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Part II: February 2021 PacNW

iFred
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Posted by iFred,

Hello new folks reading this! Take the time to register and join in the conversation.
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Posted by iFred,

If you're are or were a professional met, an NWS spotter, or a part of CANWARN and are ok with other people knowing, please send me a DM
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Posted by iFred,

If you're interested in helping the weather community with this storm, there are two things you can do. 1) Get the mPING app from NOAA and use it to report if you are or are not seeing snow. - https://mping.nssl.noaa.gov/ You can also browse the mPING returns here - https://mping.ou.edu/display/ 2) Take pictures of the snow! Use a ruler or tape measurer and describe the general location and time that you took the picture. After the fact, meteorologists will use the data from your rep
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wxmet

wxmet 2015

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This Euro run is great. I think the forecast by some other mets for 4"-6" is too conservative and that this will be a top 5 snow event. I'm thinking 8"-12" at KSEA with locally higher amounts further west towards the Sound.

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wxmet

I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

Austin Wright

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

wx_statman

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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SnowChild

SnowChild 61

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

This Euro run is great. I think the forecast by some other mets for 4"-6" is too conservative and that this will be a top 5 snow event. I'm thinking 8"-12" at KSEA with locally higher amounts further west towards the Sound.

Really liking the snow for Sunday as well. It will make up for yesterday’s dud. 

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Jesse

Jesse 9378

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7 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

We have had a good amount of snow too between the sleet since midnight last night. 

Are you still getting snow? If you are most of the metro area is looking good. You are our canary in the coalmine!!

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GobBluth

GobBluth 277

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I've mentioned this before, but in this pattern what does the snow level really count for and why is it such a crutch for the NWS PDX?? 

Snow, mainly after 4pm. Snow level 2400 feet lowering to 500 feet. High near 30. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

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Skagit Weather

Skagit Weather 666

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Pretty happy with the Euro. Added another inch for here from the 00z and looks like if the cold air sticks around for just slightly longer we could have upwards of a foot (although wouldn't be surprised if it's scoured out slightly earlier as well). Only one or two more model runs before the snow starts for the North Sound!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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wxmet

wxmet 2015

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The ECMWF made a big jump south with the low on Monday. It would not take much  more southern shifts for that also to become yet another snow storm.

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Cloud

Cloud 1543

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Not exactly encouraging news for people east of 405, BUT take it as a grain of salt since it’s the UW model (with no other support) which is usually a bit too optimistic with the easterlies.

 

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Jesse

Jesse 9378

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Nice to see cold air holding on well into Monday on this run.

Crazy trends considering every run has moved the low another 50 miles north the last three days.

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FroYoBro

FroYoBro 2706

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Just now, Jesse said:

Are you still getting snow? If you are most of the metro area is looking good. You are our canary in the coalmine!!

It was snow earlier this morning. Unfortunately it looks pretty sleety at the moment. Probably switch between snow and sleet here throughout this storm. 

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SnowChild

SnowChild 61

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Just now, Cloud said:

Not exactly encouraging news for people east of 405, BUT take it as a grain of salt since it’s the UW model (with no other support) which is usually a bit too optimistic with the easterlies.

 

Yuck. I don’t trust those over the ECMWF though. Let’s hope those east winds don’t kill us. 

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Esquimalt

Esquimalt 542

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Just now, wxmet said:

The ECMWF made a big jump south with the low on Monday. It would not take much  more southern shifts for that also to become yet another snow storm.

Do you know why the weathermodels.com map shows less snow than the weatherbell map here? Which is better quality? 

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wxmet

wxmet 2015

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1 minute ago, Esquimalt said:

Do you know why the weathermodels.com map shows less snow than the weatherbell map here? Which is better quality? 

I'm not sure why there is a difference. Maybe Maue changed up the algorithm a little bit when he moved to weathermodels.com but I thought the Kuchera was direct model output so who knows.

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1 minute ago, SnowChild said:

Yuck. I don’t trust those over the ECMWF though. Let’s hope those east winds don’t kill us. 

If precip rates are as shown, there’s no need to worry... this system looks quite juicy. 

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TT-SEA

TT-SEA 4576

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Adding it all up... total snow through Tuesday morning.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3476800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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nwsnow

nwsnow 2771

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Pretty underwhelming here so far. A half inch on roads and an inch or so on other surfaces. Light snow/sleet mix at the moment. Hopefully a better performance today into tomorrow if I can stay as mostly snow.

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JBolin

JBolin 1111

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is total precipitation through Sunday afternoon... you can do your own conversions!

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-3347200.png

Holy****

Any upslope locations are going to get hammered, HARD!

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Jesse

Jesse 9378

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6 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Pretty underwhelming here so far. A half inch on roads and an inch or so on other surfaces. Light snow/sleet mix at the moment. Hopefully a better performance today into tomorrow if I can stay as mostly snow.

That's too bad. It's absolutely dumping here now. Hopefully the snow/sleet mix can change back to full snow for you once heavier radar returns move back over later today.

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Omegaraptor

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Are you still getting snow? If you are most of the metro area is looking good. You are our canary in the coalmine!!

Getting light snow here right now. Not sure how far I live from @FroYoBro but it can't be very far.

