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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Really happy about this morning’s euro run. I just had a strong feeling it was off with the northern trend when everything else including the euro ensemble moved the other direction. Thursday-Sunday is looking pretty epic for many places now. Nice to see a sub freezing high temp in the mix as well as we don’t moderate until Sunday. 

Yeah... seems like its compromising.    The weaker version of the low was the key to the big improvements over the weekend from the 06Z run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Update, Firestone says the tire is not repairable. Sucks, because I just replaced that tire a month ago!

did you get tire insurance? best 30 bucks or so i ever spent. paid for itself like 10x over within a year when i had to replace two tires with nails in them. 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Where is Shawnigan?   It looks like its snowing at his house now.

It is snowing lightly. Outflow has extended across the strait in the past couple hours with maybe about 1/2” of snow. 30F with the odd gust of wind from the NE but we are wind sheltered here.  It was crystal clear and 22F when I woke up this morning. 
 

pretty hopeful for a big snowstorm here in the coming days. Those Euro runs showing 16-24” are pretty to look at. 

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I did a case study of the January 1980 and January 1998 winter storms as far Eugene weather is concerned.  In neither case was there any significant issue down here, even with PDX temps down in the mid 20s.  
There was a significant ice storm here in January 1942 but I don’t have any weather maps handy from thence refer to.  
I’m going on a limb and will guess that The Euro model will prove to be correct; we may stay in the mid to upper thirties or warmer for duration of event.  

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

did you get tire insurance? best 30 bucks or so i ever spent. paid for itself like 10x over within a year when i had to replace two tires with nails in them. 

Yup but it's $50 to install it. When I said I would do it myself, they said that I would have to pay for the tire then. I'm getting hustled 😂

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15 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

That band of snow has swelled over the last couple hours, but hasn't really moved a whole lot. 

Outflow induced. It’ll probably stall out there for awhile. It’s pretty light stuff though. 

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Tim, what's your prediction for this weekend? 50 and sunny?

Palm Trees Summer GIF by haydiroket (Mert Keskin)

Snow!   Lots of snow.

Side note... I think it would be much warmer than 50 degrees in that picture.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It is snowing lightly. Outflow has extended across the strait in the past couple hours with maybe about 1/2” of snow. 30F with the odd gust of wind from the NE but we are wind sheltered here.  It was crystal clear and 22F when I woke up this morning. 
 

pretty hopeful for a big snowstorm here in the coming days. Those Euro runs showing 16-24” are pretty to look at. 

Yeah... I have a feeling you be in a really good spot for the weekend festivities.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Our county is literally doing that right now. I live on a high use rural road and they are coming through right now with tree lawnmowers and knocking all the deciduous trees that are hanging over the powerlines in the roads. They just did it a couple months ago but it looks like they’re just trying to get anything else that may create a problem if it was weighed down 

That’s great actually.  An ounce of prevention.  They would never do that hear but we don’t ever get big ice storms. 

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5 minutes ago, Art_Digbee said:

Big temp difference across Orcas as the Fraser winds pick up. A toasty 34 in Deer Harbor.

franser 210.jpg

That’s super cool, get the feeling it’ll be a very snowy few weeks at mount constitution even after this week...snow levels don’t look to high in the longer range. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.47”

Cold season rainfall-32.56”

Snowfall-15.5”

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57 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was chatting with IbrChris this morning about December 20-22, 2008 (He is very bullish on this event btw.). That would probably be an extreme best case scenario for this far south. That one featured an extreme cutoff with the snow. Silverton started as rain, turned to snow and got about 4" before going back to ZR on the 20th. Several miles south of town was just rain. Then on the 22nd, when that next low came through we got about 6-8", with the rain/snow line about 10 miles to the south. 

We will probably see a similar cutoff this time albeit likely further north. 

 

That dec 20-22, 2008 storm has been mentioned several times in the Canadian discussions. Has a similar look on some of the models at this point. 

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Say hello to my little friend.

C6D6F2F2-2605-436D-9B4F-A0333CC3F568.thumb.jpeg.e904420c1d613b49574c606664075234.jpeg

Hopefully that little guy will have thousands of Pepto Peeps to tag along with!

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

That dec 20-22, 2008 storm has been mentioned several times in the Canadian discussions. Has a similar look on some of the models at this point. 

