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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Serious question. Has a Kuchera map ever verified? lol

It did up here in the central sound in 2019, several area/s around W. Sea saw upwards of 17" in places

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I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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52 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Looks like Salem area may potentially have their worst ice storm since January 1942.  Thoughts on this from anyone living there?

Already a few trees down in West Salem. Still 29.4f at Noon with a slight northerly breeze

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1 minute ago, Shawn344 said:

What is the deal with the large difference between totals from Everett to Marysville. I get that it is thinking east winds but why would it be so much stronger in that one spot than right below it? 

196262035_ScreenShot2021-02-12at12_18_50PM.png.e79964face7a83868c1cdfdc9e954f52.png

Snohomish / Skykomish River valley.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NAM remains the stickler in the mud showing the east wind greatly affecting the snow totals on the eastside.

Sticking with the Euro on this one. Hope NAM is wrong.

 

nam-nest-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-3275200.png

I’ll take it. Showing 16+ In northwest seattle. 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Only thing I can think of is the added lift as the WAA overrides the dome in a baroclinic setup.  I think the depth of the outflow has to be just right for it to work. Any deeper and we’d probably see the opposite happen.  The Larch station near me is a great indicator as once it goes into dry advection, precip rates east of I-205 usually start taking a hit.

Great analysis.  There are cases I've seen here where the east wind actually enhances preip rates.  Obviously hoping for that tonight!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

I cannot remember the exact date but in between those snow storms I remember driving to the Sears at Everett Mall conducting Christmas shopping and the car was bouncing all over the place in the frozen ice with a temperature reading in the mid teens, that is something that I wish to see again.

The road crews back then had a real tough time with that 3 week stretch, it was insane how frozen chunky rutty ice, etc the roads were! 

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3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Skies getting darker here as the column saturates.

Darker here too.  This is certainly ahead of schedule by the looks of the radar.  Temp is dropping again.  Never got above 30 today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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On my drive back this morning from Bellingham I was listening to Kiro 97.3 and the National CBS news came on at the top of the hour and they had a segment of the winter storm about to hit us, they specifically said that Seattle could have their biggest snowstorm in the last 35yrs...? 

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No description available.Good news is we are right around freezing, its probably not going to accumulate much more over the next few hours. We'll see what happens tonight, if stay at or drop below freezing, could get really ugly. I imagine we already have enough ice to start hearing some popping once things warm up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

On my drive back this morning from Bellingham I was listening to Kiro 97.3 and the National CBS news came on at the top of the hour and they had a segment of the winter storm about to hit us and they specifically said that Seattle could have their biggest snowstorm in the last 35yrs...? 

WTF is wxstatman to answer this?

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The road crews back then had a real tough time with that 3 week stretch, it was insane how frozen chunky rutty ice, etc the roads were! 

I remember driving on I205 in Portland and switching lanes you had to almost ram your car out of the rut. They had road graders out on the PDX freeways to cut the ruts in the ice down. 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Darker here too.  This is certainly ahead of schedule by the looks of the radar.  Temp is dropping again.  Never got above 30 today.

Looks like stronger echos popping up in the south sound now as well. 

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17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NAM remains the stickler in the mud showing the east wind greatly affecting the snow totals on the eastside.

Sticking with the Euro on this one. Hope NAM is wrong.

 

nam-nest-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-3275200.png

Wait, this can't be legit. It shows me being the biggest winner of all, east of the Sound!

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17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Only thing I can think of is the added lift as the WAA overrides the dome in a baroclinic setup.  I think the depth of the outflow has to be just right for it to work. Any deeper and we’d probably see the opposite happen.  The Larch station near me is a great indicator as once it goes into dry advection, precip rates east of I-205 usually start taking a hit.

Well at least the precip problem will be solved for me tonight but not sure the airmass will still support snow. Would love to avoid the ZR.

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32 here at 12:30...we might stay below freezing but I think we will eventually budge to 33 before dropping back down. Occasionally seeing a couple snowflakes but nothing interesting yet. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Well at least the precip problem will be solved for me tonight but not sure the airmass will still support snow. Would love to avoid the ZR.

only thing I can think is the precip rates drags down the temps in the 925mb layer to keep all snow

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Great analysis.  There are cases I've seen here where the east wind actually enhances preip rates.  Obviously hoping for that tonight!