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nwsnow

nwsnow 2771

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

That's too bad. It's absolutely dumping here now. Hopefully it snow/sleet mix can change back to full snow for you once heavier radar returns move back over later today.

 

Yeah radar is looking much better east of me. Hopefully these stronger echoes coming from the west are about to improve things here soon. 

image.thumb.png.b33a1320233f4200e81b5d9f5e37fcea.png

 

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snow_wizard

snow_wizard 12257

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You have to love that 12z ECMWF especially if you live in Seattle.  Nice to see the Sunday precip being pretty much all snow now.  Looking at the dew point maps it appears Sunday will stay totally frozen with no drippiness.

The sting of yesterday is rapidly wearing off.  Man I was pissed!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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MR.SNOWMIZER

MR.SNOWMIZER 7082

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Just now, joaqweri said:

image.thumb.png.25bf8d0023664856f02fde7fdf5190ab.png12z euro certainly has the low making landfall further north than what would be ideal, but not too terribly far north

That is kinda scary. Any further north and Seattle would be in Trouble

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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FroYoBro

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Getting light snow here right now. Not sure how far I live from @FroYoBro but it can't be very far.

Yeah, it actually changed to snow after I wrote that. It just keeps changing back and forth where I live. Just depends on the precip intensity I guess. 

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TT-SEA

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have to love that 12z ECMWF especially if you live in Seattle.  Nice to see the Sunday precip being pretty much all snow now.  Looking at the dew point maps it appears Sunday will stay totally frozen with no drippiness.

The sting of yesterday is rapidly wearing off.  Man I was pissed!

Dude... you knew what was going to happen yesterday.    Not sure what else you expected.  

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Cloud

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have to love that 12z ECMWF especially if you live in Seattle.  Nice to see the Sunday precip being pretty much all snow now.  Looking at the dew point maps it appears Sunday will stay totally frozen with no drippiness.

The sting of yesterday is rapidly wearing off.  Man I was pissed!

Yesterday sucked for my area too. Ended up with a trace that ended up being all gone by the time precip stopped. Not because it warmed up but because the wind was whipping around eating the accumulation away. 

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OysterPrintout

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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

That's too bad. It's absolutely dumping here now. Hopefully the snow/sleet mix can change back to full snow for you once heavier radar returns move back over later today.

Yeah really coming down here right now too with radar looking pretty good over the next hour. Crazy how close this is for everyone and hoping our wash co friends can get in on a little more consistent action.

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Acer

Acer 994

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Currently 31, DP25.  Just took a tape measure out to the deck and still at 0.00" snow.  I'll keep you posted of course.

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Jesse

Jesse 9378

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That is kinda scary. Any further north and Seattle would be in Trouble

The fact that it looks to stay mostly offshore and slowly fill without moving strongly inland is key and will keep the western lowlands in the cold air. That matters more than a couple dozen mile jog north/south at this stage with this system.

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DRG

DRG 25

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Been snowing pretty steadily since about 8:30 this morning (SE PDX).  Started out as sleet for a bit but switched over to snow after about a half hour.  Temp 23.8 with DP 22.  Probably a fat 3" on the ground right now after waking up with about 2".  Radar looks like this will continue for a bit.  So F-in stoked for round 2 later on...

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iFred

iFred 5251

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dude... you knew what was going to happen yesterday.    Not sure what else you expected.  

Imagine how mad he is going to be when it changes to rain Sunday night with the warm up. Thankfully you’ll be here to help him out.

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Weatherwithouther

Weatherwithouther 23

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I started my morning at about 5 am and the temp was about 25 degrees. We have cooled off since day break here in SW Gresham. The snow is really coming down and with the wind it is reducing the viability due to blowing snow. I can imagine it will get a lot worse.

20210212_101932.jpg

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TT-SEA

TT-SEA 4576

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Just now, iFred said:

Imagine how mad he is going to be when it changes to rain Sunday night was we warm up. Thankfully you’ll be here to help him out.

He won't be mad on Sunday regardless... given what will happen between now and then.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jginmartini

Jginmartini 4007

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3 minutes ago, Weatherwithouther said:

I started my morning at about 5 am and the temp was about 25 degrees. We have cooled off since day break here in SW Gresham. The snow is really coming down and with the wind it is reducing the viability due to blowing snow. I can imagine it will get a lot worse.

20210212_101932.jpg

Got to love the Gorge. The rest of the world warms up while it keeps you chilled.   Enjoy

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snow_wizard

snow_wizard 12257

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For the Seattle people worried about the east wind killing us again.  A Central WA Coast landfall makes the east wind MUCH less of a problem.  Besides that we have way more moisture with this system.

I still say yesterday was an unusually bad screwing given what we had to work with.  Yesterday did have strong northerly gradients east of the Cascades which admittedly is a bad scenario for this particular area.  That won't be there with this system.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Cjmessling

Cjmessling 64

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So I ended up visiting my in laws in Bend. We got about 4-5” with yesterday’s storm and hoping for a little more tonight. Woke up yesterday and it was 31 at 7am. Temp dropped all day and was 14 by 4pm! Never have witnessed something like that in person. Currently about 15 after a low around 10. 
 

here’s my pup living his best life this morning as the sun is out

5FA65134-1DD1-45C2-A947-D1AFA5FF0B04.jpeg

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