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Part II: February 2021 PacNW


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Ineresting...it appears the low must have ended up just south of Seattle.  North wind in the city and south just south of there.

Here the wind is absolutely dead and it's a chilly 40 degrees after a high of 42.  The cold air is really putting up a fight.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Obviously the missing piece of the puzzle is January (except 2016-17).  We need to get out Januaries back.  If Dec and Feb can both still deliver why not January?

January and February have been much drier in a good portion of CA during the last decade, with a few exceptions, of course. 2016-17 and 2018-19 have been the best two winters in CA since 2010-11. We have had some really abysmal seasons during this stretch, and this must have something to do with why January hasn't delivered as much in the PNW in recent years.

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

It's weird because it still feels like climate change is eating away at our winters but the events that we are seeing are getting more dramatic overall, at least relative to the past few decades. Maximum performance relative to the more limited opportunities (at least in the case of the past few winters, not 16-17 so much).

I was thinking the same thing. The last five years I've had very few minor snow events, but quite a few big ones.

It could be coincidental, but it's also plausible that climate change is making smaller borderline events less frequent, while favoring bigger dumps of snow along arctic boundaries that have trouble pushing very far South and get hung up over the Pacific Northwest.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ineresting...it appears the low must have ended up just south of Seattle.  North wind in the city and south just south of there.

Here the wind is absolutely dead and it's a chilly 40 degrees after a high of 42.  The cold air is really putting up a fight.

We had a brief transition to wet snow this afternoon so it certainly tracked south of here. Otherwise it's mostly been raining with a high of 37.5F.

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6 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

 

Yeah...I was noticing the PV might hurt our chances to get really cold again later in the month.  On the other hand the EPS is going for -PNA and -NAO so there might be a chance to break the PV up again.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

I can just about guarantee anyone from Kalama south to Salem will remember this storm (these storms) for some time.  You either got buried in snow, encased in ice, or in some places both.  This is the kind of snow that makes next week's 3" seem pretty minimal, whereas any other time it would be impressive.

Funny how norms quickly get adjusted, isn’t it? Same thing happened here. 8" on Saturday, 2" on Sunday, the latter felt like “meh, it’s snowing again.”

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I was thinking the same thing. The last five years I've had very few minor snow events, but quite a few big ones.

It could be coincidental, but it's also plausible that climate change is making smaller borderline events less frequent, while favoring bigger dumps of snow along arctic boundaries that have trouble pushing very far South and get hung up over the Pacific Northwest.

Climates are always changing.

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5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Climates are always changing.

That's the dirty little secret most people aren't even aware of.  The changes over the past century aren't even a blip compared to what has happened in the past.  It was warming after the little ice age even before burning of fossil fuels was of any significance.  The warming we have seen over the past century could easily be a continuation of that.  For all we know it might be ending now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's the dirty little secret most people aren't even aware of.  The changes over the past century aren't even a blip compared to what has happened in the past.  It was warming after the little ice age even before burning of fossil fuels was of any significance.  The warming we have seen over the past century could easily be a continuation of that.  For all we know it might be ending now.

Yep.  Pretty pompous to think we are affecting it more than we are.

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So what started as a quick drive around to get my cranky 2yr old to take a nap since she was fighting it so much turned into a drive to Lake Cavanaugh and it did not disappoint. I had only been there once as a kid and it’s not too far from my place, about 35 minutes or so. Anyway it was snowing up there! I checked my altimeter and it’s just about 1,000ft. If anyone is looking to relocate and wants quiet (in the winter anyway) and snow this is your place!! I love that area!! Side note, I drove past the place near Big Lake we had looked at before buying our current place and they had hardly any snow! Another fun part of the drive was driving in reverse for a half mile since the north shore drive of Lake Cavanaugh is one lane and was blocked by an abandoned stuck but still running car, I think the person went to the house down the way to get help but I wasn’t going to wait around so we backed up a snowy road a half mile until I was able to find a spot to turn around! Anyway here are some pics from the drive. Zero traffic up there, only car on the road was the one that was stuck!  Also there was no power up there due to this downed tree before you get to the lake. 

6B74797A-6B08-4007-8556-5C86962889C5.jpeg

14CC3EB8-DE22-4705-B131-1DA5BB637D1A.jpeg

0C9299A0-105D-427F-B25B-05E511A7A375.jpeg

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Ended up with a high of 39F and 0.69" in rain bucket. Snow is melting quite quickly though. Only have about 3" left down from 7" yesterday. I imagine most of it will be gone some time tomorrow.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just checked and noticed Bellingham never dropped into the teens with the outflow.  

