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2 hours ago, wxmet said:

Early Saturday morning. Heavy snow in W. WA with a low approaching the mouth of the Columbia River

ref1km_ptype.us_nw.png

Sorry Oregon folks but this is a dream set up for this area

Lock it in!

 

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I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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Lol still surprised the nws was so bullish for western WA tomorrow. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

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Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Basically the only thing we're pretty sure about is that Olympia area is going to get buried. I think that's been a constant for quite some time. Other than that, most places will probably get some amount of snow, but it's anybody's guess whether that snow will be measured in inches or feet.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Big shift south on the UKMET at 48 hours with regard to the precip shield. Those of you wishing for this to go south you got your wish.

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Not buying the majority of what the GFS is selling. The last week has really made me realize just how little consistancy that model has. (Watch it be right now 🤪)

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Just now, wxmet said:

Big shift south on the UKMET at 48 hours with regard to the precip shield. Those of you wishing for this to go south you got your wish.

Makes me think the euros gonna follow suit. Pretty good chance this weekend will be just fine...only missing out on 1-2” of snow for most of the Seattle/Tacoma area when a much bigger event is coming anyways. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

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+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Makes me think the euros gonna follow suit. Pretty good chance this weekend will be just fine...only missing out on 1-2” of snow for most of the Seattle/Tacoma area when a much bigger event is coming anyways. 

If this keeps up there may not be a bigger event. I understand people in Oregon wanting the low to keep shifting south but it's a bad result for Western Washington. Another poster mentioned this but it's like chasing a carrot and waiting for that system to come in that will deliver the snow that may never come.

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Just now, wxmet said:

If this keeps up there may not be a bigger event. I understand people in Oregon wanting the low to keep shifting south but it's a bad result for Western Washington. Another poster mentioned this but it's like chasing a carrot and what for that system to come in that will deliver the snow.

Well we will see what happens, I’m guessing things will probably end up a bit more north of what’s being shown. Things are moving south more than I would’ve thought. 

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Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

UKMET says no one north of Pierce County gets much of anything through Saturday night.

Portland gets almost 2 feet though, so yay.

sn10_acc.us_nw (9).png

Some gnarly east winds here. Doubt their effect is that extreme.

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Huge changes for northern areas by Saturday morning.

00z on top, 12z on bottom.

sn10_acc.us_nw (6).png

sn10_acc.us_nw (7).png

Crap the UKMET has me and those north getting no snow at all!

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These trends are horrifying. How quickly we go from Portlanders being upset to Seattleites, and then back and forth. Sheesh. Might have to stay off here tomorrow and just wait.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Well we will see what happens, I’m guessing things will probably end up a bit more north of what’s being shown. Things are moving south more than I would’ve thought. 

I think you're in a pretty good spot for it no matter where it goes at this point, well within the range of uncertainty on either end.

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Didn't the 18z Euro actually trend North with the 2nd L? I'm not buying a major southern shift with how consistent it has been. Does anyone have the 18z EPS placements?

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Just now, jakerepp said:

These trends are horrifying. How quickly we go from Portlanders being upset to Seattleites, and then back and forth. Sheesh. Might have to stay off here tomorrow and just wait.

It’ll probably look different with the 06z runs. 

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Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I think you're in a pretty good spot for it no matter where it goes at this point, well within the range of uncertainty on either end.

That ukmet run was disgusting 

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Just now, mtep said:

I take it back, I'm allowed to hate the GFS. F*** man. I hope the Euro pulls through. 

Going to be a long hour waiting. 

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Warm Season Stats

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Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Just a theory here... but I think the reason earlier runs showed so much more precip to the north tomorrow and Friday was because of a deformation zone setting up due to interaction with arctic air.     The complete lack of arctic air (which has slowly become the reality) might be the reason that the precip totals are so much lower from King County northward.   South of there... the precip is being driven by the position of the low pressure system and not just dependent on a deformation zone.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You guys will be fine, tbh. EURO won’t budge I’m sure, you guys will get a snowstorm and we PDXers may get our, er, ice/snow storm.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just a theory here... but I think the reason earlier runs showed so much more precip to the north tomorrow and Friday was because of a deformation zone setting up due to interaction with arctic air.     The complete lack of arctic air which is becoming the reality might be the reason that the precip totals are so much lower from King County northward.   South of there... the precip is being driven by the position of the low pressure and not just dependent on a deformation zone.  

Which is why I’m kind of nervous for anything north of 90. 

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4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Your fine. This is around noon tomorrow 

download (85).png

Remember... the HRRR always shows virga on those radar maps.   I have seen it happen many times with rain.  

I think tomorrow might be pretty frustrating for those people in King County watching the radar.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Esquimalt said:

That ukmet run was disgusting 

I have a feeling it's pinching off the Friday low too quick such that it quickly dries up on impact rather than taking it further south (although I guess that might be better for southern areas anyway). That's about the worst case scenario for that Friday system.

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