Jayhawker85 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Good morning! Just woke up and looked out the window and we have about .5 of the fluffy fresh snow on the ground. So glad the dry air didn’t win! Looks like we about to have a break before the 2nd round moves in. Looks like it will be a long snowy Valentine’s Day!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 37 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Thx buddy. Honestly tho Idk what to make of this storm. All these Op maps via Kuchie are eye candy pink and reds on Valentine's Day. Then I see the EPS with it's "few inches" and that has been more the reality this season here. The take-away for me is the trend which at least has not been worse or further SE. Another plowable snow is my goal. Anything bigger would be a plus in my book. In the meantime you and OKwx enjoy a storm of your own for a change. Good Luck! The Hi Rez euro gives me a dusting. The gfs is barely worth mentioning. GRR is being realistic. I think you’ll do decent 3-4” at the worst but these maps showing a foot in SMI are insane and not worth taking seriously. Otherwise the GRR NWS should look for a new job. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 The wind is really blowing the snow around, visibility is not much. I'm going to dry my 16 year old to work today, I think she is relieved by that lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: Is this a beauty or what.... GRR graphic. Worlds apart. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Niko said: It’s amazing how much different the v16 is compared to the older GFS. I think it retires this week iirc. @Tonymentioned it not long ago. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Tom said: It’s amazing how much different the v16 is compared to the older GFS. I think it retires this week iirc. @Tonymentioned it not long ago. Yep, the old GFS is gone. New one rocks! More updated and better equipped. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Tom said: It’s amazing how much different the v16 is compared to the older GFS. I think it retires this week iirc. @Tonymentioned it not long ago. Used to be a decent model. Not sure what happened to it but time to go. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 I’m on my phone and see that the Canadian did tick NW this run. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, Niko said: My forecast from LOT says “new snow accumulation less than one inch” this map says 8.2”. Lol. One of them is way off. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, shakjen said: My forecast from LOT says “new snow accumulation less than one inch” this map says 8.2”. Lol. One of them is way off. I'm going to say LOT is way off! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 15z RAP looks impressive. Some LES for Tom. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 29 minutes ago, tStacsh said: The Hi Rez euro gives me a dusting. The gfs is barely worth mentioning. GRR is being realistic. I think you’ll do decent 3-4” at the worst but these maps showing a foot in SMI are insane and not worth taking seriously. Otherwise the GRR NWS should look for a new job. Looking forward to the forecast discussion at 330 to say the least lol. Idt ive ever seen such disparity 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: Is this a beauty or what.... Soooooo, 12+ via Euro WeenieBell map and 3" via my office. Someone's busting bad it would seem. Almost comical the differences 1 day out. It's why I've had a very difficult time this season getting on board with any system. And so far, most have found some way to avoid delivering here so my hesitancy is justified sadly. 1 hour ago, whatitdo said: Wow awesome. Im so confused as to why GRR downplaying this so much to the point that it’s an event not even worthy of any headline Welcome to your new home office! There are a couple of old-timers up in GR that won't pay us down along the southern tier any attention until 8" is OTG. That's not much of an exaggeration either, as it actually happened here 11-29-11. If it's not a lock via LES they won't react. A last-minute trending synoptic event is almost always an "F grade" with this office. It's been beyond frustrating the 15-ish years I've followed winter wx in this region. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, Clinton said: 15z RAP looks impressive. Some LES for Tom. It’s looking better in today’s 12z suite so far. This could be turning into quite the LES event! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 ORD SREF mean up to 6.3” 7.6” for DTW 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Seeing the euro still tick out 8-9 inches through the first wave is awesome. Saw it as low as 4 as recently as yesterday, so we will see how everything fills in over the next few hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 This looks to be a very weak event for KC....again. Tuesday into Wednesday looks weak to for KC also. Barley snowing here and radar is thinning out. Maybe it will pulse up...NAM suggests we see an uptick in snow tonight through 2pm tomorrow but doesn't have much support from the other models. ( I guess I shouldn't pay too much attention to the model data as it showed inches and inches of snow all of last week for KC and we received ZERO!) Only snow we received was last weekend. Good luck to all the ones that score big here. Happy snow day!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: This looks to be a very weak event for KC....again. Tuesday into Wednesday looks weak to for KC also. Barley snowing here and radar is thinning out. Maybe it will pulse up...NAM suggests we see an uptick in snow tonight through 2pm tomorrow but doesn't have much support from the other models. ( I guess I shouldn't pay too much attention to the model data as it showed inches and inches of snow all of last week for KC and we received ZERO!) Only snow we received was last weekend. Good luck to all the ones that score big here. Happy snow day!!! Don’t worry Mike there is a nice wave moving up from Witchita now that should be here in a couple hours 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Impressive upper level jet! 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Been snowing steady here in Northwest Indiana for a few days now. Just took this pic tho nada on the radar and tiz coming down at a good clip... 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said: Don’t worry Mike there is a nice wave moving up from Witchita now that should be here in a couple hours Looks good on radar in central Kan, the lull was expected. I just measure 2.7in. so the first wave was a hit. I should have 2 more waves before the snow ends Monday afternoon. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Still waiting on the snow to fill in. Some forecasts suggest the heaviest is to come this evening or tonight so we will see. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 This will certainly be a cold snowstorm for SMI and for others as well that are into the path of this storm. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 18z HRRR..... like the NAM, it even pulls enough moisture back into Iowa to drop a light coating in Cedar Rapids. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 18z HRRR is beautiful. Gives Detroit near a foot! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Lot of models still showing 6"+ here through the next 48hrs. Saw a few runs at 3" too. Still looking to see if the snow fills in. It appears to be picking up a bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 @TomBrace yourself........ 2 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 18z HRRR..... like the NAM, it even pulls enough moisture back into Iowa to drop a light coating in Cedar Rapids. Hope the trends continue but as is modeled looking like an Epic event for a huge chunk of the country 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Niko said: @TomBrace yourself........ Lake Shore drive could be shut down again for a 3rd time in history 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Tony said: Lake Shore drive could be shut down again for a 3rd time in history This will be big...."Epic." Chicago is looking golden and locked. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 18z NAM rocking! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'm sitting in a good spot today, light snow keeps redeveloping over mby with heavier returns a few hours to my west moving my way. The snow is drifting but I was able to measure 3.1 in which sadly makes this my largest snowfall of the year. Hoping to add a few more inches tonight and tomorrow. @OKwx2k4 looks like things are ramping up for you. Good luck to everyone! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Winter storm warnings issued for Cook and points south. WWA for points west. opening line of LOT's AFD Boy, what a shift in forecast model guidance compared to 24 hours ago! Based on a discussion with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the changes have to do with a trend toward a stronger system overall, and hence better moisture transport to its backside and in our neck of the woods. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 34 minutes ago, Niko said: @TomBrace yourself........ I wonder if LOT will expand the watch’s and include a couple more counties. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, FV-Mike said: Winter storm warnings issued for Cook and pints south. WWA for points west. opening line of LOT's AFD Boy, what a shift in forecast model guidance compared to 24 hours ago! Based on a discussion with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the changes have to do with a trend toward a stronger system overall, and hence better moisture transport to its backside and in our neck of the woods. Bam! That’s what I was hoping for. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Tom said: I wonder if LOT will expand the watch’s and include a couple more counties. They have a little time to adjust so they are probably waiting for the 0z runs to see if there are any changes to going forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 O'hare point forecast updated to 6-10 inches 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, Clinton said: I'm sitting in a good spot today, light snow keeps redeveloping over mby with heavier returns a few hours to my west moving my way. The snow is drifting but I was able to measure 3.1 in which sadly makes this my largest snowfall of the year. Hoping to add a few more inches tonight and tomorrow. @OKwx2k4 looks like things are ramping up for you. Good luck to everyone! Clinton, I hadn't noticed that this afternoon Wichita upgraded to a WSW for a lot of their forecast area for higher accumulations...I wonder if that might be expanded towards you by KC NWS later. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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