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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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2 minutes ago, Acer said:

No, I think it's you're.  What you are talking about is not possessive.

I think you got him.    That is hard to do with Jared.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ICON brings snow south into PDX by Friday morning, so not bad. 

18z GFS had a cold maritime trough next weekend that got me pretty excited. Immense amount of cold air up in NW Canada at the end of the run too, looked like we could have extrapolated and used our imagination to make something interesting happen. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I like that it's less than 24 hours out from this major snow event and I still don't have any alerts or warnings from the NWS yet. Thanks to them sitting on their hands my boss doesn't think it's gonna snow tomorrow and won't let me call out. My car isn't good for winter driving so I'm worried I'll get trapped at the office if it starts snowing after I get there. I work near the Tacoma area where some of those maps were saying there will be 8" of snow by 4pm.

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1 minute ago, HeySoosCreek said:

I like that it's less than 24 hours out from this major snow event and I still don't have any alerts or warnings from the NWS yet. Thanks to them sitting on their hands my boss doesn't think it's gonna snow tomorrow and won't let me call out. My car isn't good for winter driving so I'm worried I'll get trapped at the office if it starts snowing after I get there. I work near the Tacoma area where some of those maps were saying there will be 8" of snow by 4pm.

8" by 4PM TOMORROW? Nah, that isn't going to happen.

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5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I noticed Friday Harbor cam showed white rooftops 

I've got enough now to start filling in the grass about half way - a trace at best. It has been picking up slightly too. Did not expect anything tonight.

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3 minutes ago, HeySoosCreek said:

I like that it's less than 24 hours out from this major snow event and I still don't have any alerts or warnings from the NWS yet. Thanks to them sitting on their hands my boss doesn't think it's gonna snow tomorrow and won't let me call out. My car isn't good for winter driving so I'm worried I'll get trapped at the office if it starts snowing after I get there. I work near the Tacoma area where some of those maps were saying there will be 8" of snow by 4pm.

tacoma has been under a winter storm watch since yesterday, the NWS said in the last discussion that they would leave the night shift to decide whether or not to expand the storm watch area or issue separate alerts

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1 minute ago, joaqweri said:

tacoma has been under a winter storm watch since yesterday, the NWS said in the last discussion that they would leave the night shift to decide whether or not to expand the storm watch area or issue separate alerts

Ah yeah you're right. I was looking at the forecast for my area near Covington and there's not even a special weather statement for my zip code.

The map I saw that had a snow dump on Thursday must've been from a few days ago. My apologies, this thread moves fast and is hard to keep up with.

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Just now, nwsnow said:

ICON thinks its just a normal rain event down here. Seems this model doesn't understand sleet or ZR either. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_17.png

No the ICON definitely doesn't even know what ZR is lol, but the snow line gets very close to central PDX as in every other model. January 1980 style gradient.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

ICON thinks its just a normal rain event down here. Seems this model doesn't understand sleet or ZR either. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_17.png

Amazing to see how far away the real bulk of the cold air is. Runs a few days ago had a PV lobe hanging around in SW Canada. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z 3km NAM looks very nice for many folks through 4AM Saturday. Shows my area only getting 2-4 inches but going to assume it's overreacting to the east winds, hopefully. 

nam-nest-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-3217600.png

Oh I didn't fully realize the 12km NAM showed another foot falling after this. Wow. Nevermind. Not too worried about any areas in the Central Sound if this happens to verify. 

nam-218-all-washington-total_snow_kuchera-3304000.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh I didn't fully realize the 12km NAM showed another foot falling after this. Wow. Nevermind. Not too worried about any areas in the Central Sound if this happens to verify. 

nam-218-all-washington-total_snow_kuchera-3304000.png

Almost 3 feet here. Incredible.

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ICON sucks of course but I like what it does a lot with the Saturday low, weakening it before it harmlessly dissipates off the coast and keeping Portland-north snow that day. Doesn't disrupt the cold pool and opens up the door nicely for more snow with the Sunday overrunning.

