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Part II: February 2021 PacNW


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I'm not sure if this was discussed on here already, but Jaya seems to think the issue with the poor modeling is that they are initializing incorrectly as they start their runs with little to no snow on the ground, which can completely throw off the temperature forecast.

If the model thinks there is 3 inches on the ground for a region, but there is actually 8-12 inches over a wide area, that is going to affect the temperatures and keep things cool a lot longer than it would if there were only 3 inches. 

So I think the models are going to be a bit useless today and tomorrow and we are just going to be flying blind with radar and satellite.

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2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I'm not sure if this was discussed on here already, but Jaya seems to think the issue with the poor modeling is that they are initializing correctly as they start their runs with little to now snow on the ground, which can completely throw off the temperature forecast.

If the model thinks there is 3 inches on the ground for a region, but there is actually 8-12 inches over a wide area, that is going to affect the temperatures and keep things cool a lot longer than it would if there were only 3 inches. 

So I think the models are going to be a bit useless today and tomorrow and we are just going to be flying blind with radar and satellite.

Definitely flying sort of blind the next 2 days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Saw a couple tweets over the last 30 mins of sleet/ZR on the Kitsap peninsula, not buying it though.

Still snowing I'm Bremerton but temp has popped just above freezing in Bremerton just above the base at 128ft elevation. Very small flakes not as big as earlier. 32.9°

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1 minute ago, yellowstone said:

Snowing hard with big flakes in south Green Lake. 31.6 degrees with no sign of a mix yet. Have picked up an inch or so this morning already. 

This feels like more snow than the highest snow depth we had in 2019 at any one point.

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I am currently going through a break in precip and my temp has not budged one tenth of a degree. Sitting at 31:4.  I was convinced the temp was going to jump when the precip took a break because I have a very light SW breeze around 2-3 mph. Radar looks to pick back up soon though. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS updating now... here is total snow through tomorrow afternoon.    It basically showing freezing rain.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3433600 (2).png

gfs-deterministic-washington-frzr_total-3433600.png

I've gotten more than that from this latest round. 11.7" total here now! 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Terrifying watching the temperature slowly rise. 30.3 here light snow.

yeah we've popped up to 29 after being at 27 a couple of hours ago and I want to make it stop!

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro total snow through 6PM. It shows the changeover happening around 5PM with hardly any freezing rain.

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_10to1-3354400.png

That is good news.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro total snow from now through 10PM. It shows the changeover happening around 5PM with hardly any freezing rain.

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-snow_12hr-3368800.png

I'm a bit surprised why an advisory wasn't issued for bremerton/Kitsap area. We already have an inch. Yeah temp is just above freezing at my place but it is soooo snowing pretty decently

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Interestingly... the 12Z ECMWF shows the east wind going strong until about 7 a.m. tomorrow.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Got a feeling that changeover is going to be later here. 29* here.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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53 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I'm not sure if this was discussed on here already, but Jaya seems to think the issue with the poor modeling is that they are initializing incorrectly as they start their runs with little to no snow on the ground, which can completely throw off the temperature forecast.

If the model thinks there is 3 inches on the ground for a region, but there is actually 8-12 inches over a wide area, that is going to affect the temperatures and keep things cool a lot longer than it would if there were only 3 inches. 

So I think the models are going to be a bit useless today and tomorrow and we are just going to be flying blind with radar and satellite.

Snow on the ground can affect temperature, but it won't be a factor for whether precip is snow/freezing rain.

A forum for the end of the world.

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DP is 29.0

Its a snow globe out there!! 
Will probably be losing internet and TV signal soon. Will have to go out with my light changing pole again and beat the internet dish. The TV dish is way too high up on the roof to get to however. 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is always the worst part. F.CK!!!

It’s been a good run...but the slush melt is going to be an absolute nightmare. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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I think that areas north of I-90 will wind up being the big winners today. That east wind will hopefully abate much of the projected changeover from making it much further north. Though I could be wrong. Seattle will probably start changing over in the next couple of hours in places. 

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