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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Gonna wait to see what the Euro says but tomorrow’s system will be less of an impact for Seattle area maybe even Tacoma if the GFS is correct.
 

Big player still weekend system. But I am even more weary of a rug pull.

Things leaning towards the gfs would be better overall for everyone. We would still cash in friday in a more favorable way if things trend more south. Crazy we still have such massive disagreement on a snow event that’s supposed to happen TOMORROW. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Got down to 28 this morning. 2nd low in the 20s this winter...31 currently. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Again referring back to the most recent ECMWF run (06Z) through Saturday afternoon for those who missed it earlier.    That run showed about an inch of snow in Seattle through midnight tomorrow night and then about 8 inches of snow for the Seattle area from early Friday morning through Saturday morning and its snowing pretty much non-stop in that period.   That run also showed a quick warm up on Saturday with the low up around Vancouver Island and a fairly strong south wind through the entire Sound.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3260800 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Things leaning towards the gfs would be better overall for everyone. We would still cash in friday in a more favorable way if things trend more south. Crazy we still have such massive disagreement on a snow event that’s supposed to happen TOMORROW. 

I'll take truth over fact any day. 

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Looks like a bit of snow over Comox this morning, could be some flurries moving south today. Currently 30F here with very light N winds, yet EC has issued an Arctic Outflow warning for Victoria and Vancouver. Normally they reserve those warnings for the coastal inlets so they must be anticipating a serious pulse of cold air tonight. They're predicting 5F ~ -13F windchills overnight.

 

202102100824.jpg

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Again referring back to the most recent ECMWF run (06Z) through Saturday afternoon for those who missed it earlier.    That run showed about an inch of snow in Seattle through midnight tomorrow night and then about 8 inches of snow for the Seattle area from early Friday morning through Saturday morning and its snowing pretty much non-stop in that period.   That run also showed a quick warm up on Saturday with the low up around Vancouver Island and a fairly strong south wind through the entire Sound.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3260800 (2).png

Euro usually isn’t wrong...but the 12z runs seem to be making it look like an even bigger outlier than last night. Just crazy the disagreement on the models. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro usually isn’t wrong...but the 12z runs seem to be making it look like an even bigger outlier than last night. Just crazy the disagreement on the models. 

Yeah... its complete model chaos right now.    But in these situations the best bet is usually on the ECMWF for surface details.   If the 12Z ECMWF looks like the 06Z run then its pretty compelling evidence that the southern solutions are just going to be wrong.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Again referring back to the most recent ECMWF run (06Z) through Saturday afternoon for those who missed it earlier.    That run showed about an inch of snow in Seattle through midnight tomorrow night and then about 8 inches of snow for the Seattle area from early Friday morning through Saturday morning and its snowing pretty much non-stop in that period.   That run also showed a quick warm up on Saturday with the low up around Vancouver Island and a fairly strong south wind through the entire Sound.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3260800 (2).png

What are you thinking for up here? I’m assuming far less than what is shown, it seems like some models pick up on east winds effect better than others? It’s been absolutely beautiful up here, a few more inches and we’re set!

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its complete model chaos right now.    But in these situations the best bet is usually on the ECMWF for surface details.   If the 12Z ECMWF looks like the 06Z run then its pretty compelling evidence that the southern solutions are just going to be wrong.

I agree based on my experience with the ECMWF and it has the highest resolution out of the global models.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its complete model chaos right now.    But in these situations the best bet is usually on the ECMWF for surface details.   If the 12Z ECMWF looks like the 06Z run then its pretty compelling evidence that the southern solutions are just going to be wrong.

12z euro will be telling. Idk I just get the feeling the euro comes in further south. Wouldn’t be the first or second time I believe it’s caved over the last week...just not at this range. Either way we get a pretty good snow event in western WA...lasts about 48 hours either way. Either it starts Thursday or Friday...I’d prefer the latter though as it would be better for all and probably last a bit longer. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its complete model chaos right now.    But in these situations the best bet is usually on the ECMWF for surface details.   If the 12Z ECMWF looks like the 06Z run then its pretty compelling evidence that the southern solutions are just going to be wrong.

12z Euro is big. Both to see if it sticks with a more Northern solution for tomorrow and Friday night. Right now it's a bit of an outlier for both . . . But it's also the King.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z Euro is big. Both to see if it sticks with a more Northern solution for tomorrow and Friday night. Right now it's a bit of an outlier for both . . . But it's also the King.

Yeah... its could definitely cave on the 12Z run.    It will be very interesting.

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Went from 29 to 9 inches. Sad day😧😧

What's wrong with us? We've had bupkis all winter, and then we go and get greedy when our projections show us only getting a foot instead of the two feet we were counting on!

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10 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

What are you thinking for up here? I’m assuming far less than what is shown, it seems like some models pick up on east winds effect better than others? It’s been absolutely beautiful up here, a few more inches and we’re set!

I am sure we will get plenty of snow and it will be blowing around... but it will probably be more reasonable than in 2019.

And yes... its been gorgeous up here this week so far!    Much better than endless drizzle.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I see a snow shower on the western horizon! Stay tuned for more updates!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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25 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Fraser outflow gradient is down to -16mb. When I went to bed around midnight, it was sitting around -11mb.

Definitely starting to increase more.

What is a good number for an  actual arctic front coming south? From past events?

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May be an image of lightning, sky and text

May be an image of map and text that says 'GFS 0.25 Init 2z Feb 2021 Total Snow (10:1 Ratio) (Inches) Hour. 87 Valid: 03z Sun 14Feb 2021 21.2 21.3 22.3 22.7 20.4 21.0 15.3 14.1 WEATHABELL 0.0 rights eserved License Max: 37.8'

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Feels good to still be at below freezing with a cloud deck at 9am! Currently 30 at work here in Kirkland and about the same at home. The cold is definitely here. 

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2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

UKMET 12z looks to have a weaker low and less moisture pushing north.

Another run for a southern trend. Good sign.

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Another run for a southern trend. Good sign.

The only reason I’m rooting for the southern trend is so we can lock the cold in place longer. Nothing more, nothing less. 
 

When it comes to snow everyone is all about IMBY.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

72 hour snowfall for the UKMET. Another great run for everybody. Snow rapidly spreading northward on Saturday morning with the 0c 850mb temps extending down the Willamette Valley.

 

12zukmet0210.thumb.png.7f0fdea391fe420c4999299125cd44be.png

 

 

UKMET seems to really like drying out the EPSL from that east wind much more than other models show.

I get about an inch or so on that, which I guess at this point I'll take it and run with it.

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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