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3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Icon model resolution being 13km will not accurately capture impact of the gorge outflow.  Icon clearly shows a negatively tilted surface trough off the Oregon Coast.  The lower levels are going to be colder than it shows 

Not sure that model even understands what freezing rain is.

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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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1 minute ago, Andrew M said:

I'm in a somewhat similar boat. I don't think i'll get much of warm nose in the hills here, but i could be right on the dividing line between snow and sleet potentially for a good chunk of it at first. Or my elevation may end up playing a big role here too, time will tell.

No, you will be fine.  The West Hills always get those easterlies banking up against them.  What part of the West Hills are you??  I have literally seen it snowy on the east side on Cornell and then once I started going down towards Beaverton it was nothing.

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Here might start as mostly night time snow and afternoon rain through the weekend. High temps don't start to get close to freezing until Sun/Mon at least on GFS.

Wunderground wants to give me mid-40's and daytime showers Mon/Tue. lol But I'm confident that timeframe gives this area a little snow event.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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I noticed that Wunderground has bumped up Saturday, Sunday high temps by a couple degrees for PDX.  They running off the EURO or do they use a blend or just straight off NWS Portland info?  For OC it's clearly warmer Friday-Sunday. 

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I am also going with the idea that the next few days will be a near redux of Jan 1998 with a sprinkling of 1980 added for good taste.  Think ice south of west hills.  Extreme snow gradient from west hills out to Washougal Ridgefield line.  2-4” Portland downtown . 18-24” Washougal—Ridgefield 

3/4” ice Eugene. 
1.5” of ice valley floor Corvallis-Salem

2” ice in south Salem hills and east slopes of Coast range. 

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2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

I am also going with the idea that the next few days will be a near redux of Jan 1998 with a sprinkling of 1980 added for good taste.  Think ice south of west hills.  Extreme snow gradient from west hills out to Washougal Ridgefield line.  2-4” Portland downtown . 18-24” Washougal—Ridgefield 

3/4” ice Eugene. 
1.5” of ice valley floor Corvallis-Salem

2” ice in south Salem hills and east slopes of Coast range. 

Now that's bold!!!!

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3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

I am also going with the idea that the next few days will be a near redux of Jan 1998 with a sprinkling of 1980 added for good taste.  Think ice south of west hills.  Extreme snow gradient from west hills out to Washougal Ridgefield line.  2-4” Portland downtown . 18-24” Washougal—Ridgefield 

3/4” ice Eugene. 
1.5” of ice valley floor Corvallis-Salem

2” ice in south Salem hills and east slopes of Coast range. 

Man, 3/4" of ice would be crippling I'd think. 

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10 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know no one cares, but the mid/long range GFS is really active with insane amounts of mountain snow. Looks like 3 separate wet snow onshore flow events here next week, so I will be tracking those if we end up a little to far south this week. 

I'd like to know how much of this is on a regional basis, extending to the southern Cascades too. 

This would be my first La Nina to not at least feature a couple decent storms here if none happened.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Gfs is more south

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z GFS is definitely south for tomorrow into Friday morning... and the Friday night system looks very moist with a favorable low position.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

I am also going with the idea that the next few days will be a near redux of Jan 1998 with a sprinkling of 1980 added for good taste.  Think ice south of west hills.  Extreme snow gradient from west hills out to Washougal Ridgefield line.  2-4” Portland downtown . 18-24” Washougal—Ridgefield 

3/4” ice Eugene. 
1.5” of ice valley floor Corvallis-Salem

2” ice in south Salem hills and east slopes of Coast range. 

Folks better be off the roads if that came to fruition. 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Folks better be off the roads if that came to fruition. 

Unlike 1979, pavements won’t be frozen solid.  The roads in Eugene were surprisingly sane during our Dec 2016 ice storm except in the hills on north slopes

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GFS still going with a weak low further south for Thursday. Shows the snowline pretty far south into the Willamette valley. 
 

The GFS and Euro still look pretty different for that first system. Big differences for me in Tigard for sure. 

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Total snow through Friday at 4 p.m. per the 12Z GFS... and the big kahuna is moving in at that time.   

In general this is a slight southward shift from the 00Z run and less precip overall.

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3174400.png

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Friday at 4 p.m. per the 12Z GFS... and the big kahuna is moving in at that time.   

