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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The event hasn't happened yet.  I can't believe people are unhappy with these runs.

I'm being facetious. The trends are disappointing, but if I can get the 5'' currently being modeled, I'll be more than happy. 

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West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We had a lot of good reason to believe it given past history and current climate trends. Things really worked out well this time.

image.gif.22759bb3f8e36e2ff5037f73352e7fa8.gif

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Randy, Jake, Bellingham crew, Everett crew: I propose a weenie/loser meetup in Portland. Bring your blow torches and we can melt all their snow. 

Or your dump trucks! We can just fill them up and bring them to the north sound. If we put them close to some of the weather stations we might even get slightly colder temperatures out of them!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for clarification... this run sped up the timing on the warm up from the last couple runs.

Sort of, but the second low takes a colder track for Seattle.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for clarification... this run sped up the timing on the warm up from the last couple runs.

Practically over at that point, right?

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We had a lot of good reason to believe it given past history and current climate trends. Things really worked out well this time.

People are really underestimating the GFS v16 imo. Plus, people treat the Euro far too much like gospel. If the Euro is 70% accurate, then the GFS is 50% (v16 maybe 60-65%). The Euro is definitely a better model, but when there's disagreement, it's not always going to be the one that's correct. Just because more often than not, the Euro is the one leading the way, doesn't mean that the GFS is never leading the way.

Plus, the improvements made with the v16 are incredibly meaningful for this set up. I am going to be inclined to weigh GFS v16 heavier than anything else for any situation in Portland involving Gorge influence and low level cold. That's specifically what the v16 was designed to improve on and it's likely able to handle weird set ups like this one much better than the others.

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, and I'm not necessarily talking about a major arctic airmass, either. Really just a more full latitude longwave troughing situation with further jet suppression into parched CA and some cooler/drier conditions across the PNW. Aside from the rather weak attempt at that in late January, there just hasn't been much in the way of that for a couple years now so we're definitely "dew". And Nina climo the next few weeks should favor it. Maybe something like late February 1996.

Ah, gotcha. I thought you were alluding to an actual arctic blast into the region.

This is probably the closest brush with that type of airmass this winter, barring some unusual early/dynamic FW and last minute TPV displacement in March (which is possible but less likely imo). 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

 

Poor Leon Lett. Think that's the second GIF of him so far in this thread.

Yup! Hey, he did it to himself. 

Had a pretty nice career though, especially for a 7th round pick. 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Poor Leon Lett. Think that's the second GIF of him so far in this thread.

Ironically, the valley had a VERY nice snow event a few weeks after this play.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ah, gotcha. I thought you were alluding to an actual arctic blast into the region.

This is probably the closest brush with that type of airmass this winter, barring some unusual early/dynamic FW and last minute TPV displacement in March (which is possible but less likely imo). 

Yeah, I think it's safe to say that any more -20 departure days are pretty unlikely for Portland and Seattle.

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2 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Very breezy here in Fircrest with winds from the NE. 35 degrees. Snow is picking up in intensity a little bit. Going to be a while before any accumulation I think.

Was snowing harder down at costso...just flurries here at the moment. I’d imagine it’s going to pick up shortly though radar returns increasing. 

79815910-AE9F-484E-865D-5911726ACE9E.jpeg

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Really cool to see the Euro trend over the last 6 days. Pretty similar totals throughout the area (except for south of PDX sorry) although there were obviously some better or worse runs in there. The southerly trend over the last couple runs is apparent, but not too significant.

trend-ecmwf_full-2021020600-f240.sn10_acc.us_nw.thumb.gif.75669013a2f4b76c28335266899a8e96.gif

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Is there any sleet falling in PDX area under those localized enhanced echoes? 

Just noticed some light flurries here for the first time today. Might be some sleet mixed in too.

Temp holding at 34.

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13 minutes ago, iFred said:

Practically over at that point, right?

Really hoping to see about 20 more posts on this fascinating topic (multiple maps at varying resolutions included) as we head into a regional snow event.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Just noticed some light flurries here for the first time today. Might be some sleet mixed in too.

Temp holding at 34.

Clouds have thinned, no precip, and 36 - west side of town.

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Dew point starting to drop and wind picking up a little. Temperature still hanging out at 29F.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Current HRRR will bust, no way the low ends up that far north

Why people continue to use that beyond a few hours out is beyond me. Many of the wawx folks on Twitter, including local mets, love to tout what the HRRR shows but I find it to be wrong more often than not.

It's a glorified future radar, not an operational-type model. Use it as such.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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