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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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15 minutes ago, iFred said:

@rabbitbarfis probably aware of it, but there are a couple big weather Discord communities out there. They’re ok-ish for tracking active events when they happen all the time, like living in the Midwest or on the Gulf Coast. They suck when things get boring or when you want to dig through old posts.

As for “boomer tech in a Juul pod world”, it just works. I manage all of the infrastructure, I have backups, I don’t have to worry about the forum violating a weird ToS or being reliant on someone else’s platform. Also, the forum format just works out in collecting and categorizing our collective inputs. It becomes easier to search for events, experiences, forecasts, and expectations

I've never have use discord, and I'm not really interested trying now. But I like what you have here. Even the old format was nice.

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5 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Mark posted "Somewhere between 2-12″ is a first good estimate of total snow during that time. Heaviest north and east metro, including Longview/Kelso. Lighter south & west due to more of the precip falling as freezing rain instead of snow."

I was thinking cold air damming against the coast range would probably allow the west metro to do ok and maintain the frozen column decently. Any reason why this wouldn't be the case? 

Possible, but the 850mb temps are everything here and they are fairly aligned longitudinally with this. No question Washington County will be cold enough at the surface, and I would favor sleet to ZR for them, but straight snow will depend on getting those 850mb temps down. It could very well be a situation with a somewhat fluid layer above us as well, where the precip type fluctuates with the heavier rates.

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Dream crusher is about to run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, The Blob said:

I've never have use discord, and I'm not really interested trying now. But I like what you have here. Even the old format was nice.

Discord is a nice supplement to a forum but as a full replacement I find it rather poor.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Possible, but the 850mb temps are everything here and they are fairly aligned longitudinally with this. No question the westside will be cold enough at the surface, and I would favor sleet to ZR for them, but straight snow will depend on getting those 850mb temps down. It could very well be a situation with a somewhat fluid layer above us as well, where the precip type fluctuates with the heavier rates.

I was thinking this earlier.  With the constant dry advection, you may have to cool and recool the column on the front lines.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Mark posted "Somewhere between 2-12″ is a first good estimate of total snow during that time. Heaviest north and east metro, including Longview/Kelso. Lighter south & west due to more of the precip falling as freezing rain instead of snow."

I was thinking cold air damming against the coast range would probably allow the west metro to do ok and maintain the frozen column decently. Any reason why this wouldn't be the case? 

he mentioned hillsboro and banks should do decent.

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I was thinking this earlier.  With the constant dry advection, you may have to cool and recool the column on the front lines.  

For Thursday into Friday at least, that fact alone separates this from many of our big ice events, which are typically transitional in nature and feature some strong southerlies and Pacific seepage up top. 

I do think January 7-9, 1980 and January 10-12, 1998 are the best comparisons to this in recent decades. Doesn't mean we'll end up with 30" though....

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2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Looks good, ship it! 🚢

Showed around 15 inches all over the capital region in the end.  The GEM, icon, gfs and ukmet are hitting it out of the park here.

Nothing compared to the numbers in the puget sound, but a foot and a bit is nothing to scoff at in this climate 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

For Thursday into Friday at least, that fact alone separates this from many of our big ice events, which are typically transitional in nature and feature some strong southerlies and Pacific seepage up top. 

I do think January 7-9, 1980 and January 10-12, 1998 are the best comparisons to this in recent decades. Doesn't mean we'll end up with 30" though....

At least in 98, the west metro didn't fare so well in terms of snow. Maybe 2 inches and a bunch of ice if I recall. 

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

At least in 98, the west metro didn't fare so well in terms of snow. Maybe 2 inches and a bunch of ice if I recall. 

i want only 11 then, but i do remember having like 6-8'' of snow in scappoose it seemed like.  This setup may be similar.  we look to be big winners in this setup.

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27 minutes ago, rabbitbarf said:

Didn't mean it like that, I wasn't even aware there was a discord for here, I just know forums have kinda died out in a way (not that I don't like them). 

Also noticed that you were having issues with ddos/spammers. Have you looked into putting the site behind cloudflare at all? That would be a good fix.

The DDoS was one guy sitting behind a script. As for cloudflare, meh. Next big upgrade is either a modified Discourse/Mastadon setup or I might just build something on my own.

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Just now, MossMan said:

Was a lovely day at the family lake house 2yrs ago today! The north wind was a blowin! 

D87350F7-248C-4A99-A5F6-9216754A5413.jpeg

I shared a video from that day on my FB today. It was actually a pretty mild afternoon, and then around 4:30p the offshore flow kicked in with a heavy snow shower and we got about 2" in 45 mins and a major temp drop. If I recall correctly the next day ended up being our coldest of the month. 30/18. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

At least in 98, the west metro didn't fare so well in terms of snow. Maybe 2 inches and a bunch of ice if I recall. 

Both it and 1980 were cases where the precip type really fluctuated south of the river. A big old grab bag, but more ice than snow.

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Was a lovely day at the family lake house 2yrs ago today! The north wind was a blowin! 

D87350F7-248C-4A99-A5F6-9216754A5413.jpeg

Looks like most of us could fit on that deck. would be a fine meetup spot! thanks for volunteering

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I remember watching KOIN6 weather during the January 1998 event. Pete Parsons said the snow line would make it down to Albany, we ended up with freezing rain in Silverton. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Showed around 15 inches all over the capital region in the end.  The GEM, icon, gfs and ukmet are hitting it out of the park here.

Nothing compared to the numbers in the puget sound, but a foot and a bit is nothing to scoff at in this climate 

Looks like a slight chance for some "strait effect" snow tomorrow as well, although most models keep it over the usual upslope areas to the north of here. Anything that falls will be pretty light. One thing is sure, we will likely have higher than 10:1 snowfall ratios up here being so near the Fraser outflow.

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Didn't even finish reading part 1! :P

Mark Nelsen is now treating this as a real possibility for a major event. I'm convinced. 

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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