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I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

Posted Images

I think it's safe to say we will have at least some snow now!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Given the 12z and 18z suite of models, I would have to imagine NWS Seattle is drafting up a WSW for the majority of Western WA right now.

I would imagine they are changing their boxers.  ⛈️

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Seems as though we can usually rely on February to deliver the goods.

 

 

Would be insane to see another 20" February there. Which would mean roughly 51/78" that has fallen since 2011 is in February.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Pretty bizarre this is 24 hours out and it’s pushing 40 in Pasco...

The Arctic push over there is supposed to be quite strong tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I keep thinking about him. Poor guy. Although if his Eugene always gets the boot while everywhere else does well/north-south events 4ever/it will never snow down here again/October cold snaps always lead to south valley sorrow bit ever needed the biggest confirmation bias boost in history here it is.

I’ve got a place in Central Oregon to escape to.  No way I could stand the crappy weather we get here otherwise .  With the burned out McKenzie it is depressing to drive through.  I’m still pissed off at the negligent utility Lane Electric.  I drive by the point of ignition under power lines each time I go to central oregon

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You know that there is going to be a HUGE dump (calm down teenagers) of Watches, Warnings, and Advisories coming soon. They love doing it in batches and the fact they've been a bit quiet midday makes me believe they are getting these things all lined up.

These Watches, Warnings, and Advisories actually can trigger and free up money and resources to prepare, so they don't just throw them around. I'm not predicting later this afternoon, but... now that I've hedged, I wouldn't be surprised if it's later this afternoon.

The recent runs over the last hour or so shows no one is backing down, they may want one look at the 18z Euro (for what reason, I don't know, lol!) but I can imagine they have a laundry list of these things drafting right now, figuring out the exact neighborhoods and the proper wording. 

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The parallel GFS appears to be a terrible model.  With the second storm a sub 1000mb low is off the extreme north OR Coast and almost no precip is shown on one of the frames.  They may have to scrap it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The parallel GFS appears to be a terrible model.  With the second storm a sub 1000mb low is off the extreme north OR Coast and almost no precip is shown on one of the frames.  They may have to scrap it.

Outlier?

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful pre-blizzard day...

20210210_142219.jpg

Thoughts on the potential of actually getting a blizzard warning up here? Also worth noting that both Jaya and Cliff don’t think the east winds will hurt snow amounts up here much, if at all.  In line with the EURO. 

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Based on the current models, I have no idea what to expect. Everything north and east of Beaverton looks like it's gonna get buried. Everything south of Beaverton looks like freezing rain. Beaverton itself is directly on the line. 

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1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

Outlier?

It's unrealistic.  A low of that strength being so dry is very unlikely.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

So far, NWS forecast temps have been about 7˚F too warm for Bellingham.

Seems like guidance has been running a little too cold if anything down here the last few days. Hopefully that will change starting tonight.

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I don't "not like" this:

 

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...A series of winter
storms will be moving across the region through the short term
forecast period and then beyond. There are many winter weather
highlights in effect for this first storm. The first system will
be arriving on Thursday, with snow spreading from southwest to
northeast through mainly the afternoon and continuing overnight.
The heaviest snow accumulations will be over the OR Cascades and
in central Oregon. However, significant snow amounts that reach
warning criteria are also expected in both the OR/WA northern Blue
Mountain Foothills, north central OR, central OR, the eastern
Columbia River Gorge and the Foothills of the southern Blue
mountains. As such these areas have been upgraded to Winter Storm
Warnings. In addition, the Simcoe Highlands was added to the
Winter Weather Advisory area. Snow amounts will decrease from
south to north as this first system takes a more southerly track.
The short range models as well as the ensembles are in much better
agreement today with this first winter storm.

The second storm will arrive overnight Friday into Saturday
morning after a very short break on Friday afternoon and/or
evening. This system looks promising to bring another round of
significant snow, and this time it will include more of the WA
zones as it takes a track that is further north. New highlights
for this second storm will likely be needed again for most, if not
all of the forecast area.

Temperatures will plummet as arctic air spills into the region from
Canada tonight through early Saturday morning. The very cold
temperatures combined with the northerly winds will create near
zero degree wind chill temperatures. The northerly winds will also
cause some blowing and drifting of snow, especially over exposed
ridges, as well as in the Yakima Valley, which typically receives
stronger winds with arctic outbreaks. 88
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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Seems like guidance has been running a little too cold if anything down here the last few days. Hopefully that will change starting tonight.

At least here we have SW winds during the day which have hurt a bit.  The progs have looked like north winds should have been happening.  At any rate I still got a 42 / 26 today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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42/28 today...DP of 23. Nice sunny day today. Still think we see atleast some snow in the air tomorrow before the real sh*t starts Friday. This is looking pretty major. Didn’t expect us to see anything resembling February 2019 again for a long time but here we are. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

At least here we have SW winds during the day which have hurt a bit.  The progs have looked like north winds should have been happening.  At any rate I still got a 42 / 26 today.

45/28 so far here. The 28 was right after midnight since mid level clouds moved in after that. It was still 32 despite the clouds this morning though, good sign a cold airmass is close.

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

12z EPS brought down my sunday high temp by 2F vs 06z

image.thumb.png.8b206a86db49e95352612410529d68b1.png1612936800-tceFgGhXgUw.png

Could you post PDX and maybe TTD?

Please and thank you funny gif man.

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We get a lot of Winter Weather Advisories and  Winter Storm Watches/Warnings.

So they won't issue a warning until 24 hours or less before the event.  A warning means severe weather is happening or is imminent, hence the 24 hour rule.  Also, before 24 hours things can and do change.

They also have to be careful when you have back to back storms.  They don't want confusion when doing that.  One storm at a time.  When 2 storms are close, you might have an advisory for the first storm and then they might skip the watch and go into the warning for the next storm.

So don't expect a warning for the late Friday/Saturday storm until early Friday.

Maybe I am wrong and they will issue a warning sooner, but I doubt it, especially with a weaker storm first

 

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It is really odd to me that there isn't a single message or warning for the majority of the Puget Sound area at this point...🤷‍♂️  Going to catch a lot of people off guard that haven't been paying much attention.

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2 years ago 2/11/19 the epic run of February 2019 was ending with a big 6” overrunning snowfall. 2/11/21 will be the beginning of another epic run. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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1 minute ago, austinwright31 said:

So, do we think NWS Seattle issues a WSW for the South Sound/SW Interior for tomorrow's event, or goes with a WWA?

 

I’m guessing WWA from chehalis to Tacoma. No WSW probably til Friday. Not a lot of snow predicted with the Thursday event. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Been a busy day and just caught up on 6-7 pages of new updates. There is a growing confidence from me that we will see a massive snowstorm for Seattle and potentially historic.

In the now, cloud rolled back in and there is a nice breeze out. Quite chilly and you can definitely feel it. 

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