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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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16 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Yes, way underrated!!!!  And has one of the greatest wrestlers ever to grapple with Nord the Barbarian at the Portland Sports Arena!!!

ROWDY!

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For PDX still not nearly as cold or low level cold as the GFS, BUT given current observations show the EURO isn't handling the 850s and cold surface temps in the Columbia Basin, I really think the EURO is missing the boat with when we change over to snow, and modeled temperatures. EURO has too much WAA for weak lows that dissipate just offshore. Won't happen.
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Seems like the euro really was being a bit too warm before. 00z run showed rain in PDX Friday with raging easterlies, seemed pretty suspect. Good to see it correcting a bit now.

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More colder air filtering in compared to the previous run. Should set the stage for the second low to hit the more northern areas.

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27 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Wait you’re saying they didn’t have more than 8” in 24 hours in December 1996?

I believe they had 8" or so on the morning of 12/29/1996. Just no official numbers from that period.

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Seattle getting into the action by Friday... here is the 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. period.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-3174400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

Looks like Euro is heading a little south

"How the turntables"
~ Michael Scott

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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12Z ECMWF definitely looking farther south with second system as well. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I believe they had 8" or so on the morning of 12/29/1996. Just no official numbers from that period.

Dec 29 has had a lot of snow events over the years! Two times I have even experienced blizzards on that day.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nice little stationary cell hanging out between Burlington and Anacortes this morning.

020vc04838.jpg.9d01b68f164a5c198d0efbcad671dd50.jpg

A little too stationary for my liking. Just about a mile away now...

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Lows this morning. 

PDX 31

SLE 26

EUG 29

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Definitely snowier by Saturday morning. These are using 10:1 ratiots, which Jaya thinks Kuchera might be more accurate for this situation.

2021-02-10 10_11_40-Window.png

Okay, I guess I could live with this.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF definitely looking farther south with second system as well. 

Probably a non event for anyone north of Tacoma.

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Not a bad EURO run at all. In fact quite good for PDX-north. How's ice accumulation looking? Need to know whether I should prepare for some downed branches.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Love not seeing rain reaching all the way up the Sound for Saturday afternoon.

2021-02-10 10_13_02-Window.png

Guess the bigger question now is what happens on Sunday as mentioned in the AFD. One can hope this goes well. 

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Way south for Saturday... and weaker with the low so less scouring.  

This is just the 12-hour period through about noon on Saturday.   Puyallup Jon... what did you do to anger the snow gods???

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_12hr-3242800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This run is way better than the 6z ECMWF.  Cold more solidly entrenched and still plenty of snow for Seattle.  Much better prospects for Portland.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Tomorrow's min/max at PDX is a low hanging fruit of 38. CAN THEY DO IT?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

On the plus side, it does seem to work its way north, eventually.

Yeah, it gets there. Really nice run. Keeps cold air in place longer and gives Portland through the border significant snowfall. 

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3 minutes ago, iFred said:

Probably a non event for anyone north of Tacoma.

You might not be following... but the 06Z was too far north.    A southward shift is much better for Tacoma and Seattle.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well, I need this to trend about 15 miles further south... lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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PDX NWS updated their WSW. Going with a combined 6-10 inches for the whole event.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
454 AM PST Wed Feb 10 2021

...PROLONG WINTER WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.A series for Pacific storms will bring heavy snow to the
Columbia River Gorge and the Cascades Thursday through Saturday.
During this time snow and freezing rain will impact much of the
low elevations of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington.


ORZ006-WAZ039-110000-
/O.EXT.KPQR.WS.A.0002.210211T2000Z-210213T1800Z/
Greater Portland Metro Area-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Vancouver, Battle Ground,
Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy
454 AM PST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches
  Thursday night and Friday, and another round of 3 to 5 Friday
  night and Saturday. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph near the
  Gorge.

* WHERE...In Washington, Greater Vancouver Area. In Oregon,
  Greater Portland Metro Area.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow-covered roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will gradually fall into the
  upper 20s Thursday night and result in any liquid water
  remaining on roads, sidewalks and patios freezing solidly.
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