tStacsh Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 GRR has issued a WWA for my area. 2-4”. This really trended north. 4-7” for points SE of my area. Still haven’t issued an updated discussion. But what a fail. I know there is a sharp cutoff but they completed disregarded all the models outside of the old gfs. They have not been good this winter. I guess I put too much faith in the experts. When it all comes down to it, anyone can read a computer and guess. They had 2-4” before the Arctic blast and storm last week and ended up going with 1-2 feet last minute lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Clinton, I hadn't noticed that this afternoon Wichita upgraded to a WSW for a lot of their forecast area for higher accumulations...I wonder if that might be expanded towards you by KC NWS later. That would be awesome. I just looked at the 19z RAP and it indicated I could add 4 more inches. How is it going for you today? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, FV-Mike said: O'hare point forecast updated to 6-10 inches This is getting really interesting. I’m starting to get pretty excited about this. Haven’t seen a set up like this for Chicago in a very long tome. Very rare to say the least. @Jaycee, your dream may come true! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Clinton said: That would be awesome. I just looked at the 19z RAP and it indicated I could add 4 more inches. How is it going for you today? I picked up a solid 1.5" this morning. I was hoping for another inch from the wave moving in, but it is pretty light so far. Looks like I need to make a fast trip to Chicago...lol 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Tom said: This is getting really interesting. I’m starting to get pretty excited about this. Haven’t seen a set up like this for Chicago in a very long tome. Very rare to say the least. @Jaycee, your dream may come true! Don't want to get our hopes up but have to say several of the last several events had lake enhancement and LE so have to go with the trend. If the numbers pan out as advertised then we are in for a treat 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Is there an area nearby that measures downtown Chicago? I know ORD is technically Chicago’s measuring station. But if there’s going to be a variance of amounts, hopefully someone can get a measurement near LSD. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Tonight Chance Snow then Snow Low: 10 °F Washington's Birthday Snow High: 18 °F Monday Night Heavy Snow Low: 10 °F Tuesday Snow Likely High: 20 °F Sweet! Storm Total so far is calling for 6-10"+ 1 1 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Is there an area nearby that measures downtown Chicago? I know ORD is technically Chicago’s measuring station. But if there’s going to be a variance of amounts, hopefully someone can get a measurement near LSD. Midway is the only other official station...maybe there are some COOP’s in the city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Personally think NWS should have gone w a WSW, not an WWA. "Big Mistake" on their end. These snow number accumulations meet warning criteria. Not sure what they are thinking. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: Personally think NWS should have gone w a WSW, not an WWA. "Big Mistake" on their end. These snow number accumulations meet warning criteria. Not sure what they are thinking. Yep. They could upgrade but you can see the GRR influence in the conference call. I'm now less than a county north of a Warning. How frustrating if I'm again left standing on the sidelines. IWX d cause reduced visibility in mainly rural areas. Drifting snow will be an issue with the steady winds making some roads impassable at times. taking all these factors into account and extensive collaboration, it was agreed to place much of the forecast area in a Winter Storm Warning and cover NW areas in an advisory. If any further NW shift occurs in the track, this area could also need to be included in the warning. Now you may ask why we didn`t adjust the timing of the headlines to match the greatest threat. Since there may not be a lull in the snowfall for all areas and some minor travel issues are possible late tonight into Monday morning it was decided to keep headlines as simple as possible. While confidence has increased, some changes in the forecast are still possible with the axis of the heaviest snowfall possibly still shifting. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: Yep. They could upgrade but you can see the GRR influence in the conference call. I'm now less than a county north of a Warning. How frustrating if I'm again left standing on the sidelines. IWX d cause reduced visibility in mainly rural areas. Drifting snow will be an issue with the steady winds making some roads impassable at times. taking all these factors into account and extensive collaboration, it was agreed to place much of the forecast area in a Winter Storm Warning and cover NW areas in an advisory. If any further NW shift occurs in the track, this area could also need to be included in the warning. Now you may ask why we didn`t adjust the timing of the headlines to match the greatest threat. Since there may not be a lull in the snowfall for all areas and some minor travel issues are possible late tonight into Monday morning it was decided to keep headlines as simple as possible. While confidence has increased, some changes in the forecast are still possible with the axis of the heaviest snowfall possibly still shifting. I strongly believe that by tomorrow mornings 4am package or at the very latest by the 4pm package, we will get upgraded to a WSW. I am thinking that they wanted to separate both parts, so w part 1 going w a WWA and part 2 will eventually put us in a WSW that will involve the bigger snow accumulations. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 The ENTIRE state of Texas is in a winter storm warning. Wow 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Already snowing at my dad's house near Houston. They were supposed to get freezing rain till midnight. 