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I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Things are escalating quickly here.

Yeah radars staring to light up now starting to move northward too in Puget sound. Fun 24 hours coming up. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02”

Warmest high temp-84

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol you’ve been saying south for days and then the euro shifts it south and now you think north 😂

I have many memories in the old day's of this happing lol.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, snow maniac said:

Radar is showing snow over me but it’s not making it to the ground

Give it some time I imagine it won’t be much longer. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02”

Warmest high temp-84

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My gut tells me this low might track further north than shown. I could see it coming ashore near forks. 

I don’t think it will. Look at the attached image and the high pressure gradients favor pushing the low southeast but there is that gap to the east of the high that could aid in bringing the low further north. 

3536AD11-D9A3-419D-A73E-6DAECDAE418C.jpeg

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1 minute ago, snow maniac said:

Radar is showing snow over me but it’s not making it to the ground

Me and this guy grew up together and somewhere we have pics of a giant ice creation we made with the hose and all my moms trees and shrubs. December 1990!

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, MossMan said:

Or 5 triple shots of Crown! C’MON!!!

I’m going to take a shot for each inch of snow that falls here tonight lol

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02”

Warmest high temp-84

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Radar looks really serious now.  Since the clouds have thickened the temp has fallen a degree here.  Subfreezing high!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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In all honesty this will be the best period of 24 hr snow some of the younger people here or people who have not lived here there whole life. This one might be very historical. Might be one of the top 3 snowiest 72hr period in a very long long time.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Cliff Mass is planning to update Shortly!! 
Hopefully he’s not on team Snowmizer!! 😂

It's just me being a weenie. At first look it would seem like a northern track but when you look at the pressure maps you see why it is pushed south. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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That low is just stalling out there pumping moisture while that small low off the coast (or I guess I should say high pressure to the north and east)helping to keep the cold in place. 

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11 minutes ago, Shawn344 said:

I’ll continue the game here. Just me and my 3 inches vibing out 

F995ECF8-66F8-4E6D-BD8A-E911C3D751CC.jpeg

Might as well bite as well 🤣. Would honestly be thrilled if this verified, but there's a pretty strong gradient...

snowmap_update.jpg.13271bd6382f006f99a30ae97e798712.jpg

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

In all honesty this will be the best period of 24 hr snow some of the younger people here or people who have not lived here there whole life. This one might be very historical. Might be one of the top 3 snowiest 72hr period in a very long long time.

Likely won’t be as wowing as 1/10/17 down here, but to be honest I doubt any storm could ever compare to the sheer bravado of that one. May be more impactful though.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cliff Mass is planning to update Shortly!! 
Hopefully he’s not on team Snowmizer!! 😂

A track north of the what the ECMWF shows is unlikely.  That PV lobe is still suppressing things.  The power of that cold air in BC is huge.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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This is looking to be amazing for my area. Very rare to have setups where the east winds are strong enough to keep the air cold but not enough to eat up the moisture.  99/100 the east lowlands area the place to be for snow storms. 

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Nicer colors on the radar than yesterday.  Looks pretty real.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Can't believe it has dropped back to 29.  Loving the cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Up to about 4" of snow here, still coming down steadily. Mixing with sleet at times still but snowy enough that that's not a big deal!

Sleet is way better than ZR.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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43 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Actually I’m almost in the creamy white!!! I will post a pic of me kissing my snowplow if that happens! 

24ECBF46-41F5-4501-BF8A-49D711B1FEA0.jpeg

If you keep zooming in and draw smaller circles we will eventually be able to locate your house! 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Up to about 4" of snow here, still coming down steadily. Mixing with sleet at times still but snowy enough that that's not a big deal!

What are your thoughts for precip type later tonight into tomorrow?

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

I am hoping for 10 additional inches of accumulation to get to 13 total on the ground.

what is the deepest there ever for you?

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

On my drive back this morning from Bellingham I was listening to Kiro 97.3 and the National CBS news came on at the top of the hour and they had a segment of the winter storm about to hit us, they specifically said that Seattle could have their biggest snowstorm in the last 35yrs...? 

I believe most of Seattle got around 10-14" with the second Dec 1996 storm (though not officially recorded). If SEA records over 10", they are up against that one plus:

- one of the Nov 1985 storms dumped around 9-10", spread out over 2 days

- Feb 1990 saw just under 10" from one storm

- Dec 1974 the same

- Jan 1972 had an 11.4" storm

- I believe the end of Dec 1968 storm dumped about 11" total

Other than that, it's the Jan 1969 and Jan 1950 big boys that are tops for the airport era. If SEA records over a foot, will probably be the biggest snowstorm for them officially since 1969.

