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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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2 minutes ago, Outpost54 said:

I registered just to settle all the hand wringing and let everyone know that Seattle will win out over Portland here, so the northern half of this forum can relax.

I lived in Seattle for January 2017, moved to Portland just before February 2019, and have coincidentally been out of town for pretty much every meaningful snow event in my area in the last 5 years. I barely even travel, too, so it's not like I'm just gone all the time and statistically likely to miss most snow.

The last time I can recall actually being present for more than 1 inch of accumulating snow in this region was in January 2012. It's kind of absurd. I have to wonder if pissed mother nature off in a past life or something.

I'm in Portland currently, so there will not be any accumulation here. Congrats Seattletonianites, enjoy the snow!

I'd say you are way past due and that your reverse jinx will add karmic glory to local snow totals. Welcome and enjoy your BLIZZARD!

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4 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Interesting that it doesn't have a big impact on the totals up here and even further north. Different dynamics at play up here I suppose.

Yeah... I am guessing the ECMWF is picking up on more drying effect from the east wind like the other models which explains the reduced precip from Seattle to Bellingham.   Its probably the same signal the other models picked up on tonight but the ECMWF is just more rational and does not assume it means no precip will reach the ground! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

35* and 22* dp

wind calm 

Weather fun imminent, no more standing in line. Enjoy all and stay safe 

Yep fun times are coming for sure. Just bought a sled yesterday and hoping for enough snow so my buddies and I can build a big ramp on our local hill and bust out the snowboards too. Haven’t been able to snowboard here since February 2019!

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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8 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Interesting that it doesn't have a big impact on the totals up here and even further north. Different dynamics at play up here I suppose.

Assuming our snow ratios will be more impressive if we have the moisture to work with 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I am guessing the ECMWF is picking up on more drying effect from the east wind like the other models which explains the reduced precip from Seattle to Bellingham.   Its probably the same signal the other models picked up on tonight but the ECMWF is just more rational and does not assume it means no precip will reach the ground! 

I'm gonna go with 4"-6" for Seattle as my final prediction for the weekend stuff because of this. 

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Dare I ask for an ice map pretty please?

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

Yeah, to be honest, the quality of discussion on here tends to be pretty bad. It's kept me from participating for a while and I'm sure a lot of other lurkers feel the same way. Unfortunately I'm not really sure what the solution to that is. You can't ban someone just for being genuinely unintelligent or mentally unwell.

Fred seems like he works really hard on this place too. It's a bummer that this place is so unpalatable to many potentially high quality contributors, despite his efforts, and the efforts of the people here that do have great posts.

For a forum about a scientific subject, there's a breathtaking level of distain for and lack of interest in science here. And some of the regulars I see posting honestly make me wonder if the people behind them are actually just very, very dedicated trolls doing an impeccable job at playing a cartoonishly absurd and unlikeable character. At least I hope so, for their own sake. 😂

Anyway, I hope everyone gets lots of snow this weekend!

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On Saturday for some areas in the EPSL the Euro shows temps in the mid/upper 20s, DPs in the teens, and east winds gusting on either side of 50mph with moderate snow falling. I'm not sure if I have experienced something like that before here. Going to be some drifts with winds like that.

I'm kind of surprised the Euro still shows 8-9 inches out here with east winds that strong. Doesn't quite add up. Not to mention the GFS doesn't show winds cracking 20mph the entire event. Another instance where the Euro could prove it's dominance. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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There is even a little snow on Monday afternoon on this run.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-3433600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Only took until right up to the event but the major models are finally in decent agreement for the first low and the event here in PDX through Friday 10PM.

With the exception of the NAM, seems most models are agreeing on about 4-7 inches and it looks more widespread than in previous runs. Seems there is still details that need to be worked out about the 2nd low.

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

I love/hate that the range in PDX is 5.5-9.4 and in SEA it’s 0-7.6. Nowcasting will be at its finest. 

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Just now, Cloud said:

I'm gonna go with 4"-6" for Seattle as my final prediction for the weekend stuff because of this. 

My prediction of 7” a few days ago isn’t looking too far off. I think we will all calm down a bit once the snow finally starts!

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

On Saturday for some areas in the EPSL the Euro shows temps in the upper 20s, DPs in the teens, and east winds gusting on either side of 50mph with moderate snow falling. I'm not sure if I have experienced something like that before here. Going to be some drifts with winds like that.

I'm kind of surprised the Euro still shows 8-9 inches out here with east winds that strong. Doesn't quite add up. Not to mention the GFS doesn't show winds cracking 20mph the entire event. Another instance where the Euro could prove it's dominance. 

Where were you in December 2008?

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Just now, yellowstone said:

I love/hate that the range in PDX is 5.5-9.4 and in SEA it’s 0-7.6. Nowcasting will be at its finest. 

Remember this is only through 54 hrs. The first low will impact southern areas more. Hopefully that precip shield will extend further north and create some nice surprises for northern areas but the real heavy hitter likely has to be that 2nd low coming in Friday evening. Hopefully that looks more dynamic than what we saw on the 00z ECMWF...

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2 minutes ago, Outpost54 said:

Yeah, to be honest, the quality of discussion on here tends to be pretty bad. It's kept me from participating for a while and I'm sure a lot of other lurkers feel the same way. Unfortunately I'm not really sure what the solution to that is. You can't ban someone just for being genuinely unintelligent or mentally unwell.

