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11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

12z gfs shows a rare puget sound ice storm and snow on Monday. Has shifted south again. Rgem is mostly snow for same time. WE DO NOT WANT 12Z GFS TO VERIFY MONDAY.

Side note... the 12Z GFS actually shifted north and weaker with the system on Monday.

00Z run on top and new 12Z run on the bottom...

 

gfs-deterministic-nw-mslp_anom-3412000.png

gfs-deterministic-nw-mslp_anom-3412000 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

Posted Images

30 with a DP of 14 now...low of 29. Looks like the storm isn’t far off on satellite. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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What is the timing with the snow tonight/saturday the noaa says this on their site for my area

Today
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Wind chill values between 24 and 29. Light and variable wind.
Tonight
Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 25. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Second darkest shade of blue is not good enough TIM! Try again with your weather machine and purple (or Better yet pink) sharpie!! 

Thankfully, model consensus is that northern areas continue to score with subsequent systems.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Not sure if its accurate... but the WRF shows the main precip shield well to the west at 4 p.m. and its just moving into the Seattle area by 10 p.m.

 

pcp1.12.0000.gif

pcp1.18.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I doubt the main snow starts in 14 hours. System is racing eastward...I’m thinking it’ll be here a few hours earlier but could be wrong. Just looking at satellite it doesn’t seem like it’s very far off now. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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The WRF still refuses to move the snow much to the east of Seattle through 7 a.m. tomorrow...

snowacc.27.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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390 feet in east Puyallup here, and woke up to just a light dusting and 27 degrees this morning. I'm a little downtrodden that we missed out on all the South fun yesterday, and I'm afraid subsequent storms will be too far west/north to provide much action here... after living here 5 years it still blows my mind that 10 miles south can get 10 inches and we get nothing!

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26F sleet/ZR SW Beaverton/Cooper Mtn.  Close to one inch of snow overnight on top of ice.  Next system on the edge, I'm thinking more sleet/ZR as the main precip type.  

Edited by Rustysprocket
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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I doubt the main snow starts in 14 hours. System is racing eastward...I’m thinking it’ll be here a few hours earlier but could be wrong. Just looking at satellite it doesn’t seem like it’s very far off now. 

The main shield that will bring our snow is still well offshore.

 

sat 2-12.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Euro > WRF

 

So very true... not even a question.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Rustysprocket said:

26F sleet/ZR SW Beaverton/Cooper Mtn.  Close to one inch overnight on top of ice.  Next system on the edge, I'm thinking more sleet/ZR as the main precip type.  

something funky when with the offshore flow off the gorge isn't enough to cool the atmosphere. Don't know how that changes before tonight.

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I'm going to have a T-shirt made that says, "I beat the warm nose".  Now that being said, I had 34f and rain until 6pm when temps started creeping down again.  By 7 I had 33 with sleet so I knew the upper levels had cooled.  By 9 I was at 32 and tiny flakes starting to mix in when at 9:30.  .  .  . my power went out.  Lost all my floodlights over the creek.  We ended up going to sleep and never saw a flake fall.  So, if you don't see any flakes fall, did they really fall?  Ended up with half inch.  Right now, 29 with light rain mist/drizzle.  What will tonight bring?  Another warm nose?  Probably. This is the same one Andrew is under.

IMG_3087.HEIC IMG_3091.HEIC IMG_3092.HEIC IMG_3093.HEIC

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Here is what the WRF shows for total snowfall from the entire system (through 1 p.m. tomorrow when precip is done)...

 

wa_snowacc.33.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

I’m glad for maple valley that the WRF will be wrong. If it is correct we are missing out on the biggest snow storm in recent history 😡

I'm pretty certain (though not 100%) that the WRF has a bias with showing east winds eating up too much moisture. I can't remember who mentioned it, but I feel like it's been said a couple times here.

At any rate, I will trust the Euro over the WRF any day of the week. Never been a huge fan of that model to begin with.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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5 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

I’m glad for maple valley that the WRF will be wrong. If it is correct we are missing out on the biggest snow storm in recent history 😡

Looking at the close up view, it still shows us getting 4-6 inches. I would think that is a worst case scenario at this point. Even the 12z 3km NAM, which has been a stickler with showing us only getting 1-3 inches, was a bit better than previous runs.

Bottom line, there is a clear trend on recent model runs to increase precip amounts. That can only help us. That, and we still have the Euro firmly on our side and it hasn't blinked with our totals out here once. That counts for something.

ww_snow24.36.0000.gif

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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blowing messy light snow with a little mix has picked up here. 6z euro suggests we get another 1" or so here by early afternoon so curious to see what actually happens. Radar looks ok. Slight underperform here so far compared to models. Maybe 1-1.5" or so.

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14 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

I'm going to have a T-shirt made that says, "I beat the warm nose".  Now that being said, I had 34f and rain until 6pm when temps started creeping down again.  By 7 I had 33 with sleet so I knew the upper levels had cooled.  By 9 I was at 32 and tiny flakes starting to mix in when at 9:30.  .  .  . my power went out.  Lost all my floodlights over the creek.  We ended up going to sleep and never saw a flake fall.  So, if you don't see any flakes fall, did they really fall?  Ended up with half inch.  Right now, 29 with light rain mist/drizzle.  What will tonight bring?  Another warm nose?  Probably. This is the same one Andrew is under.

