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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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3 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Great way to start off the morning

8F6061B0-FB14-4588-8A43-9FA43EF8DF72.jpeg

Holy shït. Bro we’re karmically linked.

 

31170FBE-14BE-47A9-9CB3-65C342BC4586.jpeg

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Those Euro Ensemble members are absolutely jaw dropping.

70% (35/50) give SEA at least 10" of snow and 94% (47/50) show over 6" by the end of the weekend.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

nam-218-all-washington-frzr_total-3282400.png

Nearly every model paints quite the ice storm for parts of NW Oregon and south PDX... concerning.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Wow, I love the NAM this afternoon!  Temps in the 20's throughout the event and tons of snow.  I even get around 9" (Kuchera).  Too bad of course it's the NAM. 

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5 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Other models are show similar temps too in the Seattle area not just the NAM but I assume you’re trolling.

No I'm actually not. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Oops typo I meant sext 

In that case. 

But no seriously, he wrote a blog update. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Alright, I really have to get some work done now. This has probably been one of my most least productive weeks since February 2019.

That being said, see ya'll in an hour for the 18z GFS. 😂

Major props for being johnny on the spot with all the maps! Much appreciated these past few days. 

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Using 10:1 ratios, this is how much snow each model is showing for Seattle through 10 PM Saturday:

18z NAM: 10.9"

12z GFS: 9.6"

12z EURO: 12.3"

12z GEM: 12.4"

12z UKMET: 9.4"

12z RGEM: 14.3"

 

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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From Mark.

KEY POINTS

Temperatures should remain above freezing tomorrow until after sunset west of the Cascades. Roads will most likely be just fine until sometime after dark. But since we don’t know EXACTLY when it’ll freeze in your neighborhood, MAKE PLANS ASSUMING ROADS COULD BE FROZEN AFTER 5PM. Either turning icy from freezing rain or snowy (especially north/east metro)

All of the metro area freezes tomorrow night. We should wake up to pockets of glaze (south metro) on roads Friday morning or snowy roads (all other parts of town). Enough for sledding central/north metro.

Expect a Trace (south metro) to 3″ snow out of the “first wave” ending Friday morning

Roads remain partially frozen during the daytime Friday as temperatures remain at/below freezing.

An additional 3-8″ snow could fall later Friday through Saturday morning with a “second wave” of precipitation. Heaviest will be north and east metro. From Newberg to Wilsonville to Molalla to Sandy there may be no snow, just pockets of freezing rain

This may be it for snow in the metro area, giving us a storm total of a Trace to 12″ in the metro! Very little snow south, but Scappoose, Longview, Clark County, & East Portland get a lot.

The 3rd wave (Sunday) should be mainly freezing rain Saturday evening through Sunday morning and only near Columbia River in central/east Portland. This is the usual freezing rain area during typical wintertime events. You aren’t getting out of this until Monday morning if you live around Camas, Troutdale, & Gresham.

Expect some thawing Saturday afternoon south/west metro, much better roads. Then substantially more thawing on roads everywhere except near Columbia River and Gorge Sunday.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

T-12", wow he’s really nailing it down there.

It could actually verify like that though. Parts of the metro really will get a foot or more and some unlucky parts maybe a dusting with a bunch of ice. 

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38 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Hey even @AlTahoe should do OK!

Nope Rain here to start and only 0-3" at lake level through Saturday. My snowpack was at 36" on Jan 27th and is currently down to just 6" of wet slop. Seattle will have more snow on the ground then my house after this weekend. 

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Making a Costco run, these ice totals are not exciting to think about lol

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Making a Costco run, these ice totals are not exciting to think about lol

I feel like you find them exciting ;)

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I feel like you find them exciting ;)

He does or they would not be mentioned. lol

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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@SouthHillFrosty

I went to Tacoma to pick up my best friend for work(Normal, I was her ride) and this happened on 512 by the mall.

I was at an angle and my jack couldn't lift it enough to get the spare tire on. I had to call les Schwab. This was Fall 2019.  I was also told the tire was damaged and it couldn't be patched. 

