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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Even the great and powerful Euro still struggles with that.  Of course it could be right that the mid levels will be on the warmer side but those southerlies will be riding the dome.

Some of the solutions going into Saturday remind me a little of December 21-22, 2008.

It might be meaningless for us west siders beyond Monday but another interesting thing I noticed browsing temperature output from the 12Z Euro is that the Central and Eastern Gorge stays frozen basically all of next week. Could be a historic and long lived period of snow and ice out there, and also tells me cold air could be waiting in the wings for the Portland area if the gradients turn favorable again at any point.

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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Even the great and powerful Euro still struggles with that.  Of course it could be right that the mid levels will be on the warmer side but those southerlies will be riding the dome.

Some of the solutions going into Saturday remind me a little of December 21-22, 2008.

I was chatting with IbrChris this morning about December 20-22, 2008 (He is very bullish on this event btw.). That would probably be an extreme best case scenario for this far south. That one featured an extreme cutoff with the snow. Silverton started as rain, turned to snow and got about 4" before going back to ZR on the 20th. Several miles south of town was just rain. Then on the 22nd, when that next low came through we got about 6-8", with the rain/snow line about 10 miles to the south. 

We will probably see a similar cutoff this time albeit likely further north. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It might be meaningless for us beyond Monday but another interesting thing I noticed browsing temperature output from the 12Z Euro is that the Central and Eastern Gorge stays frozen basically all of next week. Could be a historic and long lived period of snow and ice out there, and also tells me cold air could be waiting in the wings for the Portland area if the gradients turn favorable again at any point.

Could at least help PDX book a solidly chilly month. 

SLE is running a +0.6 departure through yesterday, so after today they should dip into negative territory. I haven't checked to see where PDX is at, but I would imagine they will be below average for the month at least by the end of the day tomorrow. Even some of these warmer runs don't show any legitimate torching, as a high in the upper 40s is still below average this time of year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, fubario said:

2 questions...should wsw by sea nws be imminent? oly still looking like one of the winners next 3 days (feel free to weenie me) ? tyia

Personally I think a Heavy rain warning for North Bend on Monday should be the top priority at this stage.

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could at least help PDX book a solidly chilly month. 

SLE is running a +0.6 departure through yesterday, so after today they should dip into negative territory. I haven't checked to see where PDX is at, but I would imagine they will be below average for the month at least by the end of the day tomorrow. Even some of these warmer runs don't show any legitimate torching, as a high in the upper 40s is still below average this time of year. 

Yes even after this period of possible cold and snow we look to remain in an active and chilly late winter Niña pattern. 🤗 

Hope it lasts through at least the first half of July. :wub:

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4 minutes ago, fubario said:

2 questions...should wsw by sea nws be imminent? oly still looking like one of the winners next 3 days (feel free to weenie me) ? tyia

I think you, in Olympia, will do great throughout the weekend. Heck, there's a realistic scenario where you get as much snow as anyone. 

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5 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

High-res WRF ain't bad imo. Mark likes it. Just takes a little interpretation on the user end.

Yeah, decent model but does have some quirks. I think the WRF snow maps seem to interpret all frozen precip as snow or something.

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1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

I think you, in Olympia, will do great throughout the weekend. Heck, there's a realistic scenario where you get as much snow as anyone. 

thank you. cheers!

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's what happened in January 2004. 

17 years ago now, but we did have about 24-36 hours for the low level cold to get established before the Pacific moisture overran it. If my memory serves me, a weak arctic front came through the Salem area on the Sunday afternoon, and the pacific moisture arrived Monday evening. 

This time the cold air only starts moving down the valley after precip has started.  So it's more "undercutting" than "overrunning".  I don't have a good sense of how that will turn out.  We won't have radiational cooling to help us out.  Although the effect is smaller than evaporative cooling, we will have to deal with some phase-change warming as rain freezing into sleet and ice releases heat into the lower levels of the air column.

If we actually get the 15-20 mph north winds that the NWS is predicting I could see the cold winning out, but the models don't seem to give us that much and the down-valley gradient is not that strong.

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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Personally I think a Heavy rain warning for North Bend on Monday should be the top priority at this stage.

Nobody said it should be top priority... but I do like to see how this will evolve in the models in terms of either dry weather after the snow or windy and rainy.    And an inch or more of rain on Monday might cause some big problems on top of all of that snow.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yes even after this period of possible cold and snow we look to remain in an active and chilly late winter Niña pattern. 🤗 

Hope it lasts through at least the first half of July.

Yeah, once I noticed that in the models I stopped my weenie freakout about my upcoming skunking this week. Most runs show several decent periods of cold onshore flow over the next couple of weeks, and I wouldn't be surprised if that extended into March or even April. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Another thing that has kind of flown under the radar for the upcoming week is that the Oregon Cascades look to absolutely clean up with snowfall totals. Widespread 50-70” the next 5-7 days on the Euro. Could push things well above average by next week.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, once I noticed that in the models I stopped my weenie freakout about my upcoming skunking this week. Most runs show several decent periods of cold onshore flow over the next couple of weeks, and I wouldn't be surprised if that extended into March or even April. 

image.thumb.png.3de97ce0aa11b3866f8df656295b5c52.pngyes! pretty good agreement for longer lasting below avg 850s

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3 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Bellingham will be the overall winner with this overall event. Come through late. Book it.

