Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: This is the odd storm where the outlier model, which is also definitely the most dry, is the euro. I still like a 4-6 call over my region for the 1st wave. Trends are our friends. If I get under that convective thunder band, I'll be one excited fella. I think your 4-6 is a good call on that first wave. I still worry about dry air here, I'll feel better when the flakes start to fly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Canadian looks awesome! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 3z RAP 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Niko said: Canadian looks awesome! Good luck my man. I hope we both get a great snow! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Every Kuchera run will be way overdone in Southeast Texas, even with sfc temps in the low 20s, there's still a massive warm nose to overcome which will slice and dice ratios. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 GEFS avg at a foot depth through both events here. Great avg. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Snow starting up early to my west. Been lightly flurrying for 3 days. Almost like it just can't wait to get started. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'm at 2 degrees with a dew point at -9 so I've got some saturating to do. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: I'm at 2 degrees with a dew point at -9 so I've got some saturating to do. 00z Euro is giving you and KC some hope...I like what I'm seeing in terms of LES/LEHS for MBY... 2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: Snow starting up early to my west. Been lightly flurrying for 3 days. Almost like it just can't wait to get started. I like that comment and it def sounds like mother nature is gearing up for a wild ride down south. You are by far the most patient person on here waiting for a solid period of cold and snow.y winter patter. This is YOUR week to enjoy. I'm hopeful you'll get at least 10" of pure powder to enjoy with your family. I can imagine what it will look like down in OK with the rolling hills and open land. I recall driving through the Ozarks in NE OK and the beauty of the landscape. Now I can imagine what it will look like with a blanket of snow! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 06z NAM coming in HOT for IN/S MI peeps...Chitown looking good as well... 06z NAM 3km... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 00z EPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Many 00z EPS members throw back moisture NW of the Low into the Defo zone which will prob aid in better LEHS across NE IL. This is a great scenario for Chicagoland. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 The new GFSv16 has been rock steady since a couple days ago that this storm would track farther NW than the old GFS and other model guidance. It's not backing down and looking solid for Chitown. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Boom! LOT pulls the trigger and issues a WSW for heavy snow across Cook county with 4-8” of snow expected. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 @Clinton, you getting some good returns? Btw, 06z Euro did bump NW and showing a healthier defo zone swing through your area and up into the lower lakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Tom said: @Clinton, you getting some good returns? Btw, 06z Euro did bump NW and showing a healthier defo zone swing through your area and up into the lower lakes. Good morning and I'm getting some good snow. Very exciting, slept later than I meant to. How awesome to be getting moderate snow at 0 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 @mlgamer and @Jayhawker85looks like the snow is closing in on KC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 The snow is ripping really good right now, visibilities are down and the coffee is flowing. RAP is looking good for the 3-5 inches I am expecting today. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Snow is ripping 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Pic don't do justice but lovin it 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 32 minutes ago, Clinton said: @mlgamer and @Jayhawker85looks like the snow is closing in on KC. Started snowing here roughly 5 AM...a steady snow continues with fairly small flakes. Still, I measured 1/2" on the deck a few minutes ago. I was out on I-70 west of town this morning and it was blowing and drifting in the low areas. Radar shows heavier snow may move into the area. A nice start anyway.... 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just extremely rare for this part of the country to see snow falling this hard at 0. Just got off the phone with my father who is 70 and he says he has never seen it here. I know other parts of the country get this every year but this is a real treat for me. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kush61 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 ... and an almost identical track for another storm later this week ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Last nites Euro looks fantastic as well as other models as well. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z NAM looks great for you guys upstream. @Tom @jaster220 @Niko 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, kush61 said: ... and an almost identical track for another storm later this week ? Fingers crossed it maybe a little further east. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Is this a beauty or what.... 3 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Niko said: Is this a beauty or what.... I accidently posted the 6z NAM earlier. Went back and fixed it, the 12z is even better for ya. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 hours ago, Tom said: Boom! LOT pulls the trigger and issues a WSW for heavy snow across Cook county with 4-8” of snow expected. Wow awesome. Im so confused as to why GRR downplaying this so much to the point that it’s an event not even worthy of any headline 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Already an inch of new snow, the day is off to a great start. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 34 minutes ago, Niko said: Is this a beauty or what.... Man I am loving the NW trend. LE is also going to be HUGE so could be looking at some impressive numbers when all said and done. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Tony said: Man I am loving the NW trend. LE is also going to be HUGE so could be looking at some impressive numbers when all said and done. Exactly......that NW trend has been the theme this year. You guys in Chicago could be looking at some high accumulations b4 all set and done. I have a feeling that by the time these 2 storms are done by weeks end, there will be huge amounts of snow otg. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 52 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z NAM looks great for you guys upstream. @Tom @jaster220 @Niko Thx buddy. Honestly tho Idk what to make of this storm. All these Op maps via Kuchie are eye candy pink and reds on Valentine's Day. Then I see the EPS with it's "few inches" and that has been more the reality this season here. The take-away for me is the trend which at least has not been worse or further SE. Another plowable snow is my goal. Anything bigger would be a plus in my book. In the meantime you and OKwx enjoy a storm of your own for a change. Good Luck! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: Thx buddy. Honestly tho Idk what to make of this storm. All these Op maps via Kuchie are eye candy pink and reds on Valentine's Day. Then I see the EPS with it's "few inches" and that has been more the reality this season here. The take-away for me is the trend which at least has not been worse or further SE. Another plowable snow is my goal. Anything bigger would be a plus in my book. In the meantime you and OKwx enjoy a storm of your own for a change. Good Luck! Thank you buddy as of right now and looking at the radar it looks like the old NAM may have done the best job, we'll see how it finishes out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 47 minutes ago, whatitdo said: Wow awesome. Im so confused as to why GRR downplaying this so much to the point that it’s an event not even worthy of any headline They seem to always be late to the game. I’m sure @jaster220has something to say about this! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Thx buddy. Honestly tho Idk what to make of this storm. All these Op maps via Kuchie are eye candy pink and reds on Valentine's Day. Then I see the EPS with it's "few inches" and that has been more the reality this season here. The take-away for me is the trend which at least has not been worse or further SE. Another plowable snow is my goal. Anything bigger would be a plus in my book. In the meantime you and OKwx enjoy a storm of your own for a change. Good Luck! FWIW, the EPS has been trending wetter and better for us on the NW side of the storm. @Niko @kush61 have been locked in for a couple days now. I’m digging the better LEHS signal into NE IL and the better looking defo zone blossoming NW. I want to see the UKIE/Euro and Canadian come on board. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Pic don't do justice but lovin it Enjoy the #powderday....day time snows are so much more fun. You’ll remember this day for years to come! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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