Fred seems like he works really hard on this place too. It's a bummer that this place is so unpalatable to many potentially high quality contributors, despite his efforts, and the efforts the people here that do have great posts.

For a forum about a scientific subject, there's a breathtaking level of distain for and lack of interest in science here. And some of the regulars I see posting honestly make me wonder if the person behind them are actually just very, very dedicated trolls doing an impeccable job at playing a cartoonishly absurd and unlikeable character. At least I hope so, for their own sake. 😂

Anyway, I hope everyone gets lots of snow this weekend!

Too many big egos from non trained individuals can do that to a forum.

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14 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Need one more southward shift to get Beaverton/Tigard into the pink. Right now, still looks like a lot of freezing rain for anyone even slightly south of Portland. 

I think the models are in agreement for the first low and IMO the odds of staying all or mostly snow for most of the metro are looking a bit better now. Other than the NAM, all the other models hint that you just might do quite ok. 

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2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Remember this is only through 54 hrs. The first low will impact southern areas more. Hopefully that precip shield will extend further north and create some nice surprises for northern areas but the real heavy hitter likely has to be that 2nd low coming in Friday evening. Hopefully that looks more dynamic than what we saw on the 00z ECMWF...

Granted that second low looks plenty juicy even on the EURO— seems a general consensus right now that it’s a good shot at a pretty nasty winter storm. 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Redmond Ridge area. I don't remember there being strong east winds there like what's shown for Saturday morning. 

Ahhh... I am guessing there was lots of wind with the snow in your current location back in 2008.   I thought you might have been in Carnation.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Granted that second low looks plenty juicy even on the EURO— seems a general consensus right now that it’s a good shot at a pretty nasty winter storm. 

100% agreed. We’ll get a decent shot either way. Just commenting on that first storm. 

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Well tomorrow is the big day. Light rain and 36 here. 

UKMET for the win. 

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  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhh... I am guessing there was lots of wind with the snow in your current location back in 2008.   I thought you might have been in Carnation.

Nope. This is really the first area I've lived in with direct access to the east wind. Lots to learn. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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4 minutes ago, wxmet said:

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there's also everyone's individual personality. I find the personality aspect of it brings a uniqueness that's outside just looking at weather that I feel helps to keep things light and fun.

100% agree. Outside of the occasional way out of the ballpark political discussions (cringe), most of the banter stuff on here is quite hilarious and fun  imo. 

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6 minutes ago, wxmet said:

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there's also everyone's individual personality. I find the personality aspect of it brings a uniqueness that's outside just looking at weather that I feel helps to keep things light and fun.

Yeah... not sure how a forum would not have all kinds of personalities when we spend so much time together for years.  It would be pretty boring if we did not express any emotion and just talked about the science.    

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like a fair amount of mid level moisture on the radar in NW OR already. HRRR shows our initial band forming between 1-3am.

Satellite shows the moisture cross-over has begun...

 

sat.png

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Just now, iFred said:

A little over a decade with you and I want to ban you but I can’t make myself do it. You can’t ban family.

hey I even have a soft spot for CulverJosh. I probably disagree with the dude about every single thing anyone could ever think of to discuss but the guy loves a good snowstorm and I'd be fine to drink some Hamms with him and talk snow.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... not sure how a forum would not have all kinds of personalities when we spend so much time together for years.  It would be pretty boring if we did not express any emotion and just talked about the science.    

A lot of us have posted together for well over a decade and know each other's tendencies like an old married couple. I can understand where outsiders might find that dynamic off-putting, but it's also kind of the glue that holds the forum together IMO.

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I’ve been on this forum for 2 1/2 years now. I love this place...despite some of the subtle trolling and occasional BS there’s many people here with tons of knowledge and I’ve learned a lot from this place. I honestly didn’t know much when I started here...and I’m far from an expert but my understanding of weather forecasting and historical weather events has greatly improved. Most of the people here are pretty fun and we have a good time and a great mix of personalities. It’s been a great time especially this past week. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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5 minutes ago, iFred said:

A little over a decade with you and I want to ban you but I can’t make myself do it. You can’t ban family.

😍

I don't take that for granted either.    I have been really trying to improve over the last couple of years.  

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I am confident that no matter where the lows end up tracking, the precip shields will be well enough further north than progged on the models, I think the NWS feels the same way based off the WS warning and Watch.

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

I am confident that no matter where the lows end up tracking, the precip shields will be well enough further north than progged on the models, I think the NWS feels the same way based off the WS warning and Watch.

Usually the case with deformation zones... they cause the models fits.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

😍

I don't take that for granted either.    I have been really trying to improve over the last couple of years.   I am slow work in progress! 

You still have a long road to travel 😂

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Don't know if this is happening to anyone else... but currently getting "HTTP ERROR 500" -- with page unable to load when click on the "The West Coast, Southwest, and Rockies" link @iFred

Edit: Only way to bypass this for me is to click on this discussion thread directly. Desktop version.

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I certainly do hope I’ve somewhat improved over the past year or so. Gotta say I was quite the shitty poster starting out— hopefully now less so? 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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