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Nice to see the strong outflow winds and DPs in the single digits in whatcom county this afternoon. It’s coming! 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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Winter Storm Warning for PDX

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Rain will change to
  snow or freezing rain in the afternoon, from east to west across
  the region. Snow will be more likely for areas to east and
  north of Portland, with mixed precipitation to west and south.
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. Ice accumulations of
  0.10 to 0.20 inch possible to the west and south of Portland.
  Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph, with gusts up to 55 mph near the
  Gorge later Thursday afternoon through Friday

* WHERE...In Washington, Greater Vancouver Area. In Oregon, Greater
  Portland Metro Area.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to noon PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Spotty power5 outages and tree damage are possible
  due to the wind or ice. Travel could be challenging at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will be falling Thursday
  afternoon, dropping into the 20s Thursday night. With the gusty
  winds, expect wind chill values of 10 to 20 degrees Thursday
  night.
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Winter storm warning issued. They are going with 2-6 inches with the higher amounts north and east. Fingers crossed I can manage some snow before the ice. I'm as far north as Camas actually but on the opposite end of the metro. Hopefully the 850s will cooperate. Theoretically closer to the source of the warming but have the coast range nearby for some damming effects too. Ultimately I'll take what I can get around here.

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Rain will change to
  snow or freezing rain in the afternoon, from east to west across
  the region. Snow will be more likely for areas to east and
  north of Portland, with mixed precipitation to west and south.
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. Ice accumulations of
  0.10 to 0.20 inch possible to the west and south of Portland.
  Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph, with gusts up to 55 mph near the
  Gorge later Thursday afternoon through Friday

* WHERE...In Washington, Greater Vancouver Area. In Oregon, Greater
  Portland Metro Area.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to noon PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Spotty power5 outages and tree damage are possible
  due to the wind or ice. Travel could be challenging at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will be falling Thursday
  afternoon, dropping into the 20s Thursday night. With the gusty
  winds, expect wind chill values of 10 to 20 degrees Thursday
  night.
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Portland NWS took away the south valley WSW with the latest update.  No headlines at the moment.  Seems like they are backing off on the idea of significant icing this far south at least with the first storm.

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can someone give me a update? I looked at gfs real quick and it looked crazy for weekend 

Insanity Portland to Olympia tomorrow.

Insanity North Friday/Saturday. Maybe more Sunday.

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55 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

GFS with freezing rain.gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

ZR is always a safe bet w/ sprawling arctic highs. They’re low level cold advection machines.

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Nice to see the strong outflow winds and DPs in the single digits in whatcom county this afternoon. It’s coming! 

according to 12z Euro our winds in puget sound should switch in the next 2-3 hours

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2 minutes ago, Tibster13 said:

Hey all. Been lurking for a few years. Thanks to all of you that are regularly posting maps.

I grew up in the Kirkland/Bothell area but am now living in White Salmon, WA. Definitely a lot more exciting winters down here. Looking like we might be in for a bit of a cluster!

Nice model riding with all of you. I was silent here, but dying on the inside. Hope everyone scores.

You're going to get an amazing event out there. Even more so than the rest of us.

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

according to 12z Euro our winds in puget sound should switch in the next 2-3 hours

Not surprising seeing the strong winds up north currently. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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4 minutes ago, Tibster13 said:

Hey all. Been lurking for a few years. Thanks to all of you that are regularly posting maps.

I grew up in the Kirkland/Bothell area but am now living in White Salmon, WA. Definitely a lot more exciting winters down here. Looking like we might be in for a bit of a cluster!

Nice model riding with all of you. I was silent here, but dying on the inside. Hope everyone scores.

Welcome! 

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Convergence zone just north of the King/Snohomish County line with snow trying to cross the Sound further north.

 

IMG_0125.jpg

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Convergence zone just north of the King/Snohomish County line with snow trying to cross the Sound further north.

 

IMG_0125.jpg

Hmmm interesting didn’t think there would be one I know some of the models were picking up on that though. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hmmm interesting didn’t think there would be one I know some of the models were picking up on that though. 

Believe the previous NAM did then went away with it. Be interesting to see how this develops... wind is starting to pick up. 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Nice to see the strong outflow winds and DPs in the single digits in whatcom county this afternoon. It’s coming! 

I wonder if this is the boundary ?  Down at Redondo looking NW

7AA3FA32-8463-4CAE-A257-8E0595D4CCE4.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

 Still no new AFD from SEA NWS

Must be an incredibly busy and challenging day. No idea when the shift change occur for them but I think there’ll be one before then. 

