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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

72 hour snowfall for the UKMET. Another great run for everybody. Snow rapidly spreadinng northward on Saturday morning with the 0c 850mb temps extending down the Willamette Valley.

 

12zukmet0210.thumb.png.7f0fdea391fe420c4999299125cd44be.png

 

 

There is clear disagreement among where the highest totals in Victoria will occur. Ukmet and euro have them in Sidney/Saanich peninsula and the gfs and gem would have them in esquimalt/sooke.  What do you think is most likely @ShawniganLake/@vancouverislandsouth

 

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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Euro will cave towards gfs. Like I thought couple days ago there is now way we have this happen again like in 19. It's the southerners turn.  

Even if it caves to the gfs we will likely still have a massive snowstorm Friday/Saturday. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

The only reason I’m rooting for the southern trend is so we can lock the cold in place longer. Nothing more, nothing less. 
 

When it comes to snow everyone is all about IMBY.

D**n right, we're all f**** selfish, especially that "Tim" guy over there in the "Apls"

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Seems like today could be pretty chilly. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The only reason I’m rooting for the southern trend is so we can lock the cold in place longer. Nothing more, nothing less. 
 

When it comes to snow everyone is all about IMBY.

Southern trend would probably make the snow this weekend less marginal and stick around longer getting more cold air in place. Literally is the better option for multiple reasons lol. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Even if it caves to the gfs we will likely still have a massive snowstorm Friday/Saturday. 

Hopefully.  It could follow the trend of the first low and actually it is some. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just realized there is a decent chance SLE ends up with a colder February mean temp than January for the 4th year in a row...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Poor Tim gets nothing on the UKMET. 

 

sn10_acc.us_nw (32).png

He’s more likely than not ok with it. But at the same time probably just rolling his eyes because it’s the UKMET 😂 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hopefully.  It could follow the trend of the first low and actually it is some. 

Pretty much all the models have that low coming in farther north than the first either way. Pretty good bet that’ll be further north than the system tomorrow.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Wow...seeing a -15 in Great Falls right now. 

How is it in Bozeman, @Kayla?

I noticed a -35 at Cut Bank last night around 2-3am.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Assuming the southern solutions win out for tomorrow's system and the Euro is out to lunch on it, I still wouldn't be surprised to see snow further north than what is modeled. Seems like a pretty common thing to have the northern precip shield extend further north. 

Might not mean much accumulation wise depending on the final strength of the low, but still... More Puget Sound people might at least see flakes flying than what it seems on those solutions.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Assuming the southern solutions win out for tomorrow's system and the Euro is out to lunch on it, I still wouldn't be surprised to see snow further north than what is modeled. Seems like a pretty common thing to have the northern precip shield extend further north. 

Might not mean much accumulation wise depending on the final strength of the low, but still... More Puget Sound people might at least see flakes flying than what it seems on those solutions.

Pretty good chance that the second low could bomb out, IMO.

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5 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Would the fri/sat system be during the day or more very late night into sat morning? I know timing changes but at this point..

According to latest GFS first signs of snowfall around the sound would be Friday evening and falling thru most of the day on Saturday. 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just realized there is a decent chance SLE ends up with a colder February mean temp than January for the 4th year in a row...

Pretty clear that February > January for us. Arguably December, too.

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Certainly some interesting changes this morning on the handling of the second low.  Dying to see where the ECMWF goes.

As an aside...the parallel GFS is either going to look like a genius or be ready for the ash heap after this run.  It keeps both lows very south and gives SEA very little snow, but then a third low makes landfall in the sweet spot early next week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Nice update for the morning AFD. Mentions possibility of snow showers today, mainly north, and things possibly staying colder due to the more suppressed nature of the trends which might lead to more snowfall with the system on Sunday.

Can't say I'm optimistic about Sunday's chances given the fairly dramatic warming shown for Saturday on some models but we shall see.

image.png.eb07ae1e74c7839e1b70b2d9c8ebf706.png

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Nice update for the morning AFD. Mentions possibility of snow showers today, mainly north, and things possibly staying colder due to the more suppressed nature of the trends which might lead to more snowfall with the system on Sunday.

Can't say I'm optimistic about Sunday's chances given the fairly dramatic warming shown for Saturday on some models but we shall see.

image.png.eb07ae1e74c7839e1b70b2d9c8ebf706.png

They aren’t counting out a southern trend so neither should we. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Nice update for the morning AFD. Mentions possibility of snow showers today, mainly north, and things possibly staying colder due to the more suppressed nature of the trends which might lead to more snowfall with the system on Sunday.

Can't say I'm optimistic about Sunday's chances given the fairly dramatic warming shown for Saturday on some models but we shall see.

image.png.eb07ae1e74c7839e1b70b2d9c8ebf706.png

Yikes. I'd hate to miss out on the first two systems. 

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  • Meteorologist

Let’s hope the ECMWF shifts south a bit. Even if it does, it’s not a cave by any means as the ECMWF has lead the way with the overall pattern.

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This is real interesting. Sharp pressure rises now occurring over the Columbia Basin. FAR more than modeled. This would signal arctic air progressing southward. This is Moses Lake pressure reading.
No photo description available.
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Prediction: Today’s NWS forecasted high of 35˚F for Bellingham will bust. Don’t see how it can get warmer than about 30˚F myself (and that’s being optimistic about warming). Yesterday was supposed to be 40/27 and it ended up being 35/20.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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51 minutes ago, wxmet said:

I agree based on my experience with the ECMWF and it has the highest resolution out of the global models.

GRAF is 3-4x higher average resolution than the GFS and ECMWF.

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Beautiful pre-Snowmageddon day in Seattle...

 

sea210.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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29 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Poor Tim gets nothing on the UKMET. 

 

sn10_acc.us_nw (32).png

It seems to overdo the screw hole from the east winds.  The ECMWF handles that detail better.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Cloud said:

He’s more likely than not ok with it. But at the same time probably just rolling his eyes because it’s the UKMET 😂 

UKMET is actually a respectable model. 

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Currently snowing lightly just outside of Anacortes. About 5 miles away.

20200210_wsdotsnow1.jpg.5c651675d282df0ef2a5743dd4e147af.jpg

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Currently snowing lightly just outside of Anacortes. About 5 miles away.

20200210_wsdotsnow1.jpg.5c651675d282df0ef2a5743dd4e147af.jpg

Nice!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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