I remember they were predicting 90 mph east winds here before that event... it was much more tame in the end.    That must have been a very vigorous incoming system though.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like the snow is just about done here. Still looks possible that a couple of bands could move through later today and tonight. Ended up with almost enough flakes to cover some of the frozen puddles around the property and for a moment the ground started to get a whitish tinge. Hoping that the clouds stick around to prevent too much warming. Currently 32.6F.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Fantastic EPS run.  A bit colder than the 6z just like the operational, and snowier too!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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20 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

I did a case study of the January 1980 and January 1998 winter storms as far Eugene weather is concerned.  In neither case was there any significant issue down here, even with PDX temps down in the mid 20s.  
There was a significant ice storm here in January 1942 but I don’t have any weather maps handy from thence refer to.  
I’m going on a limb and will guess that The Euro model will prove to be correct; we may stay in the mid to upper thirties or warmer for duration of event.  

Even down this way I don't think there was much with the 1980 event. We had pretty good icing in January 1998, but I don't think the ZR got very far south of SLE with that one. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

My wunderground weather app just dropped my (Seattle) snow totals quite a bit for this whole event after the ECMWF ran:(

Why?  It was a snowier run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember they were predicting 90 mph east winds here before that event... it was much more tame in the end.    That must have been a very vigorous incoming system though.

Yeah the winds being so overdone is also why Seattle ended up getting so much snow. The WRF kept insisting before that one that they'd get less than an inch because of downslope winds and the city got hammered with 6 plus inches.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Yeah the winds being so overdone is also why Seattle ended up getting so much snow. The WRF kept insisting before that one that they'd get less than an inch because of downslope winds and the city got hammered with 6 plus inches.

We got 20+ inches with that one.  Hoping for a repeat.

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember they were predicting 90 mph east winds here before that event... it was much more tame in the end.    That must have been a very vigorous incoming system though.

It's fun going back to read Cliff's blogs about the storm. I was in Enumclaw and the whiteout conditions were insane, but yeah not as strong as they were saying. My parents always talk about the 1983 east windstorm. 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/12/storm-tonight-and-sunday.html

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Looks like the NDJ ONI came in at -1.2C, so the Nina peaked in the OND period at -1.3C. Slightly stronger than 2011-12, but not quite as strong as 2010-11. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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30 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Update, Firestone says the tire is not repairable. Sucks, because I just replaced that tire a month ago!

No road hazard through them? Costco includes free road hazard with their tires that are sold.

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1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

It's fun going back to read Cliff's blogs about the storm. I was in Enumclaw and the whiteout conditions were insane, but yeah not as strong as they were saying. 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/12/storm-tonight-and-sunday.html

In general... when Enumclaw is being hit than its weaker in North Bend and vice versa.   Must have to do with the angle of the outflow.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, thickhog said:

Someone tell me that the WRF is the best close-range model. 

I use the 4k WRF ensemble mean for snow forecasts for my area, and it is often spot on, way more accurate than the NWS.  At least 6 times this year the WRF ensemble mean got our snowfall exactly right when the NWS was way off.  Sometimes they are both in agreement, and sometimes the WRF is way off too, but a far better record than the NWS.  But the WRF ensemble mean is only for certain locations, not a map of the whole area, and only goes out about 48 hours.  It is also not available until sometime after the run ends.

I don't know how accurate it is for other areas, but I my area is a particular tough area to forecast for, as often the temps are marginal for snow, and we have quite a large precip gradient in my area.

UW WRF plumes (washington.edu)

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41 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

gun suiting up GIF

One of my favorites of his movies! 

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yup! I'm hoping we can stay cold on Monday!

 

1565915968_14-kmEPSUSAWashingtonSnowfall(1).gif

Looks like once we get into next week the mean really starts taking off here. lol. On the edge of pink/purple by the end. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Sounds like the Fraser outflow up in Bellingham is starting to crank more.

 

Nice. Randy is an admin in my FB group as is Benjamin Jurkovich. I have so many awesome admins covering different regions (South Valley, Eastern Oregon, Puget Sound, Whatcom County) our groups kicks friggin a$$

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26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Had some flurries in Monroe when driving to Skykomish. Also my neighbor was in Anacortes a bit ago and was snowing like others have mentioned. 

 

87E6D2A9-85C5-4176-AD4D-BE8431CD55FE.jpeg

Quite a picturesque area over there 🍷

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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