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I am all for the Thursday storm tracking south. It’ll help to pull down and settle the colder air into place for the weekend. 
That’s the bigger storm, don’t know why someone would want the Thursday storm to track closer to Seattle, if it would adversely affect the weekend by moderating the temperatures.

Keep Thursday south to set the stage for the weekend

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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

Posted Images

I would love for someone to post one of their fancy Weatherbell/models maps for total snow on the whole GFS run. Probably over 100" at the Cascade ski resorts. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We had snow piles here from December 2008 that lasted until the second week of February! 

That’s it. My snow piles lasted longer than your snow piles. Late March 2009 here. 

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NWS SEA not changing its tune tonight on the AFD. Probably waiting on the euro to see about snow Seattle southwards. I still think we see a little something Thursday here. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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And then you have the WRF... through Friday at 1 p.m.

 

wa_snowacc.69.0000.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One aspect of this is almost if not constant.  The Central and South Sound are pretty gold.  Are there any models NOT showing at least 10 inches by Monday for that area?  Especially west of the water.  NO matter where the lows go north or south, this time we seem to end up with snow.😍

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4 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I am all for the Thursday storm tracking south. It’ll help to pull down and settle the colder air into place for the weekend. 
That’s the bigger storm, don’t know why someone would want the Thursday storm to track closer to Seattle, if it would adversely affect the weekend by moderating the temperatures.

Keep Thursday south to set the stage for the weekend

I agree too. I’d be fine with waiting til Friday here in the south sound. Probably will be some snow in the air atleast south of Seattle Thursday. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Still pretty good through Friday night, albeit less than 12z. East wind eating up a bunch over the EPSL.

sn10_acc.us_nw (1).png

It would be really nice to be in the area of less snowfall this time around... I would rather see other places get to enjoy some ridiculous snowfall amounts.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

What is the latest analysis from our satellite experts? 

I'm no expert at anything and I haven't been following this too much TBH so no idea what's going on with the satellites. A lot of the stuff is just based off of model runs.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It would be really nice to be in the area of less snowfall this time around... I would rather see other places get to enjoy some ridiculous snowfall amounts.

Yeah it's not a huge deal, most models still show us getting a good amount. Plus it might get more interesting if we can get a strong east wind going. I will be curious to see what the Euro shows for east wind strength on Saturday morning. It's been alone is showing pretty some fairly strong gusts.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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29 minutes ago, rabbitbarf said:

Have we ever thought about launching a discord for this community? Seems like it would be better suited than a early 00's era forum.

Its been comfortable here since the early 00's era.  I like it here fine

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3 minutes ago, rabbitbarf said:

Does this include snowfall from the second low, or just the first?

Looks like both. Here's the total snow thru 10 am Sunday and then temps start to warm 

sn10_acc.us_state_wa (29).png

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

here you go

image.png.83e64c9a932426ff4f1eab1ad5cb7d3b.png

Second time tonight you have made me burst out laughing! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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lol I just noticed something

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

Shouldn't that go into effect now? By Thursday morning, as long as nothing changes, it should be a warning. 

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

@rabbitbarfis probably aware of it, but there are a couple big weather Discord communities out there. They’re ok-ish for tracking active events when they happen all the time, like living in the Midwest or on the Gulf Coast. They suck when things get boring or when you want to dig through old posts.

As for “boomer tech in a Juul pod world”, it just works. I manage all of the infrastructure, I have backups, I don’t have to worry about the forum violating a weird ToS or being reliant on someone else’s platform. Also, the forum format just works out in collecting and categorizing our collective inputs. It becomes easier to search for events, experiences, forecasts, and expectations

Didn't mean it like that, I wasn't even aware there was a discord for here, I just know forums have kinda died out in a way (not that I don't like them). 

Also noticed that you were having issues with ddos/spammers. Have you looked into putting the site behind cloudflare at all? That would be a good fix.

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33 minutes ago, rabbitbarf said:

Have we ever thought about launching a discord for this community? Seems like it would be better suited than a early 00's era forum.

Make one, it would much smoother in some ways.  I'm sure the Millennial and Gen-Z users would appreciate it, we'll fully migrate to other platforms as soon as these boomers die off.

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Mark Nelsen posted:

"Quick dinner break and now checking out maps/models again. Many times, in our snow-starved climate, I’ll downplay expected snow because…well, many times it doesn’t happen. It’s tough for all the factors to come together. This isn’t one of those times; at this point I’m feeling this could be one of the big snow/ice storms of my career."

That doesn't really sound like Mark...

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Just now, nwsnow said:

Mark Nelsen posted:

"Quick dinner break and now checking out maps/models again. Many times, in our snow-starved climate, I’ll downplay expected snow because…well, many times it doesn’t happen. It’s tough for all the factors to come together. This isn’t one of those times; at this point I’m feeling this could be one of the big snow/ice storms of my career."

That doesn't really sound like Mark...

lol marks earlier forecast may have been too conservative after all

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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5 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Latest point forecast has me at up to 6.5 in. by Friday evening and still no WSW lol

wow mine says 

 

Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Light north northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Mark Nelsen posted:

"Quick dinner break and now checking out maps/models again. Many times, in our snow-starved climate, I’ll downplay expected snow because…well, many times it doesn’t happen. It’s tough for all the factors to come together. This isn’t one of those times; at this point I’m feeling this could be one of the big snow/ice storms of my career."

That doesn't really sound like Mark...

He got in touch with Barry Bonds, and Barry gave him a "special" vaccine. It helped Barry hit 70 homeruns in a season. He also threw away his soy milk and his tofu.

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7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

lol I just noticed something


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

Shouldn't that go into effect now? By Thursday morning, as long as nothing changes, it should be a warning. 

I get a lot of winter storms here.  They won't upgrade a watch to a warning until 24 hours or less before a storm.  It must be imminent by definition.

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

lol marks earlier forecast may have been too conservative after all

Imagine if Rich Marriott said that!!

The world would stand still. He’s the biggest snow down player around. I mean - he’s normally right. Lol! But I couldn’t  imagine him saying that. 
as a teenager I used to joke with my buddies, if Rich said a trace to an inch, it really meant a once in a lifetime blizzard! 

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--------------------

Sean Nyberg

Be kind.

   IG: @SeanNyberg

   T:   @SeanNyberg

   Facebook: Sean Nyberg

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I get a lot of winter storms here.  They won't upgrade a watch to a warning until 24 hours or less before a storm.  It must be imminent by definition.

I guess my thinking was more like when the watch goes into effect, it should be a warning by that time. 

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Mark posted "Somewhere between 2-12″ is a first good estimate of total snow during that time. Heaviest north and east metro, including Longview/Kelso. Lighter south & west due to more of the precip falling as freezing rain instead of snow."

I was thinking cold air damming against the coast range would probably allow the west metro to do ok and maintain the frozen column decently. Any reason why this wouldn't be the case? 

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Hmm... should I get excited?

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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12 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Mark Nelsen posted:

"Quick dinner break and now checking out maps/models again. Many times, in our snow-starved climate, I’ll downplay expected snow because…well, many times it doesn’t happen. It’s tough for all the factors to come together. This isn’t one of those times; at this point I’m feeling this could be one of the big snow/ice storms of my career."

That doesn't really sound like Mark...

That is without question the most bullish I've ever heard Mark.

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Just now, Requiem said:

Hmm... should I get excited?

I would wait to see the EURO.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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