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Most snow I ever saw on the ground was when I was living outside Monroe. I don't think I'll challenge that total tomorrow. It was around 2 feet (Christmas Day, 2008). 

Such an awesome spot with so many elements just right for snowfall. Wonder how well it'll fare up there tomorrow.

Screenshot 2021-02-12 132508.png

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I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

Posted Images

Hopefully WRF and Euro are accurate about this.  Both show me in the 8-10 inch zones and at least a few inches for most of the metro, fingers crossed. I'll be fairly happy with 4 inches of snow, some sleet and zero ZR.

or_snowacc.30.0000.gif

 

image.thumb.png.0f45bb4d8dcc072037e2ee68ca78e2b4.png

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38 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Me and this guy grew up together and somewhere we have pics of a giant ice creation we made with the hose and all my moms trees and shrubs. December 1990!

I think that's the same storm when I was a kid in Burien and we got what felt like a foot... I vividly remember my dad using an empty drawer to make snow bricks, and we built an igloo that an adult could stand in.

Also took a hammer to our above ground pool and figured out it could support our weight. Cool stuff!

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7 minutes ago, fubario said:

moderate snow falling again. is this residual moisture from yesterday, or part of the next system?

Its a blend down there.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Hopefully WRF and Euro are accurate about this.  Both show me in the 8-10 inch zones and at least a few inches for most of the metro, fingers crossed. I'll be fairly happy with 4 inches of snow, some sleet and zero ZR.

or_snowacc.30.0000.gif

 

image.thumb.png.0f45bb4d8dcc072037e2ee68ca78e2b4.png

I don't know man the NAM is a powerful thing. I'm sure its take on the column profile later today is top notch  compared to those lesser models ;)

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2 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

I think that's the same storm when I was a kid in Burien and we got what felt like a foot... I vividly remember my dad using an empty drawer to make snow bricks, and we built an igloo that an adult could stand in.

Also took a hammer to our above ground pool and figured out it could support our weight. Cool stuff!

I remember our backyard pool freezing-over a few times in the 90's in west seattle. Dec. 1990 it was at least 4" and was able to support weight. 

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23 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Way better than the 10:1 maps, at least in areas where the temperature is below 30.  NWS is using an 18:1 ratio for our snow predictions, which is almost twice the 10:1 ratio.   But the kuchera maps are probably overdoing it, especially west side.

Yeah, you get a lot of dry snow, like my friend in Central Oregon. Here a lot of our snow events are way less than 10:1 ratios. I would say our average snowfall is 7:1. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Fircrest said:

Some light snow starting here in Fircrest (Tacoma area).

Yep light snow starting here too. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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My friend at CCR in Central Oregon picked up 5.4" last night. He sent me the snow totals the Pendleton NWS posted. Looks like Pendleton got 4-6", White Salmon was the big winner with 10-12" overnight. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SnowChild said:

Just read Cliff Mass latest blog post.

I can’t believe he is relying on the WRF. He claims eastern suburbs will only receive “half an inch” 😡

Yeah, he really believes in the WRF.  He is a UW professor after all.  I'm no expert at all, but I think it will be wrong.

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18z GFS snow totals are fantastic for folks in seattle and the south sound with 10-15", unfortunately for folks out east the easterlies form a pocket of lower snow totals with 1-4". for folks up north there's still a good 6-8"

 

snku_acc.us_nw.png

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Just now, Fircrest said:

Yeah, he really believes in the WRF.  He is a UW professor after all.  I'm no expert at all, but I think it will be wrong.

Yea I have a hard time believing the WRF over the ECMWF. But after yesterday’s dissatisfaction I am not sure.
 

Of course I know that yesterday was never supposed to amount to anything. Just hard to have these easterlies killing us. 

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Just adopted a shelter dog from California a couple weeks ago, and we sadly discovered today that he is very much not a fan of snow. Sorry pup, guess you gotta go back to the pound now. I'll have none of that crap in my house.

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2 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

Just read Cliff Mass latest blog post.

I can’t believe he is relying on the WRF. He claims eastern suburbs will only receive “half an inch” 😡

Do you know more than him?

Read the range of professional opinions, look at the range of model outputs, set expectations and then see what happens and enjoy. Surprises happen*

*Surprises may include bad surprises like a half inch of snow.

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4 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Do you know more than him?

Read the range of professional opinions, look at the range of model outputs, set expectations and then see what happens and enjoy. Surprises happen*

*Surprises may include bad surprises like a half inch of snow.

Of course I don’t know as much as him. But I have been watching the WRF long enough to know it is mostly wrong! 

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Obvious this area is going to be fine.  Already seeing some flakes and very early in the game.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Do you know more than him?

Read the range of professional opinions, look at the range of model outputs, set expectations and then see what happens and enjoy. Surprises happen*

*Surprises may include bad surprises like a half inch of snow.

I know its a really bad idea to side with the WRF for surface details when the ECMWF is very different.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Mark’s thoughts: 

 

 

5A464FDB-9613-4004-A4DA-25AFD8F56939.jpeg

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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OMG on Coastal radar.  This is going to be big!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Esquimalt said:

Unfortunately the overrunning event on Monday looks way less impressive on the rgem and gfs this afternoon

Monday isn't even on my radar yet.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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About 31 here right now. If temps drop while the snow is starting, betting some places will see 15:1 ratios. I think Cliff Mass is leaning too much towards the WRF. Sure there might be a pocket of lower totals, but I don't think it will be like what the WRF is showing. Even with the east winds last night, Redmond got a good inch and there is a lot more moisture incoming tonight.

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Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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1 minute ago, Esquimalt said:

Unfortunately the overrunning event on Monday looks way less impressive on the rgem and gfs this afternoon

Yeah, I was going to say temperatures are slightly warmer and precipitation rates are perhaps slightly less. Honestly, it's so close that we might see it trend one way or the other. I'm now going into it thinking I won't get any with that system and if I do it will be a pleasant surprise.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Monday isn't even on my radar yet.

Tuesday was on your radar a couple hours ago.  ;)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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From a timing perspective... the 18Z GFS is similar to the ECMWF showing measureable precip (snow) will start after about 8 or 9 p.m. in the Seattle area.

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-3188800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Very small snowflakes starting to fall here!

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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