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Next few days could be fun for PDX, we have a lot of moisture to work with, especially the next storm. Currently snowing and sticking.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

FWIW the FV-3 GFS is significantly better on the 18z run. Much less downslope drying and more snow North of Seattle. Everett goes from 1" to 7".

 

trend-gfs_para-2021021118-f060.sn10_acc.us_nw (1).gif

Its picking up on my direct order to deliver snow to Everett.   😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Outpost54 said:

Crap, you caught me before I could delete it. I realized what a moron I am as soon as I posted it hahah

I had to google it real quick because otherwise I was going to be really pissed/jealous.

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2 minutes ago, luterra said:

We are up to 0.27" on the day.  Decent amount of moisture headed north to the snow zone.  Doesn't look like enough QPF to cause trouble if we do drop below freezing tonight, but tomorrow evening could be a different story.

 

The system tomorrow night could be very high impact for NW Oregon. The low level cold should be well established by tomorrow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looking like a nice band of snow moving south to finish the night. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-66

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The system tomorrow night could be very high impact for NW Oregon. The low level cold should be well established by tomorrow. 

Mark said it could stand alongside storms like January 1980 and 1998, as well as December 2008 in terms of memorability.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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44 minutes ago, TeacherLori said:

It's mostly that things keep getting pushed back. Monday!? What happened to Thurs? Friday? The weekend? And then this: "Seattle ends up with 5-6 inches of snowfall...perhaps half of that in depth." And this: "The main U.S. model the GFS, has subtle differences, with far more snow in general, particularly around Puget Sound.  Much less north of Everett." We are just south of Everett...

Sorry - I just got a little depressed. (But maybe that's good. Don't want to jinx anything! 😃 😉 )

Actually I think there are three storms in the picture.  One today and tonight mostly in SW Washington and NW Oregon, the next one is late Friday and Saturday (the bigger one) which should cover most of western Washington, followed by a Monday disturbance that looks like it would hit the northern areas too.  The timing is a little later but mostly the problem is the trajectory of the storms and the drying east winds.  Don't worry about getting a little depressed, that's my specialty.

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8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

FWIW the FV-3 GFS is significantly better on the 18z run. Much less downslope drying and more snow North of Seattle. Everett goes from 1" to 7".

 

trend-gfs_para-2021021118-f060.sn10_acc.us_nw (1).gif

How does it compare with low placement?

The weenie in me didn't like the northerly jog for the Saturday system on the 18Z Euro. It had rain showers even up to the Puget Sound region by Saturday night.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

How does it compare with low placement?

The weenie in me didn't like the northerly jog for the Saturday system on the 18Z Euro. It had rain showers even up to the Puget Sound region by Saturday night.

Slight bump North and a bit stronger.

 

trend-gfs_para-2021021118-f042.prateptype_cat.us_nw.gif

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its picking up on my direct order to deliver snow to Everett.   😃

Check your DM’s, I have some coordinates for a house I’d like you to consider for your next proclamation. It’s for a friend...

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Today's low is not that far south of its projected location - it's just that the lowest pressure over land is well south of the low center.  This is setting up the broad WNW-ESE axis of surface low pressure that will persist south of the arctic boundary for the next few days.

hrrr_ref_frzn_nwus_1.png

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3 minutes ago, luterra said:

Today's low is not that far south of its projected location - it's just that the lowest pressure over land is well south of the low center.  This is setting up the broad WNW-ESE axis of surface low pressure that will persist south of the arctic boundary for the next few days.

hrrr_ref_frzn_nwus_1.png

That's some top notch analysis. Probably why PDX looks to stay solidly in a snow profile tomorrow into Saturday even with the system coming in around the mouth of the Columbia or a little north of there.

The system staying offshore or at least west of the I-5 corridor before petering out seems to be key for maintaining this configuration, even if it ends up pretty far north.

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Daily snowfall record at PDX is 1.5" from 1949. Will be interesting to see if they can threaten that. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Nam further north it would appear

I don't think there has been a single run in the last five days you haven't said this about.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Daily snowfall record at PDX is 1.5" from 1949. Will be interesting to see if they can threaten that. 

Saw from the daily roundup that they hit 40 just after midnight today. Dagger 🔪 in my heart Andrew

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I don't think there has been a single run in the last five days you haven't said this about.

Why do you downvote almost every post I make? 😂

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1 minute ago, Esquimalt said:

Why do you downvote almost every post I make? 😂

Because I often find your analysis a little misleading and IMBY centric. I'm sure you're a nice guy though!

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Saw from the daily roundup that they hit 40 just after midnight today. Dagger 🔪 in my heart Andrew

Yep, I think they had a 40 degree reading on the 12:56a obs so I was expecting that gut punch. Unfortunate because the record min max today was 38, Obviously they stayed below that this afternoon. 

Salem had a midnight high of 40 as well. I really think PDX has a shot at a sub-freezing high tomorrow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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35 minutes ago, Colt said:

Not worried about the business part of it more for our drivers on the roads and kids trying to get home. A lot of people that order pizza delivery during a snow storm are the ones that wouldn’t want to go up and down the hill to get to their house themselves. But probably will effect things more Saturday then Friday night rush anyway.

Ahhhh, something we did not do.

Understandable taking their safety into consideration 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yep, I think they had a 40 degree reading on the 12:56a obs so I was expecting that gut punch. Unfortunate because the record min max today was 38, Obviously they stayed below that this afternoon. 

Salem had a midnight high of 40 as well. I really think PDX has a shot at a sub-freezing high tomorrow. 

Sub-30 or bust Andrew. THe bar has been set. No going back now

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Pretty amazing 6p obs. 

Salem has now hit 32, PDX 32, EUG down to 36. 

Newport has dropped to 37 with offshore flow absolutely ripping. NE 28g33

The Dalles down to 25, Pendleton 21, Redmond 17. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Because I often find your analysis a little misleading and IMBY centric. I'm sure you're a nice guy though!

Perhaps then you could do a 315-330 degree angle arrow 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Sub-30 or bust Andrew. THe bar has been set. No going back now

They could do it, as long as they get below 30 by midnight... 

Salem had a high of 33 on Christmas Eve and I said it would probably be their coldest of the winter, tomorrow could prove me wrong on that one too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We got a lot of moisture on the way. Anyways NAM is sorta strange with the Saturday low but still ends up around the OR/WA border. Lots of snow for PDX and Seattle.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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