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2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

 Still no new AFD from SEA NWS

Gonna be an interesting one...probably figuring out what advisories/warnings are necessary too. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hmmm interesting didn’t think there would be one I know some of the models were picking up on that though. 

18z NAM was expecting some snow showers to move into the seattle area around 9pm tonight and linger around till 2am or so. could see that happening. 

download (4).png

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2 hours ago, Requiem said:

Making a Costco run, these ice totals are not exciting to think about lol

One thing I used to hate about the PDX ice storms is you would get this nice dry snow then a layer of freezing rain to seal it in :(.  Difficult to make a snow person with that combo 

Should be chaos at Costco! 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Seattle NWS holding off on issuing a WSW until the night crew can evaluate more.

This is as close to a slam dunk as you can get, but I guess NWS Seattle will be NWS Seattle.

image.png.f2567d56b8354e640b21e0ab1aa33e4d.png

What model are they looking at that shows 4-6 inches for Seattle? I know a few of the ensemble members are showing that but I wouldn't call that that median of anything...

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AFD write up seems to think up to 1” for tomorrow from Seattle northward and 4-6” for the weekend system. More in areas of heavier showers up to 8-10”

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Just now, yellowstone said:

What model are they looking at that shows 4-6 inches for Seattle? I know a few of the ensemble members are showing that but I wouldn't call that that median of anything...

It's the NBM, or National Blend of Models. I think it takes an aggregate of everything and spits out the average. They seem to rely on that model pretty heavily as I've seen it mentioned in numerous scenarios when they are forecasting snow. 

I think bbkid and others with Pivotal plus can access it.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, yellowstone said:

What model are they looking at that shows 4-6 inches for Seattle? I know a few of the ensemble members are showing that but I wouldn't call that that median of anything...

They are using NBM... the blend model. 

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I think it's a little irresponsible for NWS Seattle to not put in at least a watch so people have time to prepare especially since there's still COVID-19 going on. A lot of people do their grocery shopping during the weekend and this is a prolonged event.

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3 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

What model are they looking at that shows 4-6 inches for Seattle? I know a few of the ensemble members are showing that but I wouldn't call that that median of anything...

Isn't the point of the watch to give advance warning of an imminent event? This is a weak explanation.

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Was just curious on the latest. While the numbers have been looking impressive this won’t be anything like a February 2019 or dare I say December 2008 with the prolonged stretch of cold and snow right? I know we were looking for that awhile back but this seems to be more of a quick hitter and done by the end of the weekend now, yes? 

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Just now, GobBluth said:

Isn't the point of the watch to give advance warning of an imminent event? This is a weak explanation.

the warning is to give advance warning of an imminent event. the watch is to let folks know that said event is possible, but not necessarily imminent or certain.

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I think maybe at a minimum snow flurries tomorrow...trace-inch of snow maximum here in Tacoma tomorrow. Not anticipating anything more than a dusting up towards Seattle...but sometimes northern extent of precip fields are underdone. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's the NBM, or National Blend of Models. I think it takes an aggregate of everything and spits out the average. They seem to rely on that model pretty heavily as I've seen it mentioned in numerous scenarios when they are forecasting snow. 

I think bbkid and others with Pivotal plus can access it.

Right...but isn't this the most recent NBM showing....not 4-6 inches...?

 

image.thumb.png.c316abab03985a7761cfb1f1f4988f02.png

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Just now, joaqweri said:

the warning is to give advance warning of an imminent event. the watch is to let folks know that said event is possible, but not necessarily imminent or certain.

either way the nws isn't right not to post something.

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1 minute ago, Shawn344 said:

Was just curious on the latest. While the numbers have been looking impressive this won’t be anything like a February 2019 or dare I say December 2008 with the prolonged stretch of cold and snow right? I know we were looking for that awhile back but this seems to be more of a quick hitter and done by the end of the weekend now, yes? 

Probably will be moderated by Monday. Thursday-Sunday is looking really fun. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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I am surprised that we don't at least have a WWA, if not a WSW, posted for the South Sound/SW Interior for tomorrow's system. I'm sure it'll come with the 2100 forecast package, but still seems a little off. That being said, I just got back from the grocery store, and it's a madhouse, so maybe that isn't necessary...

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Limited resolution at the end of the 18z GFS means that by the end of the run I have between 30-40" of snow. That's helped by a 6-10" storm that comes in next weekend and blankets the North Sound. It's hard to get more beautiful maps than this here. And yes I realize precipitation is overdone and whatever else is going to prevent this from becoming a reality.

20200210_18zGFS_AbsoluteInsanity.thumb.png.5a18d606dcb8833b4d03e1d9359f5a94.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

They are using NBM... the blend model. 

No model is showing that little that I know of.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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