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Valentines and Presidents Day Oklahoma and Mid West Smasher.


Clinton

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37 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx buddy. Honestly tho Idk what to make of this storm. All these Op maps via Kuchie are eye candy pink and reds on Valentine's Day. Then I see the EPS with it's "few inches" and that has been more the reality this season here. The take-away for me is the trend which at least has not been worse or further SE. Another plowable snow is my goal. Anything bigger would be a plus in my book.

In the meantime you and OKwx enjoy a storm of your own for a change. Good Luck!

The Hi Rez euro gives me a dusting.  The gfs is barely worth mentioning.  GRR is being realistic.  I think you’ll do decent 3-4” at the worst but these maps showing a foot in SMI are insane and not worth taking seriously.  Otherwise the GRR NWS should look for a new job.  

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Just now, Tom said:

It’s amazing how much different the v16 is compared to the older GFS.  I think it retires this week iirc.  @Tonymentioned it not long ago.

Yep, the old GFS is gone. New one rocks! More updated and better equipped.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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29 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

The Hi Rez euro gives me a dusting.  The gfs is barely worth mentioning.  GRR is being realistic.  I think you’ll do decent 3-4” at the worst but these maps showing a foot in SMI are insane and not worth taking seriously.  Otherwise the GRR NWS should look for a new job.  

Looking forward to the forecast discussion at 330 to say the least lol. Idt ive ever seen such disparity

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Is this a beauty or what....

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210214/72a8c7aa6ceafd218cc251b4189fa93b.jpg&key=7c8889ba16a923c9eceb73d5f69e87c7a79113c76a625bbb0341a18318a70130

Soooooo, 12+ via Euro WeenieBell map and 3" via my office. Someone's busting bad it would seem. Almost comical the differences 1 day out. It's why I've had a very difficult time this season getting on board with any system. And so far, most have found some way to avoid delivering here so my hesitancy is justified sadly.

1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

Wow awesome. Im so confused as to why GRR downplaying this so much to the point that it’s an event not even worthy of any headline

Welcome to your new home office! There are a couple of old-timers up in GR that won't pay us down along the southern tier any attention until 8" is OTG. That's not much of an exaggeration either, as it actually happened here 11-29-11. If it's not a lock via LES they won't react. A last-minute trending synoptic event is almost always an "F grade" with this office. It's been beyond frustrating the 15-ish years I've followed winter wx in this region. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This looks to be a very weak event for KC....again. Tuesday into Wednesday looks weak to for KC also.  Barley snowing here and radar is thinning out. Maybe it will pulse up...NAM suggests we see an uptick in snow tonight through 2pm tomorrow but doesn't have much support from the other models. ( I guess I shouldn't pay too much attention to the model data as it showed inches and inches of snow all of last week for KC and we received ZERO!) Only snow we received was last weekend. 

Good luck to all the ones that score big here. Happy snow day!!!

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2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

This looks to be a very weak event for KC....again. Tuesday into Wednesday looks weak to for KC also.  Barley snowing here and radar is thinning out. Maybe it will pulse up...NAM suggests we see an uptick in snow tonight through 2pm tomorrow but doesn't have much support from the other models. ( I guess I shouldn't pay too much attention to the model data as it showed inches and inches of snow all of last week for KC and we received ZERO!) Only snow we received was last weekend. 

Good luck to all the ones that score big here. Happy snow day!!!

Don’t worry Mike there is a nice wave moving up from Witchita now that should be here in a couple hours 

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1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Don’t worry Mike there is a nice wave moving up from Witchita now that should be here in a couple hours 

Looks good on radar in central Kan, the lull was expected.  I just measure 2.7in. so the first wave was a hit.  I should have 2 more waves before the snow ends Monday afternoon.

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This will certainly be a cold snowstorm for SMI and for others as well that are into the path of this storm.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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18z HRRR..... like the NAM, it even pulls enough moisture back into Iowa to drop a light coating in Cedar Rapids.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Tony said:

Lake Shore drive could be shut down again for a 3rd time in history

This will be big...."Epic." Chicago is looking golden and locked.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm sitting in a good spot today, light snow keeps redeveloping over mby with heavier returns a few hours to my west moving my way.  The snow is drifting but I was able to measure 3.1 in which sadly makes this my largest snowfall of the year.  Hoping to add a few more inches tonight and tomorrow.  @OKwx2k4 looks like things are ramping up for you.  Good luck to everyone!

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Winter storm warnings issued for Cook and points south. WWA for points west.  opening line of LOT's AFD

Boy, what a shift in forecast model guidance compared to 24 hours
ago! Based on a discussion with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC),
the changes have to do with a trend toward a stronger system
overall, and hence better moisture transport to its backside and in
our neck of the woods.

 

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Just now, FV-Mike said:

Winter storm warnings issued for Cook and pints south. WWA for points west.  opening line of LOT's AFD



Boy, what a shift in forecast model guidance compared to 24 hours
ago! Based on a discussion with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC),
the changes have to do with a trend toward a stronger system
overall, and hence better moisture transport to its backside and in
our neck of the woods.

 

Bam!  That’s what I was hoping for.

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11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm sitting in a good spot today, light snow keeps redeveloping over mby with heavier returns a few hours to my west moving my way.  The snow is drifting but I was able to measure 3.1 in which sadly makes this my largest snowfall of the year.  Hoping to add a few more inches tonight and tomorrow.  @OKwx2k4 looks like things are ramping up for you.  Good luck to everyone!

Clinton, I hadn't noticed that this afternoon Wichita upgraded to a WSW for a lot of their forecast area for higher accumulations...I wonder if that might be expanded towards you by KC NWS later.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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