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z 3km NAM looks very nice for many folks through 4AM Saturday. Shows my area only getting 2-4 inches but going to assume it's overreacting to the east winds, hopefully. 

nam-nest-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-3217600.png

The local weather guy for North Bend/Snoqualmie (SnoqualmieWx) thinks we should expect snow totals cut in half for both storms because of winds. Wait and see! 

image.png

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Just now, wxmet said:

Almost 3 feet here. Incredible.

GFS was on this last night, backed off to the foot or so it's going on now, though that could change with the 00z run which should start rolling out within the next half hour. would be once in a lifetime stuff, discount january 1880 minus the hurricane force winds

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Amazing to see how far away the real bulk of the cold air is. Runs a few days ago had a PV lobe hanging around in SW Canada. 

The model failures inside of a week have been epic.   Why in the hell did so many runs show arctic air plunging through CA and into Baja?    It was comically bad.

But I am proud of the ICON for realizing now that the system tomorrow is headed for Oregon and not Baja.   As long as it gets it right as its actually happening then its all good! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, HeySoosCreek said:

I like that it's less than 24 hours out from this major snow event and I still don't have any alerts or warnings from the NWS yet. Thanks to them sitting on their hands my boss doesn't think it's gonna snow tomorrow and won't let me call out. My car isn't good for winter driving so I'm worried I'll get trapped at the office if it starts snowing after I get there. I work near the Tacoma area where some of those maps were saying there will be 8" of snow by 4pm.

Uber

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Rain reported on the hour in Newport and Corvallis. Looks like most WV temps are sitting in the low 40s. PDX has a very light E wind, as does Troutdale. Eugene has a light north wind. 

The Dalles is 34 dp20, Hermiston and Pendleton are in the upper 20s with DP's in the teens. 

Fraser outflow is pumping at BLI with 26/10 reported and flurries. 

Looks like Seattle is around 40.

Looks like some impressive cold outflow in NE Washington and North Central, reaching down into the upper Columbia Basin. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

The local weather guy for North Bend/Snoqualmie (SnoqualmieWx) thinks we should expect snow totals cut in half for both storms because of winds. Wait and see! 

image.png

 

It seems like that is a good rule of thumb when we have a strong east wind.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The model failures inside of a week have been epic.   Why in the hell did so many runs show arctic air plunging through CA and into Baja?    It was comically bad.

But I am proud of the ICON for realizing now that the system tomorrow is headed for Oregon and not Baja.   As long as it gets it right as its actually happening then its all good! 

It is a lesson that if you see a model run that looks amazing, but there is no upper level support for what it is showing, you just need to disregard it, even if it is showing what you really want. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Tomorrow should finally break the steak of 40+ degree days SEA.   And it will end with a bang again like it did in 2019.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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56 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

NAM says not much snow up here through Saturday night. Hope it's wrong. 00z definitely better than the 18z though so trending in the right direction.

It’s a crap model. Throw it out!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

It seems like that is a good rule of thumb when we have a strong east wind.  

I’m still trying to learn the scale of that impact. I notice that the east winds don’t impact up here that often and when they do, it’s not as bad as down in town (like around Christmas this year). I often am surprised how windy it is down there when it was a relatively calm day up here. The south winds are what frighten me up here. So, would down in town expect more impacts to snow totals from east winds than up here? Or is it not that localized? 
 

Why are the Enumclaw gap winds stronger than the North Bend gap winds sometimes and other times it’s the opposite?

I swear this is not a weenie question, just trying to understand. I’ll be happy with a blowing 4” - 6”! Less shoveling, more playing!
 

 

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The 00Z GFS is sure a dud for the Seattle area through Friday morning... basically nothing.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interesting that the GFS doesn't see the initial wave getting as far north as the high-resolution models

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The Palm Springs of the PNW. 😎

That would be Yakima!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z GFS continuing to keep tomorrow's snow southward. giving seattle a stray few flakes overnight tonight, but first system gives us nothing. it's been really hefty on the big storm on friday-saturday with the past few runs, fingers crossed it has something resembling the 00z NAM

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That low Saturday goes way south too. Keeps the dream alive for southerners. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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