Surprising.  I know it got close though.  If there had ben snow cover I'm sure they would have.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Ended up with a high of 39F and 0.69" in rain bucket. Snow is melting quite quickly though. Only have about 3" left down from 7" yesterday. I imagine most of it will be gone some time tomorrow.

It sucks how quickly snow melts until it gets a chance to refreeze after the melting process begins.  That's why it's such a big deal the models took our freezing low temps away this week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Jesus I had never looked at the Bellingham Dailey reports from January 1950. UMMM WOW!! on the 13th it was 2 degrees with 60mph outflow.  I knew that it was extremely cold but that was a beast for sure. December 1990 was mid teens and over 60 mph. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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High today was 39 after a low of 33.  Currently 36 with fog and very light drizzle.  It feels colder out there today than it did two days ago when it was 25 in the afternoon.  

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It sucks how quickly snow melts until it gets a chance to refreeze after the melting process begins.  That's why it's such a big deal the models took our freezing low temps away this week.

Even at 48 years old it still is depressing to watch the melt. I would of rather had 4 inches of snow and a week of colder weather.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It sucks how quickly snow melts until it gets a chance to refreeze after the melting process begins.  That's why it's such a big deal the models took our freezing low temps away this week.

Yeah the sudden warm up to rain sucks. Still, after that event I’m giving the winter a B+ for our area assuming no more snow. With a cold and clear snap after the snow, I would have given it a A-.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Even at 48 years old it still is depressing to watch the melt. I would of rather had 4 inches of snow and a week of colder weather.

Believe me it never goes away.

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1.16” of rain/snow melt today. Still a few inches of snow on the ground but lots of it melted today. At this rate it should mostly be gone by tomorrow or Wednesday...which is fine with me. Once the snow starts melting I’d rather it melt quick because it doesn’t look very pretty once the process starts. Made it up to 43...warmest day in 9 days. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-22

+85s-8

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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Still have massive heaps of snow on the sides of the roads and our parking lot...those will take some time to go away. Planning on going to orcas island sometime later this month as they’ve probably gotten lots of snow over the past few days up on Mt.Constitution and should get some more coming up.

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-22

+85s-8

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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6 minutes ago, Acer said:

Believe me it never goes away.

It does suck...just in my opinion though I’d rather it melt quick once it starts because it just becomes messy slush and it’s not very pretty at that point. Only time I’d rather it not melt and stick around is if there’s more coming. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-22

+85s-8

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

So our possible next cold period that was hinted at by the models is history now...What a shame. Onto winter season 2021/22! 

It’s already been an epic one. I’d be happy with or without more snow after how this winter turned out. Had some good wind, rain and snow events pretty much all you can hope for. Wouldn’t mind getting some more later this month or early March...but if not I’ll be looking forward to some springlike weather soon. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-22

+85s-8

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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The airmass in North America right now is absolutely frigid, no doubt about it. Imagine if the blocking pattern had been a bit more favorable and the bulk of this airmass ended up west of the Rockies... fun to fantasize about.

Alternatively with a less favorable blocking pattern it would have all slid east a la January 1985... but that's no fun to think about.

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10 minutes ago, Acer said:

It seems like now the consensus is we can only get an arctic airmass in here if the PV is pummeled into submission by a SSW event.  Is that true?  Most every winter there are near misses of arctic air for us and sometimes there are hits, that seems to infer that there has been a lot of SSW activity we weren't aware of and that they happen quite often.  Does the PV ever breakup for reasons other than a SSW event?

We need Phil! 

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50 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just checked and noticed Bellingham never dropped into the teens with the outflow.  

This one was all about wet bulb cooling as, just as with 1998, moisture was falling in the “coldest” areas almost immediately after the cold outflow began.  Precip then fell for almost it’s entirety down here.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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37 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Even at 48 years old it still is depressing to watch the melt. I would of rather had 4 inches of snow and a week of colder weather.

The onset is a bit depressing for me but once it’s slush it’s no longer fun and I cheer its disappearance. A quick melt is far better than the month or two of lingering piles and patches of increasingly drab, dirty snow that cold-winter climates see throughout late winter and early spring. Been there, done that, no thank you.

Team Rain always wins in the end in this climate. Might as well accept it.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The onset is a bit depressing for me but once it’s slush it’s no longer fun and I cheer its disappearance. A quick melt is far better than the month or two of lingering piles and patches of increasingly drab, dirty snow that cold-winter climates see throughout late winter and early spring. Been there, done that, no thank you.

Team Rain always wins in the end in this climate. Might as well accept it.

Yeah I agree once it’s turned into a big slushy mess I’d rather it just be gone. February 2019 was nice because it never really turned super slushy...kept re-freezing and stuck around for awhile. So I was happy it was still on the ground the whole month. By this morning though it was just a slushy sloppy mess. I got 110% enjoyment of it while it was here...went sledding snowboarding all day every day this weekend. Ready for it to melt off at this point. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-22

+85s-8

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So our possible next cold period that was hinted at by the models is history now...What a shame. Onto winter season 2021/22! 