IMG_3087.HEIC 2.65 MB · 3 downloads IMG_3091.HEIC 3.24 MB · 1 download IMG_3092.HEIC 3.78 MB · 1 download IMG_3093.HEIC 4.45 MB · 1 download

We never turned to snow last night, just a little sleet. So you really lucked out! 

Very defined warm layer between 3-5K' this morning. Horse Creek was 19 at 2a, now 32 (3400'). 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The main shield that will bring our snow is still well offshore.

 

sat 2-12.png

I know, doesn’t look too far away. I understand that first impulse isn’t the main band. I think it’ll arrive earlier. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We never turned to snow last night, just a little sleet. So you really lucked out! 

Very defined warm layer between 3-5K' this morning. Horse Creek was 19 at 2a, now 32 (3400'). 

 

That's  quite a warm layer.  I've had drizzle all morning at 29f.  Round two tonight or will we win that battle with some colder air aloft?  If not, gonna get real messy. 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I honestly think predicted amounts By NWS Are to light. For many places.  

Yeah I agree. Especially in the south sound and Olympia in particular. I think the snow total is probably a little low at my house too. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I agree. Especially in the south sound and Olympia in particular. I think the snow total is probably a little low at my house too. 

We can pull off these amounts with a overrunning front but this will be much more powerful with the low of that strength coming into the sweet spot. I'd add 4-6 inches to the NWS map.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, Prairiedog said:

That's  quite a warm layer.  I've had drizzle all morning at 29f.  Round two tonight or will we win that battle with some colder air aloft?  If not, gonna get real messy. 

You will definitely be mostly ZR until early tomorrow morning, then if the GFS is right, you may switch to snow for a bit. That switch may happen here, we'll see. 

We have a nice glaze with mist falling. Hopefully we can bump to 33-34 by early afternoon so things don't build up to much.

image.jpeg.43134ace902fee9d1d34dee420afffaf.jpeg

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We can pull off these amounts with a overrunning front but this will be much more powerful with the low of that strength coming into the sweet spot. I'd add 4-6 inches to the NWS map.

Crazy many places in Olympia already got a significant snow yesterday. They could have some truly incredible totals there on top of yesterday. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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3 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

That's  quite a warm layer.  I've had drizzle all morning at 29f.  Round two tonight or will we win that battle with some colder air aloft?  If not, gonna get real messy. 

 

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We never turned to snow last night, just a little sleet. So you really lucked out! 

Very defined warm layer between 3-5K' this morning. Horse Creek was 19 at 2a, now 32 (3400'). 

 

Have a friend that lives on top of Chehalem Mtn at about 1.500ft across from you.  Same story as you.  Mostly ZR and sleet. 

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Looking ahead, the GFS has been pretty consistent showing a very wet system late in the week. This run dumps about 2" of rain in a 24 hour period from EUG-SLE. Followed by tons of mountain snow and some pretty low snow levels. 

Further out, there has been a pretty strong signal for a cold trough with potential lowland snow flirtations a few days later. I think winter is going to stick around a while. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_46.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is what the WRF shows for total snowfall from the entire system (through 1 p.m. tomorrow when precip is done)...

 

wa_snowacc.33.0000.gif

That hurts my heart tim.

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The Canadian looks just a bit snowy up here. 5" by Sunday morning, 9" by Monday morning, 14" by Tuesday morning. What I would give to see this verify.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Cold air means business. 18°/-3° in Lynden, 9°/-2° in Hope!

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looking at the close up view, it still shows us getting 4-6 inches. I would think that is a worst case scenario at this point. Even the 12z 3km NAM, which has been a stickler with showing us only getting 1-3 inches, was a bit better than previous runs.

Bottom line, there is a clear trend on recent model runs to increase precip amounts. That can only help us. That, and we still have the Euro firmly on our side and it hasn't blinked with our totals out here once. That counts for something.

ww_snow24.36.0000.gif

 The peninsula looks great and I am in purple.  But, I don't trust this model.  It is out on it's own a lot of the time.  I hope your guys wind doesn't ruin it up North and East of me for you. I am hopeful we have some stray moisture flow through today before the real storm tonight.

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Looks like we finally get that SE ridge by the end of February. 

gfs_z500a_namer_56.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Man, people in the foothills are spooked on Twitter. They think we will get nothing because some wawx folks started screaming yesterday that the east wind will eat everything.

FWIW, the 12z GEM moved towards the Euro for totals out here. Doesn't show it being as much of a problem as previous runs. 

Keep in mind, this is only through 4AM Sunday. It shows more after this for Sunday PM.

2021-02-12 08_57_31-Window.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Back to mostly snow now after a period of mostly sleet. Gonna be that kind of a day as precip rates fluctuate.

Looks like we're a little over 2" now.

I think folks up in Clark County could still end up with 6-10" if this all works out right. Starting to put the pieces together on a classic late blooming Nina winter. 

Just need to have some early March anafront action for our friends down in Eugene to put a cap on it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

UKMET improvement over last night.  Area of 12 inches (10:1 ratio) over Victoria. 

That’s nice.
 

UKmet has been all over the place. Must be catching up. Last night it showed nothing up north I thought. 

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