I’ve been enjoying reading the interpretations of how the east winds will affect snow totals overnight. The professionals seem split, with some quite adamant that it will pulverize snow totals (see below). I suppose we’ll know when we wake up in the morning, but it’s fun to read about it until then. Take a bunch of known meteorological scenarios, mix them all into one event and out pops quite a range of solutions. 
 

Winds have been noticeable up here all morning already. 

07376326-AF17-4E97-9C12-1A092B9D095B.jpeg

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It's Friday and the region is about to see some of the biggest snow amounts since all the way back in Feb '19, you basterd's better stay up and post pics with  your kids, wives, husbands, dogs, cats, the occasional llama, etc. 

I want some goddamn happiness permeating this board tonight. 

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10 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Thing of beauty

nam-218-all-nw-instant_ptype-1613152800-1613196000-1613271600-40.gif

Wonderful track but almost too close for comfort. Like how it slides southeast giving us more precip and not warming up to much. No more north!!

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Just now, JBolin said:

It's Friday and the region is about to see some of the biggest snow amounts since all the way back in Feb '19, you basterd's better stay up and post pics with  your kids, wives, husbands, dogs, cats, the occasional llama, etc. 

I want some goddamn happiness permeating this board tonight. 

Not me. I’m going bed at my standard time. The fun is not going to get up here until Saturday morning, anyhow.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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I wonder how much PDX is going to officially record with this event. I would like to see them go 6"+, but it seems like that would be a tall order. Either way, significant lowland events in:

2011

2014

2017

2018

2019

2021

Pretty incredible. 

It was also the most "wintry" month of the winter up here last year. I think Mossman had some snow too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

I’ve been enjoying reading the interpretations of how the east winds will affect snow totals overnight. The professionals seem split, with some quite adamant that it will pulverize snow totals (see below). I suppose we’ll know when we wake up in the morning, but it’s fun to read about it until then. Take a bunch of known meteorological scenarios, mix them all into one event and out pops quite a range of solutions. 
 

Winds have been noticeable up here all morning already. 

07376326-AF17-4E97-9C12-1A092B9D095B.jpeg

There won't be any part of King County that gets no snow from this. That's a pretty silly statement.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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13 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

only thing I can think is the precip rates drags down the temps in the 925mb layer to keep all snow

Yep, high precip rate is pretty much our best hope of staying all or mostly snow. Though FYI the warming is actually above 925mb. Looks like it will be from 850-900mb.

Whatever falls, there will be a lot of it falling

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nw.png

ecmwf_full_2021021212_018_45.5--123.0.png

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4 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Where at? I'm not seeing it

RadarScope. Actually this looks like extreme northern Olympia but very close to the Kitsap Peninsula nonetheless

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Former lurker, hi everyone. 26 degrees in SW PDX at about 400ft in west hills.  Have about 4 in of snow, has picked up in last 30 min. Just now tapered off. Drove to Wilsonville at 7am for work, left about 10am and it got dicey on some of the hills getting back home. Pics from about 11:00am.

IMG_1802.JPEG

IMG_1803.JPEG

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5 minutes ago, wxmet said:

mPing report of snow on the Kitsap Peninsula. Only a matter of time 

Yeah radar returns are really increasing SW of here in Mason county moving NE. Just a flake here and there but I think the snows going to be ramping up soon. Obviously the heaviest stuff probably won’t be til this evening. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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7 minutes ago, JBolin said:

It's Friday and the region is about to see some of the biggest snow amounts since all the way back in Feb '19, you basterd's better stay up and post pics with  your kids, wives, husbands, dogs, cats, the occasional llama, etc. 

I want some goddamn happiness permeating this board tonight. 

I’m going to be up knocking snow off my carport all night that cannot take snow load...I need to get actual metal roof sturdy carport this summer. 

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Just now, MossMan said:

I’m going to be up knocking snow off my carport all night that cannot take snow load...I need to get actual metal roof sturdy carport this summer. 

Yikes, be careful out there

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My gut tells me this low might track further north than shown. I could see it coming ashore near forks. 

Lol you’ve been saying south for days and then the euro shifts it south and now you think north 😂

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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