20191028_084316.jpg

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Just now, Chowders said:

Just an absolutely gorgeous day in Maple Valley.  Looking forward to snow this weekend!  Will be the first real snow for us in MV since moving from Renton in summer of 2019

20210210_123053.jpg

Nice! What lake is that? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, Kolk1604 said:

@SouthHillFrosty

I went to Tacoma to pick up my best friend for work(Normal, I was her ride) and this happened on 512 by the mall.

I was at an angle and my jack couldn't lift it enough to get the spare tire on. I had to call les Schwab. This was Fall 2019.  I was also told the tire was damaged and it couldn't be patched. 

20191028_084316.jpg

That sucks!! This was my fourth tire to get a flat this year!

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9 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Using 10:1 ratios, this is how much snow each model is showing for Seattle through 10 PM Saturday:

18z NAM: 10.9"

12z GFS: 9.6"

12z EURO: 12.3"

12z GEM: 12.4"

12z UKMET: 9.4"

12z RGEM: 14.3"

 

I was kind of curious so I did this for my location as well. I would be happy with any of these verifying except probably the NAM. Just a little too dry up here, although I would take it over nothing.

18z NAM: 2.5"

12z GFS: 7.5"

12z Euro: 9.5"

12z GEM: 7"

12z UKMET: 7"

12z RGEM: 10"

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I feel like you find them exciting ;)

Perhaps a tad in watching it unfold but the aftermath is awful 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I had a screw in my tire a couple months ago.  Went to Schwabs and got it patched.  A couple months later there were some snowy model runs!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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During a camping trip in the Blue Mountains in August 2013 I got flats in both my spares and had to drive home on a slow leak, airing it up every 60 miles or so... A few months later Eugene hit -10. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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17 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Using 10:1 ratios, this is how much snow each model is showing for Seattle through 10 PM Saturday:

18z NAM: 10.9"

12z GFS: 9.6"

12z EURO: 12.3"

12z GEM: 12.4"

12z UKMET: 9.4"

12z RGEM: 14.3"

 

Wow. That's really, really, impressive. The skeptic in me still (always) thinks a wrench could be thrown in last minute, but hard to bet against that type of agreement!

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I have a good feeling about this event for some reason. Really pulling for u PDX bros.

Wish I had more time to track this with y’all instead of fumbling w/ MATLAB and replacing tires. 😐

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice! What lake is that? 

Pipe Lake.  We purchased from a family that had owned the property for 50 years.  Both Lake Lucerne and Pipe Lake which are connected had small resorts on them in the late 20's. 

https://voiceofthevalley.com/2019/09/10/1939-cherokee-bay-resort/

We decided to tear down the original house built in 1933.  It had been remodeled, but had 7 foot ceilings and was 930 square feet with a cinder block foundation.  We built a new 1600 square foot uber modern place with a shed roof design and 15 foot ceilings.  We kept the 1950 cottage and lived in it and slept in our trailer during construction.  Due to Covid we were all stuck in the 600 square foot cottage for 10 months but it was worth it.  We have two boys now 8 and 10 so it was a bit rough, but we made it.

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NAM 3km shows a slower transition from snow to sleet/freezing rain for PDX than the 12z. Maybe capturing the local influences a bit better being at a higher resolution. Nonetheless, that's a big inversion layer.

nam3km_2021021018_fh49_sounding_KPDX.png

 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

During a camping trip in the Blue Mountains in August 2013 I got flats in both my spares and had to drive home on a slow leak, airing it up every 60 miles or so... A few months later Eugene hit -10. 

We followed a drunk driver on New Year’s Eve (I think 2009?) who was driving on a flat NB from the Rose Quarter.  Cops didn’t get him stopped until we got to Orchards on SR 500.  By then the thing was sparking and spitting chunks of metal.

The rest of that winter sucked.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I have a good feeling about this event for some reason. Really pulling for u PDX bros.

Wish I had more time to track this with y’all instead of fumbling w/ MATLAB and replacing tires. 😐

I haven't used MATLAB in 8 years. I remember it used to freeze on large datasets compared to when I used FORTRAN and IDL. The cool kids use Python nowadays.

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

I haven't used MATLAB in 8 years. I remember it used to freeze on large datasets compared to when I used FORTRAN and IDL. The cool kids use Python nowadays.

Same.   I find MATLAB much easier to code in then python.  The language just feels...simpler. 

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