Tim's hot girl summer.

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

18z rgem looking perfect with low track still.

I think a good track is pretty well locked in now.  Betting the 18z GFS will be just a bit north of the 12z.

The big story is much more moisture is already streaming in than many models had anticipated.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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56 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Serious question. Has a Kuchera map ever verified? lol

Way better than the 10:1 maps, at least in areas where the temperature is below 30.  NWS is using an 18:1 ratio for our snow predictions, which is almost twice the 10:1 ratio.   But the kuchera maps are probably overdoing it, especially west side.

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I've been here since 2013, deepest i've ever seen was 5-6" in feb 2019. I go out and measure when snow falls, but i don't have a yard to put a board out in, i usually have to measure on my deck which has a tree right over it. measured 5.5" on a woodstack at a construction site near my house in feb 2019.

hoMm-ErkTEbI9TtTtmkAhApSzytwd23uCiKDPklvDVCrv8Q6w83jHIUFQNrQz3tWLhGN-eEq_4hliW7bo0c5NLWJ08N54RkZfIwHgBAuRAGAiP5RRzLXcWSh9aXGE2oOYgrugOJg2HsnODeORk4vilqSwZmhlb4XgdzXrrwi9Il884vMB6aRpg3uGizn1g6OMP02lkjY_d8LbcaxkVy98dzVSjKDCOT0IRt0XKOzJYD6XAbW_DGqe-MB47XUodTsBIKjlquKLQEM0kt3hDhRLr23AK0WAtlw2b1qo4FYOb9XpDo5fzAF18_uItIYJA0ZIsicYYSiHPX3CgQShp0iIYLm-pTm6j6iZtS1dHaPE8JvsxAPjPWqeK7IGVH3G5U7FUfzeKSXO99qX9v3PydkRmnsxEHUIWu9L2pzzo-nFUmli15yb1ix1sPFaZmX9iEYx08_GeO1Qso9zqslLCwWy1QIl62sDpAsU_RtAifOSvMeBRus1zxKJf_rTkJyEwiCsJnSn4b5zbEjLgKeNu6XzzU_mSTr6FcWLwWE7UwsBVY2fFr1hIuOPzKYfA4ucy9-5Cn86hsfNuatSd5w7MHg7a9TWwreZGlN5zeLY0su_bCKHUONrffJDcHGmXrrCGo5fuyHb6c0rlKLtcgGJqlVZgFhPahhSSYKt18_aTY5lJcBuqG15qkRvh6xqDV_=w727-h969-no?authuser=0

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I believe most of Seattle got around 10-14" with the second Dec 1996 storm (though not officially recorded). If SEA records over 10", they are up against that one plus:

- one of the Nov 1985 storms dumped around 9-10", spread out over 2 days

- Feb 1990 saw just under 10" from one storm

- Dec 1974 the same

- Jan 1972 had an 11.4" storm

- I believe the end of Dec 1968 storm dumped about 11" total

Other than that, it's the Jan 1969 and Jan 1950 big boys that are tops for the airport era. If SEA records over a foot, will probably be the biggest snowstorm for them officially since 1969.

 

 

 

Wow, that is some top-tier stuff if Seatac can mange that

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think a good track is pretty well locked in now.  Betting the 18z GFS will be just a bit north of the 12z.

The big story is much more moisture is already streaming in than many models had anticipated.

Pretty good trailer for the blockbuster feature film we get to enjoy later.

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5 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Looks like an impressive slow moving deformation band in the NE quadrant.

The difference between the 9 inches on the RGEM and the 16 on the NAM is the NAM tracks the low through central washington eastwards but the RGEM slides it south to oregon and then tracks east.  The NAM track is much better, albeit the RGEM is still awesome

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12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What are your thoughts for precip type later tonight into tomorrow?

Should mix with sleet a lot today, probably will briefly be the main precip mode. All levels look good by late tonight, however. Anything in that 1-8am timeframe should be snow, with a good shot at 3-6" more then.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Should mix with sleet a lot today, probably will briefly be the main precip mode. All levels look good by late tonight, however. Anything in that 1-8am timeframe should be snow, with a good shot at 3-6" more then.

I guess I will consider anything that falls as snow before midnight here gravy in that case. Still snowing hard and 25 degrees. 4-5" now with lots of drifting.

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18z NAM depicting what I thought might be possible for tonight's event: a long lasting, stabe convergence zone aimed just to the north of Seattle, similar to last night. That's something to watch for tonight.  

Whoever gets the additional banding from the convergence zone may see 12"+. 

 

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