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1 minute ago, SnowChild said:

The snow is allergic to eastern foothills. I see sunshine now in maple valley!! 🥵

Because the radar is misleading... as it often is ahead of big rain events too with lots of virga.    It means nothing for tonight though.   The real moisture is approaching the coast now.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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7 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Nam not looking great down here

It hasn't for a couple days. The model of choice for south Vancouver Island!

I wouldn't sweat it too much with both the GFS and Euro along with other models showing a decent event for the north and east metro tonight into tomorrow.

My guess is that the NAM is struggling with the depth of the cold air over greater Portland.

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Ah ha!  I see why things have trended colder.  On the 12z EPS you can see the PV lobe over southern BC has retracted more slowly than originally expected.  That keeps everything a bit more suppressed during the crucial period, and results in a slower warm up.

The EPS has settled on a Central WA Coast landfall for the low it appears.  Fun times are coming.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, wxmet said:

Had to go to three different stores (sold out everywhere!) but was able to grab the last saucer for sledding. Definitely ready for this event to get started!

I think this is video of you with it? 😉

16FD36E8-EDDA-4854-A6A5-35AB4B1C34DD.gif

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9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Getting some sleet mixing in here for the first time since yesterday evening.

Still all snow here. How much snow have you gotten?

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5 minutes ago, SorboTheGeek said:

I keep reading this as “Snow Replies.”  ❄️

0AA60072-4777-4576-9495-387C3DC639E4.jpeg

That had better look a lot better tomorrow!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Power just came back on! At least I am able to say this event delivered significant winter weather to my backyard. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Got my wish with work being canceled 😁

Amazon cancels work?! My diet pills were supposed to arrive today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Too bad there is just no way to trust the NAM.  Sometimes it does well and sometimes it doesn't.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Still all snow here. How much snow have you gotten?

About three inches.  Took forever to get its act together but now that every  is flocked it’s piled up pretty fast.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

About three inches.  Took forever to get its act together but now that every  is flocked it’s piled up pretty fast.

Same here. Although I haven't measured for awhile so it could be more now.

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Mason County is really filling on the radar now.  I think this is going to begin early.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX holding at 26 at noon on February 12th with light precip.  That’s impressive.

GFS wasn't as nuts as you thought.  I had a feeling those very low dps were going to do the trick down there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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If Scott is onto something with the 1950 comparison and JAYA also saying it will be a top tier event. Let us believe history is about to be made for us all. Let us enjoy this in all its glory******************** A Winter Wonderland

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Just now, wxmet said:

NAM is 15.2” at KSEA by Saturday evening with Kuchera. Heaviest amounts appear to be west of I-5.

surprising that it backs off a bit on south sound totals, though still totaling over a foot around olympia

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Same here. Although I haven't measured for awhile so it could be more now.

Meanwhile several miles (SSE?) of you I've got about 6" and it's snowing heavily.

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11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Today feels like 12/20/2008.

Except I was driving on the equivalent to a frozen cow pasture on all of the area roads including I-5 and fighting Christmas/storm prep traffic! That day was insane! Also felt like we were driving up in the mountains since the plowed snow on the sides of the roads were becoming walls. But yeah minus the bare ground up here it feels quite similar! 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

About three inches.  Took forever to get its act together but now that every  is flocked it’s piled up pretty fast.

Any theories on why the precip has consistently been heavier further east this morning? Downtown and areas east and north from there seem to be getting much heavier stuff than this side of town.

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FWIW the NAM is hours too slow in showing precip off the WA Coast.  Good sign!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

PDX holding at 26 at noon on February 12th with light precip.  That’s impressive.

The low level cold with this has greatly exceeded my expectations. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Serious question. Has a Kuchera map ever verified? lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Except I was driving on the equivalent to a frozen cow pasture on all of the area roads including I-5 and fighting Christmas/storm prep traffic! That day was insane! Also felt like we were driving up in the mountains since the plowed snow on the sides of the roads were becoming walls. But yeah minus the bare ground up here it feels quite similar! 

I cannot remember the exact date but in between those snow storms I remember driving to the Sears at Everett Mall conducting Christmas shopping and the car was bouncing all over the place in the frozen ice with a temperature reading in the mid teens, that is something that I wish to see again.

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Up to 41 in Creswell, 48 now at Newport. I hope SLE can hang on til midnight for a sub-freezing high. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

NAM remains the stickler in the mud showing the east wind greatly affecting the snow totals on the eastside.

Sticking with the Euro on this one. Hope NAM is wrong.

 

nam-nest-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-3275200.png

Lol has it ever been right?

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5 minutes ago, joaqweri said:

still another 2hrs or so until the 18z GFS comes out, lets hope

I think we'll do very well with that Central Coast landfall.  I know from experience there is little precip inhibition here with that track.  Besides this system has a lot of baroclinicity and much more moisture than the last one.  This could be a great one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, The Blob said:

They do, they tried their hardest to make us work through the smoke from the fires

I was evacuated for 8 days, when I got home packages had been delivered. No joke. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NAM remains the stickler in the mud showing the east wind greatly affecting the snow totals on the eastside.

Sticking with the Euro on this one. Hope NAM is wrong.

 

nam-nest-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-3275200.png

I’m in the Pepto!!!! Woo Hoo!! 

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6 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Any theories on why the precip has consistently been heavier further east this morning? Downtown and areas east and north from there seem to be getting much heavier stuff than this side of town.

Only thing I can think of is the added lift as the WAA overrides the dome in a baroclinic setup.  I think the depth of the outflow has to be just right for it to work. Any deeper and we’d probably see the opposite happen.  The Larch station near me is a great indicator as once it goes into dry advection, precip rates east of I-205 usually start taking a hit.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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What is the deal with the large difference between totals from Everett to Marysville. I get that it is thinking east winds but why would it be so much stronger in that one spot than right below it? 

196262035_ScreenShot2021-02-12at12_18_50PM.png.e79964face7a83868c1cdfdc9e954f52.png

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BTW...even what the NAM is showing for this area is nothing to scoff at.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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