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Valentines and Presidents Day Oklahoma and Mid West Smasher.


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Good trends on the models this morning for KC, Chicago, and points south and east.  @OKwx2k4 you may want to invest in a snow blower lol.  Closer to home those of us that live in Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri know it's never easy to get a good snow.  We have a different enemy this time, it's not warm air but dry air.  Good luck to all.

12z NAM

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_c.png

12z RDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_c.png

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  • Clinton changed the title to Valentines and Presidents Day Oklahoma Smasher.
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Took some pictures yesterday before and after shoveling the light and fluffy powder.  This was 30:1 ratio snow and it blew and drifted quite easily creating some beautiful drifts. That’s one of the pe

This might be the funniest thing yet. 🤣    

Pics from mom in desoto county MS. Looks like it might be lower end of forecast there, but 4-5” and still snowing. Why does she take better pics than me LOL

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good trends on the models this morning for KC, Chicago, and points south and east.  @OKwx2k4 you may want to invest in a snow blower lol.  Closer to home those of us that live in Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri know it's never easy to get a good snow.  We have a different enemy this time, it's not warm air but dry air.  Good luck to all.

12z NAM

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_c.png

12z RDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_c.png

Glad you did bc I was just coming on the comp to do the same thing!  LOL...hoping for a shift NW and the models latch onto the ULL tracking overhead.  I flipped through the 06z EPS ensembles and a lot of them show a large precip shield swinging through the MW/Lower Lakes region.  Once this energy gets into the 4 corners on Sat/Sun the models should have a good handle on this.

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4 minutes ago, Tom said:

Glad you did bc I was just coming on the comp to do the same thing!  LOL...hoping for a shift NW and the models latch onto the ULL tracking overhead.  I flipped through the 06z EPS ensembles and a lot of them show a large precip shield swinging through the MW/Lower Lakes region.  Once this energy gets into the 4 corners on Sat/Sun the models should have a good handle on this.

i hope this NW wet trend continues. sucks having all this cold and nothing but flurries coming out

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  • Clinton changed the title to Valentines and Presidents Day Oklahoma and Mid West Smasher.

I don't have any idea what I did to tick off the 12z GFS so bad, but it sure doesn't like me for some reason...🤔

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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9 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I don't have any idea what I did to tick off the 12z GFS so bad, but it sure doesn't like me for some reason...🤔

That run was just cruel.  The CMC is looking much better though.

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

That run was just cruel.  The CMC is looking much better though.

I'm refusing to look at the models, which is hard when perusing this forum.  But my willpower is strong.  As for the GFS, I haven't seen it.  But given how wrong it's been for KC weather over the last two weeks, I wouldn't base any conclusions on it.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Hits you hard!  Puts me right on the edge of the heavy.

Indeed, but you do great as well. Fun times ahead bud!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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12 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I'm refusing to look at the models, which is hard when perusing this forum.  But my willpower is strong.  As for the GFS, I haven't seen it.  But given how wrong it's been for KC weather over the last two weeks, I wouldn't base any conclusions on it.

The sun is shinning here today, I don't remember the last time we have had sunshine, must be at least 6 days.

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10 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I'm refusing to look at the models, which is hard when perusing this forum.  But my willpower is strong.  As for the GFS, I haven't seen it.  But given how wrong it's been for KC weather over the last two weeks, I wouldn't base any conclusions on it.

I've decided to "embrace the suck" as they say in the military and have fun with it. Besides, plenty of time for further shifts so who knows...😁

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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Thx for starting Clinton. I also considered Y'day but backed-off to let y'all southerners have a shot at it. Looks like we have GEM/Euro north vs GFS south. NAM in the middle? I will say that the air today has a warmer moist feel here so the squashing PV may relax just enough..

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx for starting Clinton. I also considered Y'day but backed-off to let y'all southerners have a shot at it. Looks like we have GEM/Euro north vs GFS south. NAM in the middle? I will say that the air today has a warmer moist feel here so the squashing PV may relax just enough..

