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28 degrees here now with just very light flurries.  Color me impressed.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I've been a part of several weather forums for the past 15 years and they more or less run the same. There is discussion among individuals with a large range in knowledge about weather and then there'

West side of Olympia as of 7 PM is up to approximately 5 inches and still snowing steadily. 

My front door in Troutdale this morning. Last night was incredible with 45-55 mph gusts for many hours. I'm on a hill around 300' directly facing east.

Posted Images

3 minutes ago, Shawn344 said:

NWS cuts my forecasted totals down to just 2-3” citing the horrid east winds 

Just wait and see.  I'm not an expert for up there, but down here I know a Central Coast landfall greatly mitigates the effects of east winds.  As Dewey pointed out earlier east wind areas were actually getting heavier precip down south.  East wind effects are extremely tricky to predict and every storm is different.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I guess the ECMWF just spreads it eastward more effectively.

The GFS and the ECMWF both showed Chris getting precip all afternoon... its part of the deformation zone from yesterday that parked itself over SW WA and NW OR.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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31 DP of 15 here. Sky really giving off that “it’s about to snow” look. Really liking my location tonight. Just far enough west where the east winds shouldn’t cut my snow totals down too much. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Announcement:

I just traded February snow and ice storm for December 1924 redux.  Basically a bunch of draft picks for a superstar next winter. Hopefully I don’t get a Greg Oden

December 1924 was a beast!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Forecast courtesy of SEA NWS. Totals seem to be following the WRF-GFS quite closely. I guess we'll just have to see in 24 hours who was right.

nws_snowforecast1.thumb.jpeg.d70688d9d11fef133d69703155a645bc.jpeg

NWS_snowforecast2.thumb.jpeg.7cd985c008e8e9dfd4d6795a58c7ef00.jpeg

NWS_snowforecast3.thumb.jpeg.35400c7fc179bca39a44ebc8b1ecb3cb.jpeg

nws_snowforecast4.thumb.jpeg.c15e8b7693a3fbe4385dfbcf35d18073.jpeg

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  • Snow 1

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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I don't remember any drying east winds during the snowstorms two February's ago. Did those storms come at us from a different trajectory?

 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

The GFS and the ECMWF both showed Chris getting precip all afternoon... its part of the deformation zone from yesterday that parked itself over SW WA and NW OR.

We'll see.  I just think the GFS looks a bit dry.  It showed nothing on the North Coast for quite a while yet.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Here is what the GFS showed from 11-2 today... 

 

 

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-3167200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Forecast courtesy of SEA NWS. Totals seem to be following the WRF-GFS quite closely. I guess we'll just have to see in 24 hours who was right.

nws_snowforecast1.thumb.jpeg.d70688d9d11fef133d69703155a645bc.jpeg

NWS_snowforecast2.thumb.jpeg.7cd985c008e8e9dfd4d6795a58c7ef00.jpeg

NWS_snowforecast3.thumb.jpeg.35400c7fc179bca39a44ebc8b1ecb3cb.jpeg

nws_snowforecast4.thumb.jpeg.c15e8b7693a3fbe4385dfbcf35d18073.jpeg

Not buying the dry EPSL look.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Here is what the GFS showed from 11-2 today... 

 

 

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-3167200.png

Shows Chris with almost nothing.  Not correct.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Forecast courtesy of SEA NWS. Totals seem to be following the WRF-GFS quite closely. I guess we'll just have to see in 24 hours who was right.

nws_snowforecast1.thumb.jpeg.d70688d9d11fef133d69703155a645bc.jpeg

NWS_snowforecast2.thumb.jpeg.7cd985c008e8e9dfd4d6795a58c7ef00.jpeg

NWS_snowforecast3.thumb.jpeg.35400c7fc179bca39a44ebc8b1ecb3cb.jpeg

nws_snowforecast4.thumb.jpeg.c15e8b7693a3fbe4385dfbcf35d18073.jpeg

Lol, they are laughably wrong with that snow map for here. 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  I just think the GFS looks a bit dry.  It showed nothing on the North Coast for quite a while yet.

And there will be lots of very light precip and virga up there initially.   That is what you are seeing on the radar now.   

Its all coming and its on schedule.   Even the GFS looks like its on track. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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41 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

What I find funny about Cliff Mass, and always have, (well... this is one of many issues I have with Mass), so, no one can deny he knows weather, especially in the Pacific Northwest, probably better than anyone. Not that he's always accurate, but, no one can deny that he lacks all the requisite knowledge.