Not necessarily if you dig a bit deeper in the thread, he seems to think the PNW will remain “cold” — but “cold” in late Feb. could just means being in 40s. SEA’s normal average is now 50.

 

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I actually have more snow left on the ground than I did on this day 2yrs ago. (Top 2/15/19 bottom was today) Difference is that I did not lose any more in 2019 and then started building again later on in the month. Probably won’t happen this time around. 

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C9A34CAB-30FB-44C4-A74C-5282A8C2C037.jpeg

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I agree once it’s turned into a big slushy mess I’d rather it just be gone. February 2019 was nice because it never really turned super slushy...kept re-freezing and stuck around for awhile. So I was happy it was still on the ground the whole month. By this morning though it was just a slushy sloppy mess. I got 110% enjoyment of it while it was here...went sledding snowboarding all day every day this weekend. Ready for it to melt off at this point. 

Certainly wish there was more cold air to work with to keep the snow around. The melting is disappointing but it is what it is. 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Not necessarily if you dig a bit deeper in the thread, he seems to think the PNW will remain “cold” — but “cold” in late Feb. could just means being in 40s. SEA’s normal average is now 50.

 

40’s is no fun...highs in 20’s like late February 2011 or 2018 is much preferred! Let get pummeled one more time!! 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Certainly wish there was more cold air to work with to keep the snow around. The melting is disappointing but it is what it is. 

Definitely would have been nice to have some cold air to keep it intact longer...but now that it’s mostly gone and very slushy I’d rather it be gone. Going to take awhile for my big snow piles to melt though! 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-22

+85s-8

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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I’m going to live in weather weenie fantasy land and call the period coming up as the best late February blast we have ever had!! Who’s with me?? I want MORE! Sorry I am probably irritating the pro mets by this post, I apologize. 

AE6688A9-08AD-49E7-9625-CCCE894DFD77.jpeg

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Looks like the cold air is making one last stand with the switch to north winds in the Seattle area again.   A lot of mid to upper 30s with some low 30s closer to the foothills.  

It's amazing how fast the snow at SEA got eaten up.  They only have two inches left.  Averaging it out I have more than that left here in spite of having less snowfall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the cold air is making one last stand with the switch to north winds in the Seattle area again.   A lot of mid to upper 30s with some low 30s closer to the foothills.  

It's amazing how fast the snow at SEA got eaten up.  They only have two inches left.  Averaging it out I have more than that left here in spite of having less snowfall.

I saw on King5 news this morning that SEA snowfall in the 50s & 60s averaged 17 inches and since 2004 it only averaged a measly 5 inches?

I was not sure how accurate that is.

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Jesus I had never looked at the Bellingham Dailey reports from January 1950. UMMM WOW!! on the 13th it was 2 degrees with 60mph outflow.  I knew that it was extremely cold but that was a beast for sure. December 1990 was mid teens and over 60 mph. 

Yeah.  The monthly average at Clearbrook was an insane 17 degrees that month.  That stacks up well with a lot of fairly cold places east of the Rockies for coldest monthly average.  In this case it was incredible persistence of cold that produced the very low average.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the cold air is making one last stand with the switch to north winds in the Seattle area again.   A lot of mid to upper 30s with some low 30s closer to the foothills.  

It's amazing how fast the snow at SEA got eaten up.  They only have two inches left.  Averaging it out I have more than that left here in spite of having less snowfall.

I would love our snow to melt.  Its a frickin mess now.    There is nothing good about it at this point.  

20210215_154318.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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52 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We need Phil! 

It’s not a prerequisite. There are a number of cases with a strong+displaced TPV and NPAC blocking that have delivered out there in Niña/+QBO setups.

But yeah, SSWE/weak strat vortex certainly increases the odds for significant cold/snow in PNW region, all else being equal, since the westerlies responsible for keeping cold east of the Rockies are often disrupted during/after the SSWE process. This much should be evident after the evolution of 2018/19 and this winter, compared to years like 2019/20.

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Just now, SnowChild said:

I saw on King5 news this morning that SEA snowfall in the 50s & 60s averaged 17 inches and since 2004 it only averaged a measly 5 inches?

I was not sure how accurate that is.

It's true.  In the 1880s and 1890s the average was 25 inches per winter in Seattle (Central Puget Sound area).  The good news is we seem to have turned the corner after bottoming out earlier this century.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would love our snow to melt.  Its a frickin mess now.    There is nothing good about it at this point.  

20210215_154318.jpg

It is nasty when it's in melt mode.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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