 

That would be great and the models seem to be supporting that with better totals up your way.  Good luck and the storm on the heels of this one seems to be targeting the mitt also. 🙂

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Glad you did bc I was just coming on the comp to do the same thing!  LOL...hoping for a shift NW and the models latch onto the ULL tracking overhead.  I flipped through the 06z EPS ensembles and a lot of them show a large precip shield swinging through the MW/Lower Lakes region.  Once this energy gets into the 4 corners on Sat/Sun the models should have a good handle on this.

Lol. I appreciate you guys. I was just going to keep sprinkling this awesomeness all over the forum. :lol:

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@Clinton

For the 2nd storm next week, 1 model takes it so far east, that we get nothing and the other crushes SMI and other peeps that are in the path of the storm. Take a pick! Still plenty of time for that to get resolved.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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It's going back to dry for much of Iowa.  Four runs ago the Euro suddenly showed the upper energy cutting up to Iowa, which dropped a few inches here.  It was doing that because it had the PV lobe quickly getting out of the way.  However, since then the Euro has trended toward the PV hanging back further into the lakes, which leads to the new energy being weaker and also tracking farther southeast.  For any additional significant snow to fall in places like Iowa and Minnesota, the cold will have to back off.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Depressing for Michigan.  Oh well.  Enjoy it to the south and east.  Big winners there.  Midwest/GL going to get shut out, then it's almost March.  Bring on warm and  Thunderstorms.  We need a warmer, more active Spring for once!!!

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18z NAM really holds back the main energy and strengthens it.  At hr 84 it is closing in on Chicago and Michigan moving NE

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

The first piece of energy does well on it's own.  It will be interesting to see if this continues and if it can work west some over the next 24hrs.  If the NAM is correct this could be a major hit for Niko and the other SE Mich folks.

snku_acc.us_c.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Depressing for Michigan.  Oh well.  Enjoy it to the south and east.  Big winners there.  Midwest/GL going to get shut out, then it's almost March.  Bring on warm and  Thunderstorms.  We need a warmer, more active Spring for once!!!

Still waiting on a big dog here in kzoo - no snows more than 3.5 inches for any 24 hr period! Misses west, east, north, south or systems lose umph when they get here. But still more season total snowfall ive probably ever had. At least you had that 8 inch day on the 5th! 

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23 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z GFS just hates the KC area...

Yeah, just need to let it go and bury yourself in a good book...

king5.png

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace)
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+5.0)
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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

18z NAM really holds back the main energy and strengthens it.  At hr 84 it is closing in on Chicago and Michigan moving NE

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

The first piece of energy does well on it's own.  It will be interesting to see if this continues and if it can work west some over the next 24hrs.  If the NAM is correct this could be a major hit for Niko and the other SE Mich folks.

snku_acc.us_c.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Just as long as this doesn't hit Stasch. He's already thrown the towel on behalf of all Micigan. Seriously?? Need a tight gradient of 12" in mby to 1" in his. Gotta balance that nice Storm Warning and LES he just got a week ago. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Just as long as this doesn't hit Stasch. He's already thrown the towel on behalf of all Micigan. Seriously?? Need a tight gradient of 12" in mby to 1" in his. Gotta balance that nice Storm Warning and LES he just got a week ago. 

Remember those storms I used to write about that connected my weather to yours? This looks like one of those "classics". Textbook if it works out right.

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3 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Was checking that out just now, also, hi res nam is better.

 

snku_acc.us_c (2).png

I can't remember 1 storm here that has produced 3-6 inches of snow with temps this cold.  I worry in the end dry air will win out up my way.

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27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I can't remember 1 storm here that has produced 3-6 inches of snow with temps this cold.  I worry in the end dry air will win out up my way.

I understand that. It's hard to judge either way when it's this cold. Seeing reduced totals again this run is a good sign the models are picking up on that. Who knows? Other element that will make things difficult is the fact that at times there may be some blizzard conditions or near it with this event.

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2 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I understand that. It's hard to judge either way when it's this cold. Seeing reduced totals again this run is a good sign the models are picking up on that. Who knows? Other element that will make things difficult is the fact that at times there may be some blizzard conditions or near it with this event.

Looking at the GFS it looks like you will meet blizzard criteria between the hours of 48 to 60.

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