So then he posts these Blog posts and they are always just "This is what the WRF says, so this is what is going to happen." There is no analysis. You would expect the academic would then discuss some issues that aren't easily picked up on with the models, etc. I understand he has an interest in promoting the WRF, but it just feels like, for the "known Weather Academic of the PNW" his blog posts just regurgitate what the one model says, something anyone could do.

Where's the personal touch that comes from decades of experience? 

He has the tendency to then post analyzed events then give insightful analysis on what went wrong and/or right. Wish he would do this more often prior to events.... but I think he may be afraid of getting blowbacks. I don’t think him and The Seattle Times mended after he constantly called them out in the past. The most recent was him criticizing the paper for “a massive heatwave deaths” in Seattle in 2019.
 

Perhaps rightfully so. 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Shows Chris with almost nothing.  Not correct.

It shows Chris getting measureable precip... which he is reporting is actually happening.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Don't look now, but the radar is rapidly filling in.  This looks very solid to me.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And there will be lots of very light precip and virga up there initially.   That is what you are seeing on the radar now.   

Its all coming and its on schedule.   Even the GFS looks like its on track. 

OK...we'll see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Shows Chris with almost nothing.  Not correct.

Here is a camera very close to Chris... 

 

Cosmopolis.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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When’s the heavier precip supposed to start in the valley?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It shows Chris getting measureable precip... which he is reporting is actually happening.

He had a lot more than .02 from what I've been hearing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

OK...we'll see.

My point is that the models are on track... its already 3 p.m.     Its all good.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

How about we stop the arguing over whether or not I am receiving the proper amount of precip for this timeframe, not gonna lie I am a bit flattered,   but let's just focus on the goodies coming!

Exactly it’s gonna snow either way wether it starts in a couple or a few hours doesn’t matter. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

He had a lot more than .02 from what I've been hearing.

Probably less... KHQM has only had a trace for the last few hours.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Exactly it’s gonna snow either way wether it starts in a couple or a few hour’s doesn’t matter. 

Very true... its definitely coming! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Meteorologist

Radar shows returns are increasing in intensity further north offshore as the activity pushes to the ENE.

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Well, I've been frantically encouraging my thermometer to stop warming up, but I just hit 32.1F which means I'll narrowly miss out on a second subfreezing high. I have to say it was very exciting though because it flirted with 32F for about two hours. Okay, onto the snow ⛄.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Well, I've been frantically encouraging my thermometer to stop warming up, but I just hit 32.1F which means I'll narrowly miss out on a second subfreezing high. I have to say it was very exciting though because it flirted with 32F for about two hours. Okay, onto the snow ⛄.

Can't you round down under 32.5?  ;)

  • lol 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

From another brother in Salem 

9C35D296-A788-46A5-9BE2-F2910D9D82A0.jpeg

Sleet/ZR is such a D**n waste... Especially when it’s showing subfreezing down south. 

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Still mostly snow here, maybe a little sleet mixed in. Coming down hard but judging by radar we may have a little break soon. Closing in on 5”.

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Here is a live cam on the north coast of WA... radar shows its snowing there.    

https://www.wsdot.com/traffic/Cameras/default.aspx?cam=8051

When this camera view turns white (and it definitely will) then we know the real fun is about to begin!

Medium_Queets (1).jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Sleet/ZR is such a D**n waste... Especially when it’s showing subfreezing down south. 

It’s the normal thing in this setup down there sadly. At least the sleet is white so it looks like snow.  The ZR is boring except for the pretty trees until they bust

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23 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Forecast courtesy of SEA NWS. Totals seem to be following the WRF-GFS quite closely. I guess we'll just have to see in 24 hours who was right.

nws_snowforecast1.thumb.jpeg.d70688d9d11fef133d69703155a645bc.jpeg

NWS_snowforecast2.thumb.jpeg.7cd985c008e8e9dfd4d6795a58c7ef00.jpeg

NWS_snowforecast3.thumb.jpeg.35400c7fc179bca39a44ebc8b1ecb3cb.jpeg

nws_snowforecast4.thumb.jpeg.c15e8b7693a3fbe4385dfbcf35d18073.jpeg

That is a real bummer.  I'm at 2-3"🙄

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1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Pretty concerned about that east wind up here in North Bend. It’s been ripping for a day straight. Someone tell me it’s gonna be okay... 

Sorry, it's not

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3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Like this ? 
not my best work :(

A1E883B3-9A45-4EC2-99C1-749611BE2E91.jpeg

I love tracks... nice touch!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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