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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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59 minutes ago, Bryant said:

06z ICON 

icon-all-washington-total_snow_10to1-3347200.png

All those beautiful numbers and the WV gets skunked of everything. :(  Are we going to be playing this? 

Or this?

If we can't get to the latter at least once I prefer the 1st video and get things over with.

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1569994371_download(10).thumb.png.429906f83bfc0ef2481cc6716d4af95c.png

The Euro also continues the theme of southerlies Saturday afternoon warming the sound up into the low 40's by midday. Not sure how much I trust it with those easterly gradients slowly subsiding throughout the day, but who knows. Still gets well below freezing at night.

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224034985_download(13).thumb.png.63cc11e7b8272779735ec59864b9bce5.png

There also seems to be a snowstorm on Monday as well. Low level easterlies and moderate precip rates dump 2-5" over the central sound to even the score a tad, though temperatures are marginal in the low-mid 30's.

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12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

1366576439_download(11).thumb.png.15c3f7c843b3e8bd66a80b2473c4d175.png

483913604_download(12).thumb.png.5c475cd4d449ecd70d9ac414ea579be8.png

06z top, 00z bottom. A few notches weaker and a kiss south, hence the small reduction in snowfall totals north of Chehalis, and the small increase around the Portland area.

How does the eps compare 

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The MSLP maps aren't available for the GFS for some weird reason, so try and believe me here. The Euro is further north and much weaker with Saturday's low than the GFS, as well as being a few hours advanced in timing. The Euro is better at resolving these kinds of features, so it bears monitoring to see if it weakens further in future runs.

In my opinion, I think this just once again another bounce around the available bracket of potential snowfall outcomes, and I think we'll see more random perturbations and nudges both ways before the onset of the storm. These deformation features are notoriously difficult to nail down, and more often than not come down to minor differences in how efficiently the atmosphere can utilize the available moisture in the atmosphere. This will be a long-duration snowstorm with plenty of opportunities for regional over and underperformances, even when compared to forecasts issued the day of. Regardless, as it stands on the "worse" 06z run, I don't think I'll be complaining over 7" of snow (likely more due to higher ratios).

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NWS has drastically reduced total potential snowfall here since midnight, biggest snow amount for a period is 1 to 2 inches now, instead of a couple 1 to 3 inches and a 5 to 8 inch period.  Thats disappointing, very dissappointing.

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28 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

NWS has drastically reduced total potential snowfall here since midnight, biggest snow amount for a period is 1 to 2 inches now, instead of a couple 1 to 3 inches and a 5 to 8 inch period.  Thats disappointing, very dissappointing.

You're in Aberdeen?

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4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

3km NAM continues to look very east wind affected through Friday night. Sharp cutoff where those winds come out over King County. 

Has me a little worried that the high res models are picking this up like this. 

nam-nest-seattle-total_snow_10to1-3192400.png

Saw some discussion on Twitter of the effect of east winds. Like @TT-SEAwas saying, it’s not clearcut how it will effect snow totals. 
 

 

2CD1025E-0294-4D85-AE68-CA182743B196.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

You're in Aberdeen?

No, east of town a tad closer to Montesano,  200 ASL, in the Chehalis Gap.  Jessie got that my post was weenieish, they did cut totals back back I still think 6 to 10 inches of snowfall is on the table.

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It's been raining for a few hours here in SE Gresham but it's becoming freezing rain now. 32F currently and there's ice on my chainlink fence. It's going to be pretty treacherous out there if there's ice under the snow that's coming later...

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NAM 12z looks similar to the HRRR with precip reaching the central Sound by midday. The low is a little further north than the previous run.

 

13FF52E3-FF4B-4DEC-864E-3F61804C1A31.png

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Just now, wxmet said:

NAM 12z looks similar to the HRRR with precip reaching the central Sound by midday. The low is a little further north than the previous run.

 

13FF52E3-FF4B-4DEC-864E-3F61804C1A31.png

Second low also looking stronger

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Just now, antipex said:

Troutdale is now reporting 34F and freezing rain. Didn't expect this!

32.1 here, doesn't appear to be freezing up here just quite yet but very close.

 

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1 minute ago, Andrew M said:

32.1 here, doesn't appear to be freezing up here just quite yet but very close.

 

31 now up the street. It's cooling pretty quickly now.

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The gradient through the gorge has really increased in the last two hours. Cold air is just trickling into the basin though, so it will take a while. Pendleton is still 21 degrees. 

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1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Temps do seem a little warm down south but obviously precip/evap cooling will help with that. 

East winds will take care of that. The big air conditioner is turned on 

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Up here in the Puget Sound current battle line for the colder air looks to be around mt Vernon.  Typically there will be some sort of convergence around that battle.

Edit: It looks like that is currently happening a little north in Bellingham. Will be interesting to see what that does throughout the day as models have a hard time with those. 

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4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

East winds will take care of that. The big air conditioner is turned on 

True but I fell like that tends to take longer to happen than what models predict and a lot of times doesn’t reach out west as far as they predict early on.  

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1 minute ago, Andrew M said:

Precip appears to be enchanting over PDX as it interacts with the cold air coming out of the gorge 

IMG_1547.mov

That's very enchanting.  ;)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hopefully our snow totals don't get cut back even further. I'm still going to be thrilled by a good 5'', as the Euro currently shows for my area. 

Hopefully this system today can at least get me a dusting. 

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The radar looks favorable to get precip into Seattle and past Seattle later today... it looks more robust at this point than I was expecting.

And on another note... the 06Z ECMWF was much cooler and snowier for Sunday with that system staying offshore.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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