When all is said and done... this might be true.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

image.thumb.png.3de97ce0aa11b3866f8df656295b5c52.pngyes! pretty good agreement for longer lasting below avg 850s

Starting next week a lot of runs are showing a pretty active period with quite a bit of cold onshore flow. The GFS has been pretty consistent showing about 1500' snow levels next Tuesday night, and the 12z run showed a pretty significant onshore flow event around the 20th before moving to outlier status. The 00z last night showed 4 separate snow events here with cold onshore flow starting next Tuesday. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SalemDuck said:

That WRF map floating around is the model snow version which calls all frozen precip snow (even when clearly ZR or Sleet). Here's the accurate version which is called "accumulated snow"
or_snowacc.84.0000.gif

Over a foot here

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Starting next week a lot of runs are showing a pretty active period with quite a bit of cold onshore flow. The GFS has been pretty consistent showing about 1500' snow levels next Tuesday night, and the 12z run showed a pretty significant onshore flow event around the 20th before moving to outlier status. The 00z last night showed 4 separate snow events here with cold onshore flow starting next Tuesday. 

Heres EPS 500mb out to hr200

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1612958400-1612958400-1613671200-20.gif

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Where is Shawnigan?   It looks like its snowing at his house now.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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48 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Ok, I guess I'll have to start preparing for some branches down and whatnot since most models are on the same page rn

How does one prepare for downed branches?

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Where is Shawnigan?   It looks like its snowing at his house now.

That band of snow has swelled over the last couple hours, but hasn't really moved a whole lot. 

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A few thoughts to add. Now that there seems to be a pretty good consensus on a Waldort-Yachats track for the Thursday system a high-impact snow event/storm for PDX metro looks more likely. Arctic air will progress westward through the Gorge tonight through Friday and we'll begin to see the 850/925 contours that are now aligned more north to south, or northeast to southwest transition to orienting themselves west to east as they stack up over the Gorge with a steepening temperature gradient(warmest over PDX, coldest The Dalles eastward). That is a classic signature for all backdoor arctic blasts. Models especially the EURO Op I feel is underestimating the Gorge influence. The low on Thursday is not very strong, it stalls out and dissipates just off the Coast.
 
Warm Air Advection will not be that strong and with the strong cold east wind I find it unlikely PDX sees much if any rain or ZR with the first system. Now the second system. The first low rides along a boundary or 'arctic front' so to speak. This is crucial as the second system for Saturday is very likely to also ride along that boundary. I think we'll see models trend further south with the second storm too. This leads to a lot more snow for PDX and probably Salem north with some zr added in. I am more concerned for an ice storm south of Salem. If the second Saturday system slides south of us and in familiar fashion tends to dissipate near the coast it will be difficult to moderate Sunday or even Monday. Fun times ahead! C'MON!!!!
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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

How does one prepare for downed branches?

Few deep breaths, hug a few trees, etc. 

I think I meant to say power outages lol

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

How does one prepare for downed branches?

Our county is literally doing that right now. I live on a high use rural road and they are coming through right now with tree lawnmowers and knocking all the deciduous trees that are hanging over the powerlines in the roads. They just did it a couple months ago but it looks like they’re just trying to get anything else that may create a problem if it was weighed down 

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1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

That GRAF model shows temps steadily dropping starting this afternoon

I was mostly being silly. Today looks like low to mid 40s for them.

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14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Another thing that has kind of flown under the radar for the upcoming week is that the Oregon Cascades look to absolutely clean up with snowfall totals. Widespread 50-70” the next 5-7 days on the Euro. Could push things well above average by next week.

Yes... the long range is the top priority right now!    Or maybe you are just mentioning it like I mentioned what the ECMWF showed for early next week in terms of heavy rain. 

I suppose I should know by now that the forum police gets to decide what is important and what can be discussed.  😁

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... the long range is the top priority right now!    Or maybe you are just mentioning it like I mentioned what the ECMWF showed for early next week in terms of heavy rain. 

I suppose I should know by now that the forum police gets to decide what is important and what can be discussed.  😁

I've got your mod preview warmed up and ready to go when you start posting wet road traffic cams and "the 3rd perturbation of the ensemble model has the warm air scouring out all the cold by tomorrow" posts.

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5 minutes ago, iFred said:

I've got your mod preview warmed up and ready to go when you start posting wet road traffic cams and "the 3rd perturbation of the ensemble model has the warm air scouring out all the cold by tomorrow" posts.

😄

Sounds good!   

Side note... I don't think there will be too many wet cams in the Seattle area for quite awhile.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Really happy about this morning’s euro run. I just had a strong feeling it was off with the northern trend when everything else including the euro ensemble moved the other direction. Thursday-Sunday is looking pretty epic for many places now. Nice to see a sub freezing high temp in the mix as well as we don’t moderate until Sunday. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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