In general this is a slight southward shift from the 00Z run and less precip overall.

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3174400.png

GFS has more dry wind pushing south from the north than the euro maybe?

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And then total snow through Sunday morning... again a slight southward shift and a little less precip overall compared to the 00Z run.     But still great for most people! 

 

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3304000.png

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21 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Here might start as mostly night time snow and afternoon rain through the weekend. High temps don't start to get close to freezing until Sun/Mon at least on GFS.

Wunderground wants to give me mid-40's and daytime showers Mon/Tue. lol But I'm confident that timeframe gives this area a little snow event.

Hopefully you guys do! 

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4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

GFS still going with a weak low further south for Thursday. Shows the snowline pretty far south into the Willamette valley. 
 

The GFS and Euro still look pretty different for that first system. Big differences for me in Tigard for sure. 

at some point one of these models has to blink, right?

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

And then total snow through Sunday morning... again a slight southward shift and a little less precip overall.  But still great for most people! 

 

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3304000.png

Are we torching and in the 40’s by Sunday? 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And then total snow through Sunday morning... again a slight southward shift and a little less precip overall compared to the 00Z run.     But still great for most people! 

 

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3304000.png

The 12z GFS PARALLEL also looking good for the 2nd system.

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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10 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

here you go

image.png.83e64c9a932426ff4f1eab1ad5cb7d3b.png

All of a sudden I'm craving Pepto Bismol 🤪

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The gfs is on its own right now it looks. 

I was thinking the Euro was. All models stay cold except the Euro. Even the 00z EPS stayed cold for Saturday

06z EPS still had some cold members for Saturday. We'll see!

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
Jeez. GFS shows PDX metro gets 20-25" of snow, then .75 to over 1" of freezing rain.

That's the 2004 transition event only on a much bigger scale. I-84 through gorge may be shut down for a week.

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Can we lock in the 12z GFS? Honestly looks like no one except Eugene could be upset about it. 1 foot of snow from Salem to Vancouver BC. Or honestly there's a lot of models I would take right now.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I was thinking the Euro was. All models stay cold except the Euro. Even the 00z EPS stayed cold for Saturday

06z EPS still had some cold members for Saturday. We'll see!

Just for clarification... the EPS has been trending a little warmer each run for both Saturday and Sunday and the 06Z mean shows temps above freezing even in Seattle both days.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for clarification... the EPS has been trending a little warmer each run for both Saturday and Sunday and the 06Z mean shows temps above freezing even in Seattle both days.   

When does the Snowpocabliz hit my house?

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10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
Jeez. GFS shows PDX metro gets 20-25" of snow, then .75 to over 1" of freezing rain.

That didn't even happen in '50(well, almost).  Doubt that will happen to this extent but either the GFS of the EURO will get bragging rights for something for us here, good or bad.  The GFS got it right in '17.  Predicted the big bust for PDX.  Now its for the gold. 

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A little bit of precipitation now showing up on the radar up here. Most models (including finally the 12z GFS) now show 0.5-1" falling in the next 24 hours around Skagit County. Would really love to see that come to fruition.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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So hopeful for Western OR and WA! Sitting here in Spokane with beautiful sunny skies and 18 degrees. From the way things look It looks like Spokane might get maybe an inch or two out of this entire event. Going to be cold though! I hope you guys get hammered! ❤️😊🙏

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The good thing is so many models to cherry pick!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Gonna wait to see what the Euro says but tomorrow’s system will be less of an impact for Seattle area maybe even Tacoma if the GFS is correct.
 

Big player still weekend system. But I am even more weary of a rug pull.

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5 minutes ago, JBolin said:

When does the Snowpocabliz hit my house?

Are you in Seattle?

Even the snowy 06Z ECMWF only shows about 1/2 an inch of snow in the Seattle area through tomorrow evening.   The real fun begins early Friday morning and goes through Saturday morning.  

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  • Meteorologist

RGEM 12z looks good with expanding the precip shield further north with the first low and keeping things cold enough for the second low once it arrives.

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Totals through Saturday night, per 12z ICON.

icon-all-washington-total_snow_10to1-3260800.png

Are you just trolling the Portland people with this map?   Stop presenting model data that does not show 2 feet for Portland!   

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