OKwx2k4 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 NAM there kinda leaves me in a hole. Next! Lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: NAM there kinda leaves me in a hole. Next! Lol. 0z RDPS does ya better and me too for that matter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Clinton said: 0z RDPS does ya better and me too for that matter. Was checking that out just now, also, hi res nam is better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Was checking that out just now, also, hi res nam is better. I can't remember 1 storm here that has produced 3-6 inches of snow with temps this cold. I worry in the end dry air will win out up my way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 0z GFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, Clinton said: I can't remember 1 storm here that has produced 3-6 inches of snow with temps this cold. I worry in the end dry air will win out up my way. I understand that. It's hard to judge either way when it's this cold. Seeing reduced totals again this run is a good sign the models are picking up on that. Who knows? Other element that will make things difficult is the fact that at times there may be some blizzard conditions or near it with this event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: I understand that. It's hard to judge either way when it's this cold. Seeing reduced totals again this run is a good sign the models are picking up on that. Who knows? Other element that will make things difficult is the fact that at times there may be some blizzard conditions or near it with this event. Looking at the GFS it looks like you will meet blizzard criteria between the hours of 48 to 60. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Then wave 2 goes nuclear this run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Then wave 2 goes nuclear this run... That one has my attention, dry air will not be a problem for that one. You are going to have a great week! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 0z Canadian is good for a lot of us. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 SMI looking good ...... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 I'm not insensitive to you folks up north of me, either who have been left out. I hope you guys pick up a good thump from this too. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kush61 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 STOP your whining !!! What is a whiny person? Whiny describes someone who annoyingly complains or frets about something, especially in a high-pitched voice. YUP !!! That sounds like you. \\\\\ Discard your computer and its internet access to computer models.... here is your new Weather Stone forecasting tool ! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 What cold are we speaking of? Had 27F and strong Feb sun turning things to puddles here this afternoon. I take this as a sign this could come further north with the snow shield than the Op GFS wants to show. The R/GEMs sure hinting at that as well as the latest GVFv16 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Niko said: SMI looking good ...... You should do well over there Niko. Still need to see a few more last minute bumps NW for me to feel better about what some of these global models are showing. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: Remember those storms I used to write about that connected my weather to yours? This looks like one of those "classics". Textbook if it works out right. So nice to have you in the game bud. Cheers to us both doing well, and you doing even better! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Euro not bad for here.. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, jaster220 said: Euro not bad for here.. Like how the euro leaves me in the lowest spot in E. Oklahoma. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Niko said: SMI looking good ...... The LES signal is looking more intriguing on this side of the lake. That may be the wild card for Chicago as it stands right now besides the system snows. Your area is sitting in a good position to get the better part of the storm for us up north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 00z GEFS... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 This system looks to come in two waves up this way as the main energy tracks up through the OHV and tries to go neg tilt but not quite all the way. The first wave comes on Mon and then the the stronger wave on Tues. This was the feature I was hoping to see the models pick up on over the weekend. The GFS is still the flattest with this main energy while the EURO/UKIE are somewhat more amped. Tonight's 00z suite has me more enthusiastic about a potential long duration LES/LEHS set up for NE IL and into NW IN. @indianajohn is in a sweet spot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 00z EPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 00z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 06z NAM...looks better for KC/MO folks... Boy, that LES signal has me intrigued... 00z GFSv16... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 hours ago, Tom said: The LES signal is looking more intriguing on this side of the lake. That may be the wild card for Chicago as it stands right now besides the system snows. Your area is sitting in a good position to get the better part of the storm for us up north. I noticed the LES was cranking up for Chicago yesterday, is it positioned well for you to get in on that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z GFS with it's best run for my area in awhile, also better amounts for northern MO and KC. Big totals around Chicago and nice to see it treats @OKwx2k4better than last nights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z NAM even better, brings some snow back into eastern Iowa. 3km NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z RDPS also good for E. Kan and W. MO as well as S. Mich. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z Euro a touch further south than the 0z. 10:1 map Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Wind Chill Warning and WWA issued. They are going conservative with 1-3 but with how things have gone around here this season it's a good call, hope I can do better though. ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, north central, northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST today. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Map shows I could get 3-4. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: I noticed the LES was cranking up for Chicago yesterday, is it positioned well for you to get in on that? Got 1.5” from that day which was on the lower end of the 2-4” forecast. LES is fickle to begin with so anything that was falling from the sky was a bonus. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Tom said: Got 1.5” from that day which was on the lower end of the 2-4” forecast. LES is fickle to begin with so anything that was falling from the sky was a bonus. As it's modeled now it does not look like the LE will make it as far inland as the last one but this setup has more going for it. Some locals should really get hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 34 minutes ago, Tony said: As it's modeled now it does not look like the LE will make it as far inland as the last one but this setup has more going for it. Some locals should really get hit. 12z NAM not looking bad at all for Sunday night into Monday 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 12z NAMS pushing 7 in for mby. Bless it's heart. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 hours ago, jaster220 said: Just as long as this doesn't hit Stasch. He's already thrown the towel on behalf of all Micigan. Seriously?? Need a tight gradient of 12" in mby to 1" in his. Gotta balance that nice Storm Warning and LES he just got a week ago. Deterministic and ensemble mean QPF for Monday night and Tuesday is trending down as the system is tracking farther south and east. This now looks like only an inch or two and mainly for areas south and east of GRR. Another system later in the week (Thur-Fri) takes a similar track and may be another near miss for us. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 hours ago, Tom said: The LES signal is looking more intriguing on this side of the lake. That may be the wild card for Chicago as it stands right now besides the system snows. Your area is sitting in a good position to get the better part of the storm for us up north. Tbh, I would not mind if this storm took a jog slightly more to the west. This will put me in the heavier snows. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 hours ago, jaster220 said: You should do well over there Niko. Still need to see a few more last minute bumps NW for me to feel better about what some of these global models are showing. Yes, but a movement more to the NW will provide heavier amounts of snowfall for mby, but not complaining at all. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 hours ago, jaster220 said: Euro not bad for here.. Not a bad run at all. Gives Detroit a little over a foot. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Houston is gonna see powder from this. The couple of times it snowed when I grew up there, we got slop. 4 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 13, 2021 Report Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, FAR_Weather said: Houston is gonna see powder from this. The couple of times it snowed when I grew up there, we got slop. This is an unprecedented event for them down there. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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