modulating the (sub)seasonal pattern evolution.

As well as folly of declaring a winter fail just because we got through January without a snowstorm.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am just glad you did not have a destructive ice storm down there.   I think Andrew had it worst of all in this round.

I doubt we'll see ice storm.  Extremely rare.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I doubt we'll see ice storm.  Extremely rare.

I have bad memories of 2012 after the big snowstorm.    That was a mess.  

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Thanks Fred.

What, we have been doing this dance for over a decade now. Sure, you do post crowd pleasers and sometimes try to hype things up. You however seem to usually be the first person to latch onto any scenario that would mean the end of an event. Hell, earlier today was a perfect example of that. You then hide behind the “I’m just reporting the models” which just sounds weak.

Then there is the whole “I only listen to the Euro”. Great, good for you. I’m happy you’ve found a suite to be content with, but at times you argue with people over minutia or pull out hard to backup statements like “it handles the surface level features best”. Like, what exact features?

I know that you’re trying to be better and we all generally see it. You also have a reputation for being “that guy” when it has come to almost anything involving cold or snow in a local forecast. So much so that people I know in real life who only visit these forums on a seasonal basis will have something to say about that “Tim guy”.

I don’t know really what else to say at this point. Just maybe if anything be a bit more aware that it doesn’t look great that while everyone is enjoying a once in a decade event, you jump in with “the Euro says its all going to melt”. I get you’re a beloved figure and there are quite a few people who’ll praise you for being realistic and sharing maps, and they’re right. Just maybe read the room better.

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6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Was listening to 1130 and EC was convinced that the snow and cold were over for the lower mainland with the thaw starting before sunrise.

Yikes, good luck with that forecast. EC is notoriously conservative and weight forecasts heavily towards climate. They had today as a 36F high with rain/snow mix in Victoria when most models were showing the low passing through Oregon. The GEM isn't onboard with a quick warmup out there:

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.thumb.png.b1b037a0de8280312f681bf43ddc52e2.png

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I keep seeing people actually impressed that Ocean Shores got 12" of snow when it absolutely did not at all, they got maybe an inch or so and then ice storm.  Cliff Mass even acknowledged it in his newest blog. 

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8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I keep seeing people actually impressed that Ocean Shores got 12" of snow when it absolutely did not at all, they got maybe an inch or so and then ice storm.  Cliff Mass even acknowledged it in his newest blog. 

Yeah there are a bunch of bs snow totals. Some pics I see people say they have 12 inches and it looks more like 7. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yeah there are a bunch of bs snow totals. Some pics I see people say they have 12 inches and it looks more like 7. 

Mine was legit, unfortunately we lost about 3 to 4 inches due to melting today, temp got up to 40.

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11 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Yikes, good luck with that forecast. EC is notoriously conservative and weight forecasts heavily towards climate. They had today as a 36F high with rain/snow mix in Victoria when most models were showing the low passing through Oregon. The GEM isn't onboard with a quick warmup out there:

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.thumb.png.b1b037a0de8280312f681bf43ddc52e2.png

The placement of that low pressure... 👀

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48 minutes ago, Shawn344 said:

Are we talking like Hail Mary odds here to have this shift to another snow event instead of transition to rain or what? Sorry just trying to catch up lol p

It depends what you mean. The Hail Mary part would be the secondary low staying South of us and keeping us snow well into the day Monday creating another widespread big 6+ inch snowstorm. At this point I'd say has less than a 10-20% chance of happening South of Bellingham. But I don't think it's not at all a Hail Mary for areas North of Seattle to stay snow into the night Sunday and see 2-4" totals.

It's going to be a messy transition with a mixture of snow, rain, sleet and possibly freezing rain. Just a matter of degree how much of each falls where.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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17 minutes ago, iFred said:

I don’t know really what else to say at this point. Just maybe if anything be a bit more aware that it doesn’t look great that while everyone is enjoying a once in a decade event, you jump in with “the Euro says its all going to melt”. I get you’re a beloved figure and there are quite a few people who’ll praise you for being realistic and sharing maps, and they’re right. Just maybe read the room better.

Its all been said before.    

And I have not said anything about what the models show after Monday... there is no point to that  right now.   And I fully recognize the historic nature of this event and love seeing all the posts.   I truly enjoy this WAY more than just having snow here.  100%... without a question.   

Through Monday we still have lots of potential so its worth discussing.    I understand my history probably precludes me from being able to discuss the details of a transition out of cold without ruffling feathers.   That is my fault.    I am  reading the room as best I can.    Which probably still sucks! 

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9 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Your area would be absolutely buried with that. It's not even necessarily an outlier, it's about halfway between the GFS and ICON in placement.

Definitely a thread the needle situation, but it would be a perfect mix of outflow and moisture overhead 

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5 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

Can confirm ocean shores—our renters said it was less than 1 inch of snow then a solid sheet of ice on everything. Horrible mess, but definitely not much of a snow event.

My brother in law said the same thing.

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Just now, jcmcgaffey said:

Just amazing night crunching snow, people still out sledding, walking, talking, laughing, fire pits in the street. Some Christmas lights still up and heavy snow banks and caked yards, houses, and trees. And kids still going strong...

2A2C0538-352A-44A5-AD46-46F4D17A0C21.jpeg

The kids needed this more than anything!

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

The kids needed this more than anything!

No joke! The most exercise my oldest has had since school at home started.  It’s been a real struggle getting him out of the house these days but not today:)

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27 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yeah there are a bunch of bs snow totals. Some pics I see people say they have 12 inches and it looks more like 7. 

Overstating snow totals is one of the great, time-honored traditions of winter.

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1 hour ago, Geos said:

Ouch. I hope you don't end up like areas further south...

Not quite as bad as Silverton, but it’s pretty bad. Last night was super stressful. Looks like a hurricane came through. Our power has been out since midnight. We lost 2 mature fruit trees and there’s trees/branches down everywhere. 21 years in Portland and I’ve never seen it like this before. 
 

We’re rolling with it though. Our kerosene heater is killing it right now!!!

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7 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

No joke! The most exercise my oldest has had since school at home started.  It’s been a real struggle getting him out of the house these days but not today:)

Yep, out throwing snowballs, discussing triple-points, deformation bands, and convergence zones, full on discussion around the campfire.  I personally wish I was there too.

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