6 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: This has been as close to a complete bust as possible without actually being a complete bust. According to all the models, KC is done. And we got MAYBE an inch despite all models as of this morning giving us between 3 and 7 inches today/tonight. It's remarkable how bad the models are and how well KC avoids snow. Dang it, I hoped you guys would do better. I hope the band tomorrow adds to your totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 hours ago, Sciascia said: Is there an area nearby that measures downtown Chicago? I know ORD is technically Chicago’s measuring station. But if there’s going to be a variance of amounts, hopefully someone can get a measurement near LSD. I usually do! Haha but I’m actually in Miami right now, where it’s 80 degrees at 7pm. I hope the snow sticks around til I’m gone, I have a feeling the lake effect will pummel my area (Edgewater/Evanston, less than 1/4 mile inland from the lake). 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Only very fine flakes so far this afternoon and evening. Still waiting on the main show to roll through. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: This has been as close to a complete bust as possible without actually being a complete bust. According to all the models, KC is done. And we got MAYBE an inch despite all models as of this morning giving us between 3 and 7 inches today/tonight. It's remarkable how bad the models are and how well KC avoids snow. The dry air was definitely too strong today. I’m in Lawrence and i think we have about 2 inches today. Hopeful for another band as the low moves by tomorrow morning 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Jaycee said: I usually do! Haha but I’m actually in Miami right now, where it’s 80 degrees at 7pm. I hope the snow sticks around til I’m gone, I have a feeling the lake effect will pummel my area (Edgewater/Evanston, less than 1/4 mile inland from the lake). Hope you get to enjoy some of it when you get back. Will be a great hit for your area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looks "Fantastic"....Locked! 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Local forecasters are saying that SEMI will go to a WSW by tomorrow for part 2 of the storm, as heavy snow spreads late in the day, right after a small lull. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 3km nam at 18z still looked favorable for great snow here tonight through tomorrow. Not worried about overguessing it yet. I'm at around 4-6 on this first part. Think it can still cover my guess. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, Niko said: Local forecasters are saying that SEMI will go to a WSW by tomorrow for part 2 of the storm, as heavy snow spreads late in the day, right after a small lull. Your going to get crushed. Tomorrow's storm and the system behind it look amazing for your area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 31 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: The dry air was definitely too strong today. I’m in Lawrence and i think we have about 2 inches today. Hopeful for another band as the low moves by tomorrow morning It looks like we have a good chance of adding a extra 2 in tomorrow. Also think we could add a few more Tuesday night thru Wednesday morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Clinton said: It looks like we have a good chance of adding a extra 2 in tomorrow. Also think we could add a few more Tuesday night thru Wednesday morning. I hope so! This is our true last chance of winter so I’m all for it before spring settles in! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 00z HRRR 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 0z HRRR very bullish with the main low tonight and tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 00z HRRR Can you tug it west just a little bit? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 57 minutes ago, Clinton said: Your going to get crushed. Tomorrow's storm and the system behind it look amazing for your area. Thanks amigo..they are calling for 8-12"+. Im going to lowball it and say 6-10"+. You do well also w 6"+. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Winds will also be a factor w this snowstorm.......there is going to be some serious blowing and drifting of the snow. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Shutdown snowstorm for the Detroit Metro Area! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 This is the newest HRW WRF-ARW at midnight tomorrow. Great googly-moogly. Obviously still snowing to the effect of 19.3 at ORD by the end of the run. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 0z RDPS is a little further west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kush61 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Is there to be any "thunder snow" accompanying this system ? Last time that happened in this vicinity was Jan. 14 1999, Mel Lastman called in the army to help shovel ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Gulf enhancement is going to be evident in Southeast Texas. Already thundersnow confirmed there. 3 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Memphis already has an inch from a weak wave earlier today. Oh, and there's another storm Wednesday after 6-10" with this one. There probably hasn't been snow on top of snow there since the 80s. I've been at work most of the day so I've been trying to catch up on everything going on everywhere lol. UNL cancelled in person stuff tomorrow and Tuesday, but still has virtual. Fortunately both of my proffesors tomorrow cancelled! 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Roads in Houston are a mess cuz the rain earlier made TxDOT's effort to treat roads futile. Already multiple freeways closed and a pileup. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 A little bit of a west trend tonight for snowfall tomorrow. 0z GFS 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 2"/hr rates reported near San Antonio. The absurdity of what's happening in Texas right now is unreal. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 It's starting at my dad's house in Spring